Knowledge that Transforms

In this paper the authors have theoretically derived a net migration equation and estimated it using time-series data for 51 regions over the period 1971-88. The results indicate that the dynamic response of net migration is stable and is significantly related to stock equilibrium changes induced by amenity differentials, relative employment opportunities, relative real wages, and industry composition. Moreover, the explicit linkage of stock equilibrium to stable dynamic flows in the model ensures that any stock disequilibrium will generate a finite migration response sufficient to attain a new stock equilibrium. The estimated parameters determine the speed at which net migration re-establishes stock equilibrium. Coauthors are Dan S. Rickman, Gary L. Hunt, and Michael J. Greenwood. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Neil Bania, Randall W. Eberts, Michael S. Fogarty, Universities and the Startup of New Companies: Can We Generalize from Route 128 and Silicon Valley?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, No. 4 (Nov., 1993), pp. 761-766

This paper uses supervision data from a supplement to the 1977 wave of the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to examine differences in supervision and wages across industries and to evaluate relationships between supervision practices and interindustry wage differentials. The results demonstrate that workers in high-wage industries are supervised with equal or greater stringency than secondary sector workers. Further, the results offer no evidence that interindustry differences in monitoring contribute to interindustry wage differentials. Such findings appear to contradict explanations for industry wage premiums that are motivated by efficiency wage models of shirking. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

The driving forces behind the Turkish export miracle, and in fact its very existence, have remained a matter of debate We show there was a boom. As to contributing factors, import growth in the Middle East in excess of import growth elsewhere made a negative contribution. On exports to non-oil countries, we show that earlier claims that their growth was an accounting artifact are incorrect Moreover, we find that export subsidies were mostly shifted backwards into higher producer profits. The export boom was triggered by macro-economic policies and trade reform that allowed a steady real depreciation of the Lira.

This paper offers a direct econometric test of the proposition that U.S. merger activity has occurred in waves. The authors fit a set of sine waves to the annual time-series data on mergers and find that the sine curves generally provide significant explanatory power. The parameters are statistically significant and reasonable in magnitudes, and the implied timing of peaks and troughs in merger activity is close to the actual dates of the peaks and troughs in the data. Thus, this formal test confirms what others have observed impressionistically: the data are consistent with a wave characterization. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

The literature on the Fisher effect has ignored the potential relationship between inflation and long-term interest rates. Using an expectations model of the term structure of interest rates, the authors establish the conditions under which innovations in short-term inflation will be transmitted to long-term as well as short-term interest rates. Cointegration tests find support for both the Fisher effect and the expectations theory of the term structure. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Using 20 years of longitudinal data on nearly 900 girls aged 0 to 6 in 1968 (19 to 25 in 1987) from the University of Michigans Panel Study of Income Dynamics the authors measure the influence of family background individual characteristics economic resources (or the lack thereof) and the experience of particular disruptive family events on the probability that a teenager will give birth out of wedlock and subsequently apply for and receive welfare....Among the many findings of the investigators is that teenage daughters whose mothers have more education are less likely to give birth out of wedlock that teens whose mothers received welfare are more likely to give birth out of wedlock and receive welfare themselves and that teens who grew up in a home experiencing stressful events (e.g. parental separation geographic moves) are more likely to give birth out of wedlock. (EXCERPT)

The path of the dollar has significantly influenced investment activity in U.S. industry. The effects of both exchange-rate levels and exchange-rate volatility have been more pronounced in the 1980s than in the 1970s. Although aggregate investment data mask some of these relationships, the effects of exchange rates on investment are most pronounced in the disaggregate data for manufacturing durable goods sectors and nonmanufacturing sectors. These relationships also have changed over time. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, in the 1980s real dollar depreciations (appreciations) were likely to be associated with investment contractions (expansions). Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

This paper tests whether the observed dominance of most city-pair markets and airports in the U.S. domestic airline industry by single carriers confers any pricing power on the dominan t firms. The results of fixed-effects estimation indicate that airport dominance by a carrier does confer upon it substantial pricing power , whereas dominance at the route level seems to confer no such pricing power. Additionally, the authors find a positive, yet small, correlation between both route concentration, and price and airport concentration and price. The quantitative importance of airport dominance reveals that the most promising direction for public polic y aimed at improving the industry's performance is to ensure equal acc ess to sunk airport facilities. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

This paper analyzes whether the foreign assistance provided for specific categories of expenditure is shifted among them, contrary to the wishes of donors. It also considers whether aid reduces the tax effort of recipient governments. Econometric results are presented for the Dominican Republic that show that the fungibility of aid has resulted in a thwarting of the intentions of donors. An attempt is made to account for the observed differences in behavior of individual countries in altering expenditures. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.