Knowledge that Transforms

This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill in manufacturing using immigration-induced variation in skill mix across U.S. counties between 1860 and 1930. We find that capital initially complemented both high- and low-skill labor (determined by literacy) and, unlike today, was more complementary with low-skill labor. Around 1890, capital increased its relative complementarity with high-skill labor. Simulations calibrated to our estimates imply the level of capital-skill complementarity after 1890 allowed the manufacturing sector to absorb the large wave of Eastern and Southern European immigrants with only a modest decline in less-skilled relative wages. This would not have been possible under the older production technology.

We model the correlations of brothers' earnings isolating the effect of fathers' earnings from additional residual influences shared between brothers. We separate the two effects by analysing sibling correlations and intergenerational correlations jointly within a unified framework. Our multi-person model of earnings dynamics distinguishes permanent from transitory shocks, allows for heterogeneous life cycle effects and nests previous models. Using data on the Danish population of father/first-son/second-son triplets, we corroborate the findings of studies that do not account for life cycle effects for those aged in their 30's, but find correlations twice as large at 25. The impact of intergenerational effects also varies over age, but is everywhere higher than found in previous studies ?by on average a factor of thirteen? and accounts for most of the sibling correlation. We provide evidence that lack of both life cycle effects and heterogeneous intergenerational transmission across families in previous studies explain the difference. When allowing for differential intergenerational transmission within families, we find mild evidence of stronger transmission to second sons.

How high is unemployment? How low is labor force participation? Is obesity more prevalent among men? How large are household expenditures? We study the sources of the relevant official statistics—the Current Population Survey, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and the Consumer Expenditure Survey—and find that the answers depend on whether we look at easy- or at difficult-to-reach respondents, measured by the number of call and visit attempts made by interviewers. A challenge to the (conditionally-)random-nonresponse assumption, these findings empirically substantiate the theoretical warning against making population-wide estimates from surveys with low response rates.

This study examines the effect of chain store entry on drug quality and prices in India. In contrast to prevailing mom-and-pop pharmacies, chains exploit scale economies in distribution and signaling to offer high-quality drugs at lower cost. We show that chain entry leads to a 5% improvement in drug quality and a 2% decrease in prices at incumbent retailers. Effects are larger for locally distributed drug brands but do not depend on consumer SES. Our findings suggest that in markets with asymmetric information, organizational technologies such as chains can play an important role translating market expansion into higher quality.

We build on the intuitive (static) modeling framework of Rosen (1974) and specify a simple, forward-looking model of location choice. We use this model, along with a series of graphs, to describe the potential biases associated with the static model and relate these biases to the time series of the amenity of interest. We then derive an adjustment factor that allows the potentially biased static estimates to be converted into forwardlooking estimates. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with two empirical applications: the marginal willingness to pay to avoid violent crime and the marginal willingness to pay to avoid air pollution.

Teamwork pervades modern production, yet teamwork can make individual roles difficult to ascertain. The Matthew effect suggests that communities reward eminent team members for great outcomes at the expense of less eminent team members. We study this phenomenon in reverse, investigating credit sharing after damaging events. Our context is article retractions in the sciences. We find that retractions impose little citation penalty on the prior work of eminent coauthors, but less eminent coauthors experience substantial citation declines, especially when teamed with eminent authors. These findings suggest a reverse Matthew effect for team-produced negative events. A Bayesian model provides a candidate interpretation.

Using novel data from the Berea Panel Study, we show that the beauty wage premium for college graduates exists only in jobs where attractiveness is plausibly a productive characteristic. A large premium exists in jobs with substantial amounts of interpersonal interaction but not in jobs that require working with information. This finding is inconsistent with employer taste-based discrimination, which would favor attractive workers in all jobs. Unique task data address concerns that measurement error in the importance of interpersonal tasks may bias empirical work toward finding employer discrimination. Our conclusions are in stark contrast to the findings of existing research.

The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that there is no significant difference in the response of expected inflation to a productivity shock at the ZLB compared to normal times.

Twin births are often construed as a natural experiment in the social and natural sciences on the premise that the occurrence of twins is quasi-random. We present population-level evidence that challenges this premise. Using individual data for 17 million births in 72 countries, we demonstrate that indicators of mother's health, health-related behaviors, and the prenatal environment are systematically positively associated with twin birth. The associations are sizable, evident in richer and poorer countries—evident even among women who do not use in vitro fertilization—and hold for numerous different measures of health. We discuss potential mechanisms, showing evidence that favors selective miscarriage.

We provide evidence of a violation of the informativeness principle whereby lucky successes are overly rewarded. We isolate a quasi-experimental situation where the success of an agent is as good as random. To do so, we use high-quality data on football (soccer) matches and select shots on goal that landed on the goal posts. Using nonscoring shots, taken from a similar location on the pitch, as counterfactuals to scoring shots, we estimate the causal effect of a lucky success (goal) on the evaluation of the player's performance. We find clear evidence that luck is overly influencing managers' decisions and evaluators' ratings. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is likely to be widespread in economic organizations.