Knowledge that Transforms

We explore an overlooked phenomenon in mortgage markets: repayment of underwater mortgages. Using a sample of mortgages terminated between 2007 and 2016, we show that such repayment indeed occurs, and that it is affected by the same factors commonly used in studies of default: the magnitude of home equity and the borrower’s credit score, which captures default cost as well as liquidity. A novel insight is that underwater repayers, unlike most defaulters, are not liquidity constrained, providing a much cleaner environment to study default costs. We estimate lower bounds on these costs. Our results indicate that default costs are substantial.

We document significant time-series and cross-sectional momentum in 28 equity option factors. Factor momentum is distinct from a static factor portfolio, and prominent option factor models cannot fully explain its returns. Despite high autocorrelation, factor momentum profits are mainly driven by high and persistently different mean factor returns in the case of longer formation periods. Option factor momentum fully subsumes option momentum, but not vice versa. Our findings are robust over time, across various market states, and for alternative momentum strategy constructions.

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We document two distinct mutual fund strategies: “Swinging for the Fences” (SF), in which managers hold stocks with extreme style-adjusted returns on either tail of the return distribution, and “Batting for Average” (BA), in which managers seek stocks with consistently moderate performance. We provide evidence that these strategies are persistent and deliberate. Existing measures of active management and known asset-pricing factors do not explain the strategies. SF attracts more flow, particularly when funds mention specific stock holdings in shareholder reports. SF funds charge higher fees and hold riskier portfolios; yet, they fail to deliver higher risk-adjusted returns. In falsification tests, SF strategies are not present in passive funds, supporting our conclusion that SF and BA are intentional strategies.

Applying a rich model of individuals’ life-cycle utility maximization, I comprehensively evaluate retirement saving plans. Across a range of individual characteristics, access to basic plans with constant expected payouts and no or full annuitization leads to individual utility gains of up to 5.07% of initial wealth and lifetime income ($43,800 in present value terms), and almost all individuals prefer full annuitization and a target-date fund investment strategy. With flexible plans allowing for partial annuitization and non-constant expected payouts, utility gains go up to 5.81%, and most individuals prefer a high degree of annuitization and expected payouts being increasing through retirement.

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.

I show that home ownership decisions across countries and individuals are shaped by a cultural heritage from agriculture. For centuries, dominant assets in preindustrial economies were either land or cattle. Consequently, the type of farming prevailing locally shaped preferences and beliefs about the relative value of immovable and movable assets. This cultural heritage had long-lasting consequences. Today, individuals originating from societies with a history of crop agriculture—where the dominant asset was land—are more likely to be homeowners. For identification, I rely both on home ownership decisions of second-generation immigrants in the United States and on an instrument.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to create economic corridors encompassing two-thirds of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP. Using the inauguration of a railway tunnel between Europe and Asia as a quasi-natural experiment, I demonstrate that countries gaining access to BRI’s freight routes issue significant amounts of high-yield debt. This debt is largely absorbed domestically, reallocating capital away from firms without translating into infrastructure investment. State-owned enterprises appear insulated from tightening financial conditions. I document mechanisms involving political alignment with China, exposure to trade policy uncertainty, and topographic fit based on historical Orient Express routes.