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The Cross Section of MBS Returns

Journal of Finance 2021 76(5), 2093-2151
We present a simple, linear asset pricing model of the cross section of Mortgage‐Backed Security (MBS) returns. MBS earn risk premia as compensation for their exposure to prepayment risk. We measure prepayment risk and estimate risk loadings using prepayment forecasts versus realizations. Estimated loadings on prepayment risk decrease monotonically in securities' coupons relative to the par coupon, consistent with the predicted effect of prepayment on bond value. Prepayment risk appears to be priced by specialized MBS investors. The price of prepayment risk changes sign over time with the sign of a representative MBS investor's exposure to prepayment shocks.

Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets

Econometrica 2015 83(6), 2231-2292
We develop a parsimonious model to study the equilibrium and socially optimal decisions of banks to enter, trade in, and possibly exit, an OTC market. Although we endow all banks with the same trading technology, banks' optimal entry and trading decisions endogenously lead to a realistic market structure composed of dealers and customers with distinct trading patterns. We decompose banks' entry incentives into incentives to hedge risk and incentives to make intermediation profits. We show that dealer banks enter more than is socially optimal. In the face of large negative shocks, they may also exit more than is socially optimal when markets are not perfectly resilient.

Generative AI and Firm Values

Journal of Finance 2026 open access
How do recent advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) affect firm value? We construct the first measure of firms' workforce exposures to Generative AI and show that an “Artificial‐Minus‐Human” portfolio earned 5% in the two weeks following the release of ChatGPT. The labor‐exposure effect is more pronounced for firms with greater data assets and is distinct from the effect of firms' product exposures to AI. We assess whether exposed workforces are substituted or complemented by Generative AI based on whether their exposed tasks are core or supplemental. Examining firms' labor demand and profitability following the release of ChatGPT supports a labor‐technology substitution channel.