This research develops and tests a model for the prediction of tender offer outcomes. Variables that increase the supply of “obtainable shares” (such as increased bid premiums or the payment of solicitation fees) are shown to increase the probability of success. Increased ownership of target firm shares by the bidder also increases the probability of success. Variables that impede the tendering of shares (such as target management opposition or a competing bid) decrease the probability of success. Tests of the model utilizing both linear and logistic analysis support the theoretical constructs and help resolve the paradoxical findings of previous research.

This paper examines the conditions for which it is optimal to permanently preserve natural environments in which a productive natural resource is found. The conditions are more restrictive than those previously indicated in the literature on the economics of natural environments. Increasing consumption and declining commodity prices are not sufficient to warrant permanent preservation. The initial capital stock can be an important determinant of the optimal level of preservation. In addition, resource amenity values will increase the initial resource price and decrease the rate of growth of the resource price.

This paper considers the problem of finding the “best” estimator among a class that includes most of the commonly used limited information estimators in simultaneous equation systems. Concentration comparisons, based on the Edgeworth expansion of the distribution of these estimators, lead to selection rules of sufficient simplicity to be useful in applied econometric research.

G. William Glezen, James A. Millar, An Empirical Investigation of Stockholder Reaction to Disclosures Required by ASR No. 250, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 23, No. 2 (Autumn, 1985), pp. 859-870

Research Methodology, Multicollinearity

In this paper we develop and estimate the first complete and internally consistent model of the effect of Social Security on the labor supply of the aged. We develop a simple life-cycle model that captures the effect of Social Security on the joint choice of the date of retirement and hours of work immediately after retirement. We show that in the presence of Social Security the budget constraint relating these choices is highly complex and nonlinear, and we develop a maximum likelihood procedure for the model that yields consistent parameter estimates. Our procedure avoids the selectivity biases present in prior studies that have ignored the nonlinearity of the constraint or have examined only self-selected subsamples that exclude nonretirees. Our results show that Social Security has a significant, though relatively small, effect on the age of retirement and postretirement hours of work, and that the effect of Social Security grows with advancing age.