Knowledge that Transforms

This paper considers the econometric problems raised by multi-market disequilibrium models. It uses a specification which is derived from general disequilibrium theory and, therefore, provides a first bridge between the economic theory approach and the econometric theory approach of disequilibrium. The model is piecewise linear; the problem of the existence of a reduced form, which is a crucial issue in nonlinear models, is solved. Limited information estimators as well as full information estimators are proposed; a simple numerical algorithm is given for the computation of a FIML estimator.

[This paper analyzes an intertemporal production-investment model of the firm, which includes as a special case the adjustment cost model. Properties of the optimal value function are related to properties of the quasi-profit function. An intertemporal analogue of Hotelling's Lemma is derived, which allows derivation of optimal investment demand equations from knowledge of the optimal value function alone. A simple example illustrates the main results.]

This paper is concerned with testing for causation, using the Granger definition, in a bivariate time-series context. It is argued that a sound and natural approach to such tests must rely primarily on the out-of-sample forecasting performance of models relating the original (non-prewhitened) series of interest. A specific technique of this sort is presented and employed to investigate the relation between aggregate advertising and aggregate consumption spending. The null hypothesis that advertising does not cause consumption cannot be rejected, but some evidence suggesting that consumption may cause advertising is presented.

I. FINANCIAL THEORY. 1. Introduction to Capital Markets, Consumption and Investment. 2. Investment Decisions: The Certainty Case. 3. Theory of Choice Under Uncertainty: Utility Theory. 4. State-Preference Theory. 5. Objects of Choice. 6. Market Equilibrium: CAPM and APT. 7. Pricing Contingent Claims: Option Price Theory and Evidence. 8. Futures Contracts and Markets - Term Structure - Cox, Ingersoll, Ross. 9. Multiperiod Aspects of Financial Theory - Real Options - Investment. 10. Efficient Capital Markets: Theory. 11. Efficient Capital Market: Evidence. 12. Information Asymmetry: Agency Cost Theory and Signaling. II. CORPORATE POLICY. 13. The Role of the CFO and Performance Measurement. 14. Valuation and Tax Policy. 15. Capital Structure. 16. Dividend Policy. 17. Applied Issues in Corporate Finance. 18. External Investment Decisions. 19. International Finance: Theory and Evidence. 20. Open-Ended Issues for Research.