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Option Pricing and the Martingale Restriction

Review of Financial Studies 1995 8(4), 1091-1124
In the absence of frictions, the value of the underlying asset implied by option prices must equal its actual market value. With frictions, however, this requirement need not hold. Using S&P 100 index options data, I find that the implied cost of the index is significantly higher in the options market than in the stock market, and is directly related to measures of transaction costs and liquidity. I show that the Black-Scholes model has strong bid-ask spread, trading volume, and open interest biases. Option pricing models that relax the martingale restriction perform significantly better.

The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1995 110(3), 641-680 open access
This paper documents the fundamental role played by factor accumulation in explaining the extraordinary postwar growth of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Participation rates, educational levels, and (excepting Hong Kong) investment rates have risen rapidly in all four economies. In addition, in most cases there has been a large intersectoral transfer of labor into manufacturing, which has helped fuel growth in that sector. Once one accounts for the dramatic rise in factor inputs, one arrives at estimated total factor productivity growth rates that are closely approximated by the historical performance of many of the OECD and Latin American economies. While the growth of output and manufacturing exports in the newly industrializing countries of East Asia is virtually unprecedented, the growth of total factor productivity in these economies is not.

Earnings, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1995 11(2), 661-687
Abstract. The paper develops and analyzes a model of a firm's market value as it relates to contemporaneous and future earnings, book values, and dividends. Two owners' equity accounting constructs provide the underpinnings of the model: the clean surplus relation applies, and dividends reduce current book value but do not affect current earnings. The model satisfies many appealing properties, and it provides a useful benchmark when one conceptualizes how market value relates to accounting data and other information. Résumé. L'auteur élabore et analyse un modèle dans lequel il conceptualise la relation entre la valeur marchande d'une entreprise et ses bénéfices, ses valeurs comptables et ses dividendes actuels et futurs. Deux postulats de la comptabilisation des capitaux propres servent de charpente au modèle: a) la relation du résultat global s'applique et b) les dividendes réduisent la valeur comptable actuelle sans influer, cependant, sur les bénéfices actuels. Le modèle présente de nombreuses propriétés intéressantes et il peut, fort utilement, servir de repère dans la conceptualisation de la relation entre la valeur marchande et les données comptables et autres renseignements.

Bargaining Power, Strike Durations, and Wage Outcomes: An Analysis of Strikes in the 1880s

Journal of Labor Economics 1995 13(1), 32-61
Strike outcomes in the 1880s had a "winner-take-all" character. Successful strikes ended with a discrete wage gain; failed strikes ended with a return to work at the prestrike wage. We present a theoretical interpretation of these outcomes based on a war-of-attrition model. We fit an empirical model specifying the capitulation times of the two parties and the size of the wage gain in the event of a strike success. The results show a systematic relation between the determinants of strike success and the determinants of the wage gain for a successful strike.

Taxation, regulation, and the organizational structure of property-casualty insurers

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1995 20(3), 229-253
This study investigates the effects of state taxes and regulation on an organizational structure decision for expanding property-casualty insurers (subsidiary versus license). Tests are conducted of the relation between the organizational structure of 2,335 property-casualty insurers and state tax and regulatory conditions in 1991. Evidence is provided that property-casualty insurers structure their cross-state expansion to mitigate both state tax and regulatory costs.

Immigration Reform: The Effects of Employer Sanctions and Legalization on Wages

Journal of Labor Economics 1995 13(3), 472-498
The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) represents an attempt to use labor market regulation to control illegal migration into the United States by imposing fines on employers who hire unauthorized workers. Sanctions lower wages directly because they act as a tax on hiring additional workers. In addition, IRCA legalized many longtime illegal aliens. Legalization affects wages by changing the relative supply of authorized and unauthorized workers. This study estimates IRCA's impact on wages of manufacturing production workers in metropolitan areas and finds small but statistically significant effects: sanctions lower wages, while legalization raises them.

Renegotiation of Sales Contracts

Econometrica 1995 63(3), 567
This paper studies moral hazard contracts that may be renegotiated after an agent chooses an unobservable effort. Unlike in previous models, a contract here contains only one compensation scheme, and the agent has all the bargaining power in the renegotiation stage. Using a relatively weak forward-induction refinement, all equilibria are shown tb be (second-best) efficient. Renegotiation occurs in every equilibrium. If the effort set is rich, the only equilibrium initial contract is a sales contract, i.e., a scheme which sells the project to the agent. This captures the idea that a party (the principal) who has an inherently weak renegotiation position will sometimes insist on a simple initial contract.