Most discussions of the Greek debt overhang have focussed on the implications for Greece. We show that when additional funds released to the debtor (Greece), via debt restructuring, are used efficiently in pursuit of a practicable business plan, then both debtor and creditor can benefit. We examine a dynamic two country model calibrated to Greek and German economies and support two-steady states, one with endogenous default and one without, depending on creditors’ expectations. In the default steady state, debt forgiveness lowers the volatility of both German and Greek consumption whereas demanding higher recovery rates has the opposite effect. In a second order approximation of the model, conditional welfare analysis shows that a policy of immediate leniency followed by harsher terms as the economy grows is beneficial to both creditors and debtors.

We investigate how seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by issuers with large customers affect both trading partners’ market values and the relationship's health. We hypothesize that SEOs reveal adverse information about an issuer's major customers and find that issuers and their large customers experience negative returns on SEO announcements. These results are more pronounced when customers have higher levels of information asymmetry and when customer-supplier relationships are particularly important. Large customers of issuers experience larger declines in post-SEO sales, operating performance, and credit ratings than large customers of non-issuers. Also, SEO issuer sales to large customers and relationship duration significantly decline.

This paper investigates banks’ incentive to bias the risk estimates they report to regulators. Within loan syndicates, we find that banks with less capital report lower risk estimates. Consistent with an effort to mitigate capital requirements, the sensitivity to capital is robust to bank fixed effects and greater for large, risky, and opaque credits. Also, low-capital banks’ risk estimates have less explanatory power than those of high-capital banks with regard to loan prices, indicating that their estimates incorporate less information. Our results suggest banks underreport risk in response to capital constraints and highlight the perils of regulation premised on self-reporting. Received September 21, 2016; editorial decision September 18, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web Site next to the link to the final published paper online.

ABSTRACT We show that the cost of trading on negative news, relative to positive news, increases before earnings announcements. Our evidence suggests that this asymmetry is due to financial intermediaries reducing their exposure to announcement risks by providing liquidity asymmetrically. This asymmetry creates a predictable upward bias in prices that increases preannouncement, and subsequently reverses, confounding short‐window announcement returns as measures of earnings news and risk premia. These findings provide an alternative explanation for asymmetric return reactions to firms' earnings news, and help explain puzzling prior evidence that announcement risk premia precede the actual announcements. Our study informs methods for research centering on earnings announcements and offers a possible explanation for patterns in returns around anticipated periods of heightened inventory risks, including alternative firm‐level, industry‐level, and macroeconomic information events.

Abstract We examine how managers assess performance and promotion prospects—that is, the ex ante likelihood of promotion—and the conditions under which these assessments diverge. We argue that managers apply different cognitive schemas when they make different assessments. To the extent that a signal provides different information about future versus current contributions, assessed performance and promotion prospects are likely to diverge. In two experiments, we manipulate professionals' promotion eligibility and level of consultative decision making. We find that experienced managers assess performance and promotion prospects differently, but only when professionals are promotion eligible. Specifically, more (as opposed to less) consultative decision making decreases promotion prospects while not affecting assessed performance (Experiment 1) or even improving it (Experiment 2). By contrast, more consultative decision making improves both assessments when professionals are not eligible for promotion. We shed light on the relations between subjective assessments, including that promotion is not necessarily the consequence of superior assessed performance.

ABSTRACT The literature on the usefulness of analysts’ cash flow forecasts is unsettled, with Call et al. ( ), Mohanram ( ), and Radhakrishnan and Wu ( ) providing evidence in favor of their usefulness, and Givoly et al. ( ), Bilinski ( ), and Ecker and Schipper ( ) questioning this. Target prices provide a good setting to test the usefulness of cash flow forecasts because they are an ultimate output of an analyst's valuation process to which cash flow forecasts are an input. Moreover, studying the effect of cash flow forecasts on target prices is more relevant for assessing their usefulness than is studying their effect on earnings‐forecast accuracy, as the accuracy of target prices requires a comparison with market prices, which are less subject to management influence than reported earnings. By improving an analyst's understanding of unexpected accruals and permanent earnings, a cash flow forecast can increase an analyst's target price accuracy and signal an analyst's superior forecasting ability. We examine whether, conditional on their earnings forecasts, analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve their target price accuracy. We find that when analysts issue cash flow forecasts, their target price accuracy increases. We also find that this accuracy increases with the accuracy of their cash flow forecasts. Finally, we find that this increased target price accuracy is greater for more challenging‐to‐value firms. Our study provides confirmatory evidence of the usefulness of analysts’ cash flow forecasts.

Abstract Auditors must frequently multitask in order to complete their work efficiently. However, the potential impact of multitasking on auditors’ judgment quality is poorly understood. Using Ego Depletion Theory and a laboratory experiment, we predict and find that auditors become less able to identify seeded errors after multitasking, and that this effect is most prominent in the identification of conceptual, rather than mechanical, errors. These negative consequences of multitasking are mitigated when auditors are exposed to an intervention based on a theoretical countermeasure of replenishing depleted self‐control resources, in that multitasking auditors identify more seeded errors with the intervention than without. Given that multitasking is a pervasive feature of the current audit environment, these findings have direct implications for audit practice. Beyond identifying multitasking as a cause of impaired performance in auditing, this study's results provide initial evidence that such negative effects can be mitigated, resulting in improved audit quality and, by extension, improved financial statement quality.

Previous studies have linked personal characteristics of business leaders to corporate decisions and outcomes. We analyze if the traumatic experience of the Chinese Famine has an impact on managerial decisions. By exploiting the exogenous variation in local severity of the famine, we find that having lived through the famine during one's younger years is associated with more conservative financial, investment, and cash holding policies, a lower likelihood of unethical behavior, and better firm performance during economic downturns.