This article examines the determinants of changes in the U.S. wage structure from 1976 to 2000. Our main empirical observation is that changes in both the level of wages and the returns to skill over this period were primarily driven by changes in the ratio of human capital to physical capital. We show that this pattern conforms extremely well to a simple model of technological adoption following a major change in technological opportunities. In contrast, we do not find much empirical support for the view that ongoing (factor‐augmenting) skill‐biased technological progress has been an important driving force over this period.

This paper simulates the impact of the AIDS epidemic on future living standards in South Africa. I emphasize two competing effects. On the one hand, the epidemic is likely to have a detrimental impact on the human capital accumulation of orphaned children. On the other hand, widespread community infection lowers fertility, both directly, through a reduction in the willingness to engage in unprotected sexual activity, and indirectly, by increasing the scarcity of labor and the value of a woman's time. I find that even with the most pessimistic assumptions concerning reductions in educational attainment, the fertility effect dominates. The AIDS epidemic, on net, enhances the future per capita consumption possibilities of the South African economy.

Logit and probit models of turnover=f(performance, firm type, firm type*performance, controls) are often used when testing whether turnover is “more sensitive to performance” for different types of firms. Researchers using this specification typically focus on the significance of the interaction term coefficient. If the intent is to show that the likelihood (rather than the odds) of turnover changes by more for one type of firm as performance varies, then this is an inappropriate test. Simulations are used to demonstrate how focusing on this particular coefficient can generate incorrect inferences. I then show how analyzing marginal effects eliminates this inference problem.

The present article introduces Development, a new, unpublished and hitherto unknown article by Joseph A. Schumpeter from 1932. Development is remarkable because it significantly adds to Schumpeter's known works on a number of issues that were central to his theory of economic development. Development shows that Schumpeter considered the explanation of novelty as the most important unsolved scientific problem. Schumpeter doubts the explanatory value of entrepreneurship and indicates that theoretical advances might be forthcoming that can help a better understanding of the social dynamics which gives rise to novelty.

Corruption by the politically connected is often blamed for economic ills, particularly in less developed economies. Using a loan-level data set of more than 90,000 firms that represents the universe of corporate lending in Pakistan between 1996 and 2002, we investigate rents to politically connected firms in banking. Classifying a firm as “political” if its director participates in an election, we examine the extent, nature, and economic costs of political rent provision. We find that political firms borrow 45 percent more and have 50 percent higher default rates. Such preferential treatment occurs exclusively in government banks—private banks provide no political favors. Using firm fixed effects and exploiting variation for the same firm across lenders or over time allows for cleaner identification of the political preference result. We also find that political rents increase with the strength of the firm's politician and whether he or his party is in power, and fall with the degree of electoral participation in his constituency. We provide direct evidence against alternative explanations such as socially motivated lending by government banks to politicians. The economy-wide costs of the rents identified are estimated to be 0.3 to 1.9 percent of GDP every year.

This paper investigates empirically how the value of publicly traded firms is affected by arrangements that protect management from removal. Staggered boards, which a majority of U.S. public companies have, substantially insulate boards from removal in either a hostile takeover or a proxy contest. We find that staggered boards are associated with an economically meaningful reduction in firm value (as measured by Tobin's Q). We also provide suggestive evidence that staggered boards bring about, and not merely reflect, a reduced firm value. Finally, we show that the correlation with reduced firm value is stronger for staggered boards that are established in the corporate charter (which shareholders cannot amend) than for staggered boards established in the company's bylaws (which shareholders can amend).

This paper addresses the link between trade exposure and wage volatility. First, it shows, in a simple model, that trade exposure magnifies the impact of domestic productivity shocks on industry-specific labor demand, particularly for the less export-intensive industries, and that, if labor is not perfectly mobile, this implies a rise in wage volatility. Then, it tests these predictions, using industry data. The empirical results confirm that wage volatility increases with an industry's degree of openness, and that it declines with an increase in the industry's export intensity.

The U.S. book-building method has become increasingly popular for initial public offerings (IPOs) worldwide over the last decade, whereas sealed-bid IPO auctions have been abandoned in nearly all of the many countries in which they have been tried. I model book building, discriminatory auctions, and uniform price auctions in an environment in which the number of investors and the accuracy of investors’ information are endogenous. Book building lets underwriters manage investor access to shares, allowing them to reduce risk for both issuers and investors and to control spending on information acquisition, thereby limiting either underpricing or aftermarket volatility. Because more control and less risk are beneficial to all issuers, the advantages of book building's allocational flexibility could explain why global patterns of issuer choice are surprisingly consistent. My models also predict that offerings with higher expected underpricing have lower expected aftermarket volatility; that an auction open to large numbers of potential bidders is vulnerable to inaccurate pricing and to fluctuations in the number of bidders; and that both book-built and auctioned IPOs will exhibit partial adjustment to both private and public information.

This paper analyzes the impact of signal-to-noise-ratios and the autocorrelation of a performance measure on the principal's welfare in dynamic agencies with renegotiation. We consider the impact of changes in the persistent, transitory, and reversible components of accounting earnings on its usefulness in valuation versus contracting. Increasing the persistent components and reducing the reversible components are generally desirable for valuation, but not for contracting. Eliminating transitory components of earnings is generally desirable for valuation, but not necessarily for contracting. We discuss the contracting implications of differences in the autocorrelations of accounting earnings versus stock returns.