We implement a novel approach to derive investor sentiment from messages posted on social media before we explore the relation between online investor sentiment and intraday stock returns. Using an extensive dataset of messages posted on the microblogging platform StockTwits, we construct a lexicon of words used by online investors when they share opinions and ideas about the bullishness or the bearishness of the stock market. We demonstrate that a transparent and replicable approach significantly outperforms standard dictionary-based methods used in the literature while remaining competitive with more complex machine learning algorithms. Aggregating individual message sentiment at half-hour intervals, we provide empirical evidence that online investor sentiment helps forecast intraday stock index returns. After controlling for past market returns, we find that the first half-hour change in investor sentiment predicts the last half-hour S&P 500 index ETF return. Examining users’ self-reported investment approach, holding period and experience level, we find that the intraday sentiment effect is driven by the shift in the sentiment of novice traders. Overall, our results provide direct empirical evidence of sentiment-driven noise trading at the intraday level

Despite the growing use of subjective performance incentives used in executive bonuses, empirical evidence on their effectiveness remains inconclusive. This study explores three aspects of subjective metrics in bonus plan design: their prevalence, the goals they target, and their impact on managerial behavior and firm outcomes. First, I document 53.8 percent of CEO bonus plans include at least one subjective performance measure, and among these plans, an average of 38.9 percent of total bonus weight is allocated to these measures. Using machine learning, I show subjective metrics target incentives related to employees, firm culture, and executive performance. Second, using the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a quasi-exogenous shock to contract design, I find firms increase the number and weight of subjective metrics by 22.9 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively. Finally, I find the increasing prevalence of subjective performance measures positively influences CEO effort, corporate culture, and innovation. Data Availability: The data used in this study are from public sources and available upon request

Folklore is the collection of traditional beliefs, customs, and stories of a community passed through the generations by word of mouth. We introduce to economics a unique catalog of oral traditions spanning approximately 1,000 societies. After validating the catalog's content by showing that the groups' motifs reflect known geographic and social attributes, we present two sets of applications. First, we illustrate how to fill in the gaps and expand upon a group's ethnographic record, focusing on political complexity, high gods, and trade. Second, we discuss how machine learning and human classification methods can help shed light on cultural traits, using gender roles, attitudes toward risk, and trust as examples. Societies with tales portraying men as dominant and women as submissive tend to relegate their women to subordinate positions in their communities, both historically and today. More risk-averse and less entrepreneurial people grew up listening to stories wherein competitions and challenges are more likely to be harmful than beneficial. Communities with low tolerance toward antisocial behavior, captured by the prevalence of tricksters being punished, are more trusting and prosperous today. These patterns hold across groups, countries, and second-generation immigrants. Overall, the results highlight the significance of folklore in cultural economics, calling for additional applications

While hypothesis testing is a highly formalized activity, hypothesis generation remains largely informal. We propose a systematic procedure to generate novel hypotheses about human behavior, which uses the capacity of machine learning algorithms to notice patterns people might not. We illustrate the procedure with a concrete application: judge decisions about whom to jail. We begin with a striking fact: the defendant’s face alone matters greatly for the judge’s jailing decision. In fact, an algorithm given only the pixels in the defendant’s mug shot accounts for up to half of the predictable variation. We develop a procedure that allows human subjects to interact with this black-box algorithm to produce hypotheses about what in the face influences judge decisions. The procedure generates hypotheses that are both interpretable and novel: they are not explained by demographics (e.g., race) or existing psychology research, nor are they already known (even if tacitly) to people or experts. Though these results are specific, our procedure is general. It provides a way to produce novel, interpretable hypotheses from any high-dimensional data set (e.g., cell phones, satellites, online behavior, news headlines, corporate filings, and high-frequency time series). A central tenet of our article is that hypothesis generation is a valuable activity, and we hope this encourages future work in this largely “prescientific” stage of science

What happens when patients suddenly stop their medications? We study the health consequences of drug interruptions caused by large, abrupt, and arbitrary changes in price. Medicare's prescription drug benefit as-if-randomly assigns 65-year-olds a drug budget as a function of their birth month, beyond which out-of-pocket costs suddenly increase. Those facing smaller budgets consume fewer drugs and die more: mortality increases 0.0164 percentage points per month (13.9%) for each $100 per month budget decrease (24.4%). This estimate is robust to a range of falsification checks and lies in the 97.8th percentile of 544 placebo estimates from similar populations that lack the same idiosyncratic budget policy. Several facts help make sense of this large effect. First, patients stop taking drugs that are both high value and suspected to cause life-threatening withdrawal syndromes when stopped. Second, using machine learning, we identify patients at the highest risk of drug-preventable adverse events. Contrary to the predictions of standard economic models, high-risk patients (e.g., those most likely to have a heart attack) cut back more than low-risk patients on exactly those drugs that would benefit them the most (e.g., statins). Finally, patients appear unaware of these risks. In a survey of 65-year-olds, only one-third believe that stopping their drugs for up to a month could have any serious consequences. We conclude that far from curbing waste, cost sharing is itself highly inefficient, resulting in missed opportunities to buy health at very low cost ($11,321 per life-year

Economic analysis has largely avoided questions about the way in which economic agents make choices when confronted by a perpetually novel and evolving world. As a result, there are outstanding questions of great interest to economics in areas ranging from technological innovation to strategic learning in games. This is so, despite the importance of the questions, because standard tools and formal models are ill-tuned for answering such questions. However, recent advances in computer-based modeling techniques, and in the subdiscipline of artificial intelligence called machine learning, offer new possibilities. Artificial adaptive agents (AAA) can be defined and can be tested in a wide variety of artificial worlds that evolve over extended periods of time. The resulting complex adaptive systems can be examined both computationally and analytically, offering new ways of experimenting with and theorizing about adaptive economic agents. Many economic systems can be classified as complex adaptive systems. Such a system is complex in a special sense: (i) It consists of a network of interacting agents (processes, elements); (ii) it exhibits a dynamic, aggregate behavior that emerges from the individual activities of the agents; and (iii) its aggregate behavior can be described without a detailed knowledge of the behavior of the individual agents. An agent in such a system is adaptive if it satisfies an additional pair of criteria: the actions of the agent in its environment can be assigned a value (performance, utility, payoff, fitness, or the like); and the agent behaves so as to increase this value over time. A complex adaptive system, then, is a complex system containing adaptive agents, networked so that the environment of each adaptive agent includes other agents in the system. Complex adaptive systems usually operate far from a global optimum or attractor. Such systems exhibit many levels of aggregation, organization, and interaction, each level having its own time scale and characteristic behavior. Any given level can usually be described in terms of local niches that can be exploited by particular adaptations. The niches are various, so it is rare that any given agent can exploit all of them, as rare as finding a universal competitor in a tropical forest. Moreover, niches are continually created by new adaptations. It is because of this ongoing evolution of the niches, and the perpetual novelty that results, that the system operates far from any global attractor. Improvements are always possible and, indeed, occur regularly. The everexpanding range of technologies and products in an economy, or the everimproving strategies in a game like chess, provide familiar examples. Adaptive systems may settle down temporarily at a local optimum, where performance is good in a comparative sense, but they are usually uninteresting if they remain at that optimum for an extended period. A theory of complex adaptive systems based on AAA makes possible the development of well-defined, yet flexible, models that exhibit emergent behavior. Such models can capture a wide range of economic phenomena precisely, even though the development of a general mathematical theory of complex adaptive systems is still in its early stages.' The AAA models complement current theoretical directions; they are

The deadline for free position ads to be included in this section of The Accounting Review is two months prior to the desired publication in the January, March, May, July, September, or November issues. Position ads, which are free with the purchase of a job posting in the AAA Career Center, should provide all relevant information about the available positions and must include contact information or application instructions for interested candidates. For more information on how to purchase a job posting in the Career Center, or for updated, detailed information about the placement listings in this issue, please go to the AAA website at http://aaahq.org and click on “Career Center,” or call our office at 941-921-7747.THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHARLOTTE, Belk College of Business, Turner School of Accountancy invites applications for a Director/Department Chair to begin in August 2022. The new Director will be hired with tenure at the rank of Professor (preferred) or Associate Professor. The primary duties of the Director include internal administration of the Turner School and external engagement with industry partners and alumni. The Turner School is named for Mr. Thomas C. Turner, who helped establish the accounting department at UNC Charlotte, and is funded with an endowment of over $4 million to support students and faculty, with additional commitments already made. Applications must be made electronically at: https://jobs.charlotte.edu/ (position #004085) or directly at: https://jobs.charlotte.edu/postings/36999/. A more detailed description of the job duties and required application materials are available at the posting. For more information, email Dr. Al Ghosh, Search Committee Chair, at: [email protected] OF CHARLESTON, Department of Accounting and Business Law is seeking a tenure-track faculty member in accounting to start Spring/Fall 2022. While all areas of teaching and research will be considered, our primary needs are in the areas of accounting information systems and data analytics. The willingness and ability to effectively teach accounting principles is required, in addition to other courses at the graduate and undergraduate levels. A Ph.D. in accounting from an AACSB-accredited (or equivalent) institution is required. Applicants should use our online application system at: https://jobs.cofc.edu/postings/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&query=&query_v0_posted_at_date=&435=&query_position_type_id%5B%5D=2&commit=Search/. All ranks will be considered. Those applying for Associate Professor or Professor appointments must have a successful record of teaching and research productivity over a period of at least five years. Questions concerning the position should be addressed to Robert Hogan, Associate Professor and Chair, at: [email protected]. Applications will be accepted until the position is filled. The College of Charleston is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity employer and does not discriminate against any individual or group on the basis of gender, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, age, race, color, religion, national origin, veteran status, genetic information, or disability.PENNYMAC is seeking applicants for the position of Investor Accountant I, who is responsible for completing low to medium complex monthly reporting and remitting for investors, which could include FNMA Actual/Actual and Private Investor Actual/Actual. The primary function may also include completing Principal & Interest (P&I), Taxes & Insurance (T&I), and/or clearing account bank reconciliations with low to medium complexity. The position also requires familiarity with understanding of the underlying governing documents (Agency and Private Investor Servicing Agreements, Regulation AB, USAP) for the assigned investor portfolio. Visit: https://careers-pennymac.icims.com/jobs/search?ss=1NEW YORK UNIVERSITY, Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service seeks to hire a full-time contract (non-tenure track) faculty member who has expertise in healthcare financial management. The principal responsibilities include teaching in two master's-degree programs: an online Master of Health Administration (M.H.A.) and an on-campus Master of Public Administration (M.P.A.) in Health Policy and Management. The faculty member will also have administrative responsibilities related to a health program. The successful candidate will join NYU Wagner's full-time faculty and should have a strong interest in interacting with faculty, students, and staff in a multi-disciplinary professional school of public service. Learn more about the position and apply here: https://apply.interfolio.com/94781UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN–GREEN BAY, Austin E. Cofrin School of Business seeks applicants for a tenure-track position in Accounting. This position will be responsible for enhancing UW–Green Bay's mission-driven inclusive teaching efforts and creating and maintaining an educational environment that acknowledges, encourages, and celebrates those with diverse identities, beliefs, and cultural backgrounds. Minimum Qualifications: Earned doctorate in Accounting or Business Administration; University-level teaching experience; Experience in working in the business world; Evidence of a commitment to quality teaching; Evidence of engagement in institutional, community and professional endeavors. To apply: https://www.careers.wisconsin.edu/psc/careers/EMPLOYEE/HRMS/c/HRS_HRAM_FL.HRS_CG_SEARCH_FL.GBL?FOCUS=Applicant/. Need: Cover letter that specifically addresses qualifications for the essential job functions, curriculum vitae, names and contact information for three references, unofficial transcripts of all graduate work, and course evaluations. For more, visit: https://www.uwgb.edu/human-resources/employment/career-opportunities/BEMIDJI STATE UNIVERSITY (BSU) invites qualified applicants to join our team as an Assistant or Associate Professor of Accounting. BSU's vision is to educate people to lead inspired lives. To accomplish BSU's vision, the University prioritizes creating a culture in which diversity is embraced and all people are safe, welcome, and validated. BSU also prioritizes increasing engagement with Indigenous communities to become a destination university. BSU is located amid the lakes and forests of northern Minnesota and occupies a wooded campus along the shore of Lake Bemidji. BSU balances rigorous academia with the opportunity to enjoy a fun, robust, outdoor culture. For more details or to apply: https://bemidjistate.peopleadmin.com/NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY, D'Amore-McKim School of Business, Accounting Group invites applications for one tenure-track position, with employment beginning in the 2022–23 academic year. We are seeking candidates who have research and teaching interests in accounting topics that involve data analytics, Big Data, text analysis, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Candidates are required to hold a doctorate in Accounting or a closely related business field by the appointment start date, and must have backgrounds in or commitment to working with diverse student populations and/or in culturally diverse work and educational environments. Applicants should submit materials including a letter of interest, vita, recent working papers, teaching evaluations, and letters of reference using the Northeastern University application portal at: https://careers.hrm.northeastern.edu/cw/en-us/job/508110. Inquiries may be directed to Professor Udi Hoitash, Chair of the Hiring Committee, Email: [email protected] STATE OF CALIFORNIA is seeking a State Auditor to provide accurate, unbiased, and timely assessments of state and local governments. With a staff of 160+ dedicated, talented professionals, the California State Auditor's Office promotes the efficient and effective management of public funds and programs by performing various audits, including audits requested by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee. For more information, please contact the Joint Legislative Audit Committee at 916-319-3300 or visit: https://legaudit.assembly.ca.gov