Knowledge that Transforms

This paper examines the selection of Mexican migrants to the United States using novel data with rich premigration characteristics that include permanent migrants, return migrants, and migrating households. Results indicate that Mexican migrants are more likely to be young, male, and from rural areas compared to nonmigrants, but they are similar to nonmigrants in cognitive ability and health. Migrants are selected from the middle of the education distribution. Male Mexican migrants are negatively selected on earnings, and this result is largely explained by differential returns to labor market skill between the United States and Mexico rather than proxies for differential costs of migration.

We study the prevalence of informal caregiving to elderly parents by their mature daughters in Europe and the links between parental health, intense (daily) caregiving, and the employment status of daughters. We group data from SHARE into three country pools (North, Central, and South), which differ in the availability of public formal care services and female labor market attachment. There is a strong North-South gradient in the (positive) effect of parental ill health on the probability of daily caregiving. The loss of employment ascribable to daily informal caregiving seems negligible, except in southern countries. We use a time allocation model to provide a link to an empirical IV-treatment effects framework and to interpret our findings.

Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we document that controlling for observable characteristics, household investors' likelihood of entering the stock market within the ensuing five years is about 20% to 30% higher if their parents or children had entered the stock market during the previous five years. By eliminating competing hypotheses such as preference similarity and herding, we argue that these findings highlight the significance of information sharing regarding household financial decisions.

The theoretical effects of labor regulations, such as employment protection legislation (EPL), on innovation is ambiguous. EPL increases job security, and the greater enforceability of job contracts may increase worker investment in innovative activity. But EPL increases firms' adjustment costs, which may lead to underinvestment in activities that are likely to require adjustment, including technologically advanced innovation. In this paper, we find empirical evidence that these effects are at work—in particular, a higher share of multinational enterprise innovative activity in countries with high EPL is technologically advanced.

We document the numerical challenges we experienced estimating random-coefficient demand models as in Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) using two well-known data sets and a thorough optimization design. The optimization algorithms often converge at points where the first- and second-order optimality conditions fail. There are also cases of convergence at local optima. On convergence, the variation in the values of the parameter estimates translates into variation in the models' economic predictions. Price elasticities and changes in consumer and producer welfare following hypothetical merger exercises vary at least by a factor of 2 and up to a factor of 5.

We develop a new distance-based test of localized knowledge spillovers that embeds the concept of control patents. Using microgeographic data, we identify localization distance for each technology class while allowing for spillovers across geographic units. We revisit the debate between Thompson and Fox-Kean (2005a, 2005b) and Henderson, Jaffe, and Trajtenberg (2005) on the existence of localized knowledge spillovers and find solid evidence supporting localization even when using finely grained controls. Unless biases induced by imperfect matching between citing and control patents due to unobserved heterogeneity are extremely large, our distance-based test detects localization for the majority of technology classes.

Recent studies using long-run restrictions question the validity of the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis. We propose an alternative identification that maximizes the contribution of technology shocks to the forecast-error variance of labor productivity at a long but finite horizon. In small-sample Monte Carlo experiments, our identification outperforms standard long-run restrictions by significantly reducing the bias in the short-run impulse responses and raising their estimation precision. Unlike its long-run restriction counterpart, when our Max Share identification technique is applied to U.S. data, it delivers the robust result that hours worked responds negatively to positive technology shocks.

The causes of the Protestant Reformation have long been debated. This paper seeks to revive and econometrically test the theory that the spread of the Reformation is linked to the spread of the printing press. I test this theory by analyzing data on the spread of the press and the Reformation at the city level. An econometric analysis that instruments for omitted variable bias with a city's distance from Mainz, the birthplace of printing, suggests that cities with at least one printing press by 1500 were at minimum 29 percentage points more likely to be Protestant by 1600.

We investigate the impacts of providing low-income Chilean adolescents with information about how to finance higher education and ask whether providing parents with the same information magnifies the effects on schooling outcomes. We randomly assigned eighth graders and some parents to receive information about aid for higher education. Exposure to information raised college preparatory high school enrollment, primary school attendance, and financial aid knowledge, with gains concentrated among medium- and high-grade students. Parental exposure to information did not significantly magnify these effects. Our results demonstrate that access to relevant information about financial aid affects important schooling choices long before tertiary education begins.

We estimate the local spillovers from research university activity in a sample of urban counties. Our approach uses the interaction between university endowment values and stock market shocks over time for identification. We find statistically significant local spillover effects from university activity. The effects are significantly larger when local universities are more research intensive or local firms are technologically close to universities. Our results suggest that the longer-term effects that universities have on their local economies may grow over time as the composition of local industries adjusts to take advantage of the heterogeneous knowledge spillovers we identify.