Knowledge that Transforms

A number of recent studies have found intranational trade to be excessive compared to international trade, based on a gravity specification. The preferred explanation for this finding has been the presence of formal and informal trade barriers, with associated welfare consequences. If such barriers were indeed the sole culprit, home bias should not exist on the subnational level. We find, however, that home bias is present within U.S. states, suggesting the presence of other causes of excessive home trade.

Saving rates display considerable variation across countries and over time. This paper investigates the factors behind these broad saving disparities using a large cross-country time-series data set constructed for the World Bank Saving project. The paper assesses empirically the policy and non-policy determinants of saving. It follows the empirical literature on saving by using an encompassing empirical approach including a number of potentially relevant saving determinants. However, the paper extends the literature in several dimensions. It uses the largest data set on aggregate saving measures assembled to date. It explores both national and private saving determinants. It uses panel instrumental variable techniques that allow correcting for endogeneity and heterogeneity through "internal" instruments. Finally, it performs a variety of robustness checks to changes in estimation procedures, data samples and model specification.

Grossman and Helpman (1994) present a theory of endogenous protection by explicitly modeling government-industry interactions for which mere “black-box” models previously existed. They obtain a Ramsey pricing-type solution to the provision of protection which emphasizes the role of inverse import penetration ratios and import elasticities. On the lobbying side, the model makes predictions about lobbying competition and lobbying spending according to deadweight costs from protection. The model not only makes for richer theory in terms of rigor and elegance, but its predictions are directly testable. Whether the Grossman-Helman model stands up to real-world data is investigated in this paper. Predictions from both the protection side and lobbying side are tested using cross-sectional U.S. nontariff barrier data. We also compare the “second-generation” Grossman-Helpman model with a more traditional specification. Our results call for serious consideration of this model in the political economy literature.

This paper seeks to identify the characteristics that make individual U.S. banks more likely to fail or be acquired. We use bank-specific information to estimate competing-risks hazard models with time-varying covariates. We use alternative measures of productive efficiency to proxy management quality, and find that inefficiency increases the risk of failure while reducing the probability of a bank's being acquired. Finally, we show that the closer to insolvency a bank is (as reflected by a low equity-to-assets ratio) the more likely is its acquisition.

This paper considers the relationship between inequality and crime using data from urban counties. The behavior of property and violent crime are quite different. Inequality has no effect on property crime but a strong and robust impact on violent crime, with an elasticity above 0.5. By contrast, poverty and police activity have significant effects on property crime, but little on violent crime. Property crime is well explained by the economic theory of crime, while violent crime is better explained by strain and social disorganization theories.

This paper proposes a factor model with infinite dynamics and nonorthogonal idiosyncratic components. The model, which we call the generalized dynamic-factor model, is novel to the literature and generalizes the static approximate factor model of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983), as well as the exact factor model à la Sargent and Sims (1977). We provide identification conditions, propose an estimator of the common components, prove convergence as both time and cross-sectional size go to infinity at appropriate rates, and present simulation results. We use our model to construct a coincident index for the European Union. Such index is defined as the common component of real GDP within a model including several macroeconomic variables for each European country.

Journal Article Review of Economic Studies European Meetings Get access The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 67, Issue 4, October 2000, Page 811, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00155 Published: 01 October 2000

The front matter of the March 2000 issue contains the Table of Contents.