Knowledge that Transforms

A principal allocates an object to one of I agents. Each agent values receiving the object and has private information regarding the value to the principal of giving it to him. There are no monetary transfers, but the principal can check an agent’s information at a cost. A favored-agent mechanism specifies a value v* and an agent i*. If all agents other than i* report values below v*, then i* receives the good and no one is checked. Otherwise, whoever reports the highest value is checked and receives the good if and only if her report is confirmed. All optimal mechanisms are essentially randomizations over optimal favored-agent mechanisms. (JEL D82)

Neuroeconomics strives to use knowledge from neuroscience to improve models of decisionmaking. Here we introduce a biologically plausible, drift-diffusion model that is able to jointly predict choice behavior and response times across different choice environments. The model has both normative and positive implications for economics. First, we consistently observe that decisionmakers inefficiently allocate their time to choices for which they are close to indifference. We demonstrate that we can improve subjects' welfare using a simple intervention that puts a time limit on their choices. Second, response times can be used to predict indifference points and the strength of preferences.

We study the Lagos and Wright (2005) model of monetary exchange in the laboratory. With a finite population of sufficiently patient agents, this model has a unique monetary equilibrium and a continuum of non-monetary gift exchange equilibria, some of which Pareto dominate the monetary equilibrium. We find that subjects avoid the gift exchange equilibria in favor of the monetary equilibrium. We also study versions of the model without money where all equilibria involve non-monetary gift exchange. We find that welfare is higher in the model with money than without money, suggesting that money plays a role as an efficiency enhancing coordination device. ( JEL C92, D12, E40, Z13)

We study interdependencies in spousal labor supply by exploiting the design of the French workweek reduction, which introduced exogenous variation in one's spouse's labor supply, at constant earnings. Treated employees work on average two hours less per week. Husbands of treated women respond by reducing their labor supply by about half an hour, consistent with substantial leisure complementarity, and specifically cut the nonusual component of their workweek, leaving usual hours unchanged. Women's response to their husband's treatment is instead weak and rarely statistically significant, possibly due to heavier constraints in the organization of their workweek. (JEL J16, J22, K31)

Robert J. Shiller delivered his Prize Lecture on 8 December 2013 at Aula Magna, Stockholm University.

The endowment effect, the tendency to value possessions more than non-possessions, is a well-known departure from rational choice and has been replicated in numerous settings. We investigate the universality of the endowment effect, its evolutionary significance, and its dependence on environmental factors. We experimentally test for the endowment effect in an isolated and evolutionarily relevant population of hunter-gatherers, the Hadza Bushmen of Northern Tanzania. We find that Hadza living in isolated regions do not display the endowment effect, while Hadza living in a geographic region with increased exposure to modern society and markets do display the endowment effect. (JEL C93, D12, O15)

Do mandatory spending programs such as Medicare improve efficiency? We analyze a model with two parties allocating a fixed budget to a public good and private transfers each period over an infinite horizon. We compare two institutions that differ in whether public good spending is discretionary or mandatory. We model mandatory spending as an endogenous status quo since it is enacted by law and remains in effect until changed. Mandatory programs result in higher public good spending; furthermore, they ex ante Pareto dominate discretionary programs when parties are patient, persistence of power is low, and polarization is low. (JEL C78, E62, H41, H61)

We document some early effects of how mobile devices might change Internet and retail commerce. We present three main findings based on an analysis of eBay's mobile shopping application and core Internet platform. First, early adopters of mobile e-commerce applications appear to be people who already were relatively heavy Internet commerce users. Second, adoption of the mobile shopping application is associated with both an immediate and sustained increase in total platform purchasing, with little evidence of substitution from the core platform. Third, differences in user behavior across the mobile applications and the regular Internet site are not yet so dramatic.

In the American South, postbellum economic development may have been restricted in part by white landowners' access to low-wage black labor. This paper examines the impact of the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 on black out-migration and subsequent agricultural development. Flooded counties experienced an immediate and persistent out-migration of black population. Over time, landowners in flooded counties modernized agricultural production and increased its capital intensity relative to landowners in nearby similar non-flooded counties. Landowners resisted black out-migration, however, benefiting from the status quo system of labor-intensive agricultural production. (JEL J15, J43, N32, N52, N92, Q54, R23)

In a class of trade models which satisfy a constant elasticity gravity equation, the welfare gains from trade can be computed using the open economy domestic trade share and a constant trade elasticity. The measured welfare gains from trade from this quantitative approach are typically relatively modest. In this paper, we suggest a channel for welfare gains that this quantitative approach typically abstracts from: trade-induced changes in domestic productivity. Using a model of sequential production, in which trade induces a reorganization of production that raises domestic productivity, we show that the welfare gains from trade can become arbitrarily large.