Knowledge that Transforms

The study explores the influence of domestic competition on international trade performance, using data from a broad sample of Japanese industries. Domestic rivalry is measured directly using market-share instability rather than employing structural variables such as seller concentration. We find robust evidence that domestic rivalry has a positive and significant relationship with trade performance measured by world export share, particularly when R&D intensity reveals opportunities for dynamic improvement and innovation. Conversely, trade protection reduces export performance. These findings support the view that local competition—not monopoly, collusion, or a sheltered home market— pressures dynamic improvement that leads to international competitiveness.

We use panel data to analyze the determinants of speaking fluency and wages of immigrants. Our model takes account of two problems that may bias OLS estimates of the impact of speaking fluency on earnings. First, subjective variables on an ordinal discrete scale, such as self-reported language ability, can suffer from misclassification errors. The model decomposes misclassification errors into a time-persistent and a time-varying component. Second, the model accounts for correlated unobserved heterogeneity in language and earnings equation. The main finding is that these two generalizations of the standard model both lead to substantial changes in the estimated effect of speaking fluency on earnings.

We test the hypothesis that price discrimination increases with competition in the airline market. Using a large cross section of tickets offered by several carriers on various routes, we approximate price discrimination with marginal implicit prices of ticket restrictions that carriers typically use to price discriminate: Saturday-night stayover re-quirements and advanced-purchase discounts. We find that the restrictions are associated with lower airfares, but that the discounts are smaller on routes with higher market concentration. The results suggest that price dispersion attributed to ticket restrictions increases as markets becomemore competitive.

In this paper, we examine empirically whether risk pooling is more advantageous among altruistic compared to selfish agents in a framework where individuals cannot make binding commitments. In particular, we incorporate altuism into a model of risk sharing under imperfect commitment and use simulation methods to establish tests of the roles of both altruism and commitment problems in determining the extent of insurance and the intertemporal movements in interhousehold transfers. The tests are carried out using three panel data sets from two countries of rural South Asia that provide detailed information on transfers and enable the measurement of income shocks. The estimates provide strong support for the notion that imperfect commitment substantially constrains informal transfer arrangements, whether kin-based or not, but also provide evidence that altruism plays an important role in ameliorating commitment constraints and thus in increasing the gains from income pooling.

This paper proposes a measure of dynamic comovement between (possibly many) time series and names it cohesion. The measure is defined in the frequency domain and is appropriate for processes that are costationary, possibly after suitable transformations. In the bivariate case, the measure reduces to dynamic correlation and is related, but not equal, to the well known quantities of coherence and coherency. Dynamic correlation on a frequency band equals (static) correlation of bandpass-filtered series. Moreover, long-run correlation and cohesion relate in a simple way to co-integration. Cohesion is useful to study problems of business-cycle synchronization, to investigate short-run and long-run dynamic properties of multiple time series, and to identify dynamic clusters. We use state income data for the United States and GDP data for European nations to provide an empirical illustration that is focused on the geographical aspects of business-cycle fluctuations.

This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the ‘prime saving years’ (40 to 64), and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by recent claims that the aging of the ‘baby boom’ cohort is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values, and by predictions that asset prices will decline when this group reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from repeated cross sections of the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that, whereas age-wealth profiles rise sharply when households are in their thirties and forties, they decline much more gradually when households are in their retirement years. When these data are used to generate ‘projected asset demands’ based on the projected future age structure of the U.S. population, they do not show a sharp decline in asset demand between 2020 and 2050. The paper considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock, using data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Although theoretical models generally suggest that equilibrium returns on financial assets will vary in response to changes in population age structure, it is difficult to find robust evidence of such relationships in the time series data. This is partly due to the limited power of statistical tests based on the few ‘effective degrees of freedom’ in the historical record of age structure and asset returns. These results suggest caution in projecting large future changes in asset values on the basis of shifting demographics. Although the projected asset demand does display some correlation with the price-dividend ratio on corporate stocks, this does not portend a sharp prospective decline in asset values, because the projected asset demand variable does not fall in future decades.

We use a sample of tenth-graders to test for peer-group influences on the propensity to engage in five activities: drug use, alcohol drinking, cigarette smoking, church going, and the likelihood of dropping out of high school. We find strong evidence of peer-group effects at the school level for all activities. Tests for bias due to endogenous school choice yield mixed results. We find evidence of endogeneity bias for two of the five activities analyzed (drug use and alcohol drinking). On the whole, these results confirm the findings of previous research concerning interaction effects at the neighborhood level.

Previous studies have found that importing goods from R&D-intensive countries raises a country's productivity. In this paper, we investigate econometrically whether foreign direct investment (FDI) also transfers technology across borders. The data indicates that FDI transfers technology, but only in one direction: a country's productivity is increased if it invests in R&D-intensive foreign countries—particularly in recent years—but not if foreign R&D-intensive countries invest in it. Other findings of the paper are that the ratio of foreign-R&D benefits conveyed by outward FDI to foreign R&D benefits conveyed by imports is higher for large countries than it is for small ones, that failure to account for international R&D spillovers leads to upwardly biased estimates of the output elasticity of the domestic R&D capital stock, and that there are much larger transfers of technology from the United States to Japan than there are from Japan to the United States.

We examine the effect of air quality regulation on productivity in some of the most heavily regulated manufacturing plants in the United States, the oil refineries of the Los Angeles (South Coast) Air Basin. We use direct measures of local air pollution regulation to estimate their effects on abatement investment. Refineries not subject to these regulations are used as a comparison group. We study a period of sharply increased regulation between 1979 and 1992. Initial compliance with each regulation cost $3 million per plant and a further $5 million to comply with increased stringency. We construct measures of total factor productivity using Census of Manufacturers output and materials data that report physical quantities of inputs and outputs for the entire population of refineries. Despite high costs associated with the local regulations, productivity in the Los Angeles Air Basin refineries rose sharply between 1987 and 1992, which was a period of decreased refinery productivity in other regions. We conclude that abatement cost measures may grossly overstate the economic cost of environmental regulation as abatement can increase productivity.

This paper uses three years of individual-level data to analyze the determinants of individual preferences over immigration policy in the United States. We have two main empirical results. First, less-skilled workers are significantly more likely to prefer limiting immigrant inflows into the United States. Our finding suggests that, over the time horizons that are relevant to individuals when evaluating immigration policy, individuals think that the U.S. economy absorbs immigrant inflows at least partly by changing wages. Second, we find no evidence that the relationship between skills and immigration opinions is stronger in high-immigration communities.