Knowledge that Transforms

A general equilibrium model of markets for commodities and assets is considered. The author develops the notion of a price system that admits no arbitrage opportunity and demonstrates the fundamenta l role of this concept for the theory of the existence of a competiti ve equilibrium. A price system admits no arbitrage opportunity for a consumer if every bundle of desired commodities has a positive market value. The author proves that the existence of a price system that a dmits no arbitrage opportunity for all consumers is sufficient for th e existence of an equilibrium. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

Time series variables that stochastically trend together form a cointegrated system. OLS and NLS estimators of the parameters of a cointegrating vector are shown to converge in probability to the true parameter value at the rate T11d for any positive d. These estim mators can be written asymptotically in terms of relatively simple nonnormal random matrices which do not depend on the parameters of th e system. These asymptotic representations form the basis for simple and fast Monte Carlo calculations of the limiting distributions of th ese estimators. Asymptotic distributions thus computed are tabulated for several cointegrated processes. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

This paper investigates the consequences of the following modification of Expected Utility theory: instead of requiring independence with respect to probability mixtures of risky prospects, require independence with respect to direct mixing of payments o f risky prospects. A new theory of choice under risk- a so-called Dual theory-is obtained. Within this new theory, the following questions are considered: (1) numerical representation of preferences; (2) properties of the utility function; ( 3) the possibility for resolving the "paradoxes" of Expected Utilit y theory; ( 4) the characterization of risk aversion; and (5) comparative statics. The paper ends with a discussion of other non-Expected Utility theories proposed recently. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

This paper describes a continuous time model of an economy with finitely many infinitely-lived consumers and a finite number of capital goods. Two objectives are achieved. First, recursive (nonadditive) utility functionals are formulated and analyzed. Second, these preference functionals are applied to analyze the nature of efficient allocations in a dynamic economy. Two classes of global turnpike propositions are proven which provide the basis for a model of the long-run distribution of wealth. These propositions also provide new perspective regarding existing stability literature based on additive utilities. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

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This paper specifies and estimates a four-equation disequilibrium model of the consumption goods market in a centrally planned economy (CPE).The data are from Poland for the period 1955-1980, but the analysis is more general and will be applied to other CPEs as soon as the appropriate data sets are complete.This work is based on previous papers of Portes and Winter (P-W) and Charemza and Quandt (C-Q).P-W applied to each of four CPEs a discrete-switching disequilibrium model with a household demand equation for consumption goods, a planners' supply equation, and a "mm" condition stating that the observed quantity transacted is the lesser of the quantities demanded and supplied.C-Q considered how an equation for the adjustment of planned quantities could be integrated into a CPE model with fixed prices and without the usual price adjustment equation.They made plan formation endogenous and permitted the resulting plan variables to enter the equations determining demand and supply.This paper implements the C-Q proposal in the P-W context.It uses a unique new data set of time series for plans for the major macroeconomic variables in Poland and other CPEs.The overall framework is applicable to any large organization which plans economic variables.

This paper characterizes all utility derived demand systmes having Engel curves that are linear in both income and an arbitrary function of income. This class encompasses virtually all utility derived demand systems that have been estimated in the past using ag gregate data with explicit treatment of the problem of aggregation ac ross individuals. It includes extensions of the PIGLOG and PIGL class es that have similar properties to these classes, but allow for more general Engel curve shapes. This paper extends W. M. Gorman's study o f these forms primarily by characterizing systems of rank two. The ap plication of the characterized systems to problems of nesting, separa bility, flexibility, Engel curve analysis, estimation, and aggregatio n are briefly discussed. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

Previous analyses have shown that if a point is to be a core of a majority rule voting game in Euclidean space, when preferences are smooth, then the utility gradients at the point must satisfy certain restrictive symmetry conditions. In this paper, these results are generalized to the case of an arbitrary voting rule, and necessary and sufficient conditions, expressed in terms of the utility gradients of "pivotal" coalitions, are obtained.