Knowledge that Transforms

Researchers in a variety of important economic literatures have assumed that current income variables as proxies for lifetime income variables follow the textbook errors-in-variables model. In our analysis of Social Security records containing nearly career-long earnings histories for the Health and Retirement Study sample, we find that the relationship between current and lifetime earnings departs substantially from the textbook model in ways that vary systematically over the life cycle. Our results can enable more appropriate analysis of, and correction for, errors-in-variables bias in any research that uses current earnings to proxy for lifetime earnings.

Countries? ” If there exist aggregate production functions representing approximately the same technology across countries, then the vastly higher output per worker in richer countries implies that capital per worker must be much higher in these countries, and diminishing returns implies a much lower rate of return to capital in rich than in poor countries. The details of the calculation depend, of course, on specific assumptions. However, the magnitudes are sufficiently large that the absence of massive capital flows to the poorest countries is properly seen as a fundamental puzzle. Lucas considers the possibility that capital market imperfections permit the existence of a gap in the returns to capital across countries, but argues that this cannot account for most of the difference implied by his calculation. He, therefore, raises the possibility that there are huge differences in human capital across countries, and externalities associated with these differences imply that returns to physical capital are not so different across countries with even large differences in physical capital per worker. Accordingly, there is no mystery about the lack of physical capital flows. In contrast, Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther C. Duflo (2005) review a good deal of evidence, mostly from India, showing widely varying and often very high real interest rates. In addition, ∗We are grateful to Marcus Noland for the initial conversation that led to this paper, to Erica Field, Barbara O’Brien and Yuichi Kitamura for valuable comments, and to Hyungi Woo, Tavneet Suri, and Patrick Amihere

We study cross-country differences in the aggregate production function when skilled and unskilled labor are imperfect substitutes. We find that there is a skill bias in cross-country technology differences. Higher-income countries use skilled labor more efficiently than lower-income countries, while they use unskilled labor relatively and, possibly, absolutely less efficiently. We also propose a simple explanation for our findings: rich countries, which are skilled-labor abundant, choose technologies that are best suited to skilled workers; poor countries, which are unskilled-labor abundant, choose technologies more appropriate to unskilled workers. We discuss alternative explanations, such as capital-skill complementarity and differences in schooling quality.

All in the Extended Family: Effects of Grandparents, Aunts, and Uncles on Educational Attainment by Linda Datcher Loury. Published in volume 96, issue 2, pages 275-278 of American Economic Review, May 2006

We develop a model in which firms set impersonal salary levels before matching with workers. Wages fall relative to any competitive equilibrium while profits rise almost as much, implying little inefficiency. Furthermore, the best firms gain the most from the system while wages become compressed. In light of our results, we discuss the performance of alternative institutions and the recent antitrust case against the National Resident Matching Program.

Using large samples of estate tax returns, we construct new series on wealth concentration in Paris and France from 1807 to 1994. Inequality increased until 1914 because industrial and financial estates grew dramatically. Then, adverse shocks, rather than a Kuznets-type process, led to a massive decline in inequality. The very high wealth concentration prior to 1914 benefited retired individuals living off capital income (rentiers) rather than entrepreneurs. The very rich were in their seventies and eighties, whereas they had been in their fifties a half century earlier and would be so again after World War II. Our results shed new light on ongoing debates about wealth inequality and growth.

This paper investigates how noisy evaluation of worker skills affects human capital investments and hiring. Individuals distort investments toward skills that most managers can evaluate. Dynamically, when workers become managers, managerial expertise can become increasingly skewed over time, raising investment distortions and reducing output. If firms select managerial expertise strategically, efficient investments can be retrieved when (a) identifying whether workers' skills matter more than distinguishing among skilled workers, and (b) initial investment distortions are small. Otherwise, such strategic design worsens long-run outcomes. Finally, we determine when short-run affirmative action policies are effective.

We examine the role of banks in the transmission of monetary policy. In economies where banks use real demand deposits to finance their lending, fluctuations in the timing of production can force banks to scramble for real liquidity, or even fail, which can greatly affect lending and aggregate output. The adverse effect on output can be reduced if banks finance with nominal deposits. Nominal deposits also open a “financial liquidity” channel for monetary policy to affect real activity. The banking system may be better off, however, issuing real deposits (e.g., foreign exchange denominated) under some circumstances.

Studies of the impact of migration on sending households (e.g., Dean Yang, 2004; Alejandra C. Edwards and Manuelita Ureta, 2003) have largely neglected the fact that certain allocations can only be imperfectly monitored when household members are not coresident (see Ralph Chami et al., 2003, for an exception). In this case, allocations can be coordinated only to the extent that they can be verified, and household decision making may not be fully cooperative. The existence of such behavior among household members would suggest that expanding opportunities for migration will have different effects on expenditure patterns than simply increasing the amount of income received by the household. Changes in earned income and the potential to earn income will affect bargaining among spouses, but noncooperative behavior will have an additional effect on the final distribution of household resources. With the