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A Competitive Model of Commodity Differentiation

Econometrica 1984 52(2), 507
[This paper develops a general, competitive model of commodity differentiation. The structure analyzed is sufficiently rich to admit the basic structures of many of the common models of commodity differentiation as special cases. Thus, the model provides a unifying framework within which alternative formulations of strategic product choice can be compared. It is shown that competitive equilibria exist under only mild restrictions on the underlying economic structure and vary continuously with endowments. Finally, some results relevant to all models of commodity differentiation featuring price taking consumers are presented. The results are shown to point to some potentially important methodological restrictions.]

Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1984 66(3), 386
A bstract-This paper uses state space methods to examine the extent to which forecast errors in inventory investment, especially at turning points, may be due to measurement error. It is found that while quarterly observations on both inventory and sales are subject to substantial revision, these revisions have on average only a modest impact on the accuracy of inventory investment forecasts. However, there is evidence that the variance of inventory measurement error increases with the rate of change of inventory stocks. This implies that substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, especially at turning points, are potentially available if the preliminary and revised data are used optimally.

Option arbitrage and strategy with large price changes

Journal of Financial Economics 1984 13(1), 91-113
Arbitrage pricing theorems are derived for options on stocks with jumps as a well as local movements. The resulting valuation formulas depend on observable variables only. Closed-form valuation expressions are obtained in the case of large positive and negative jumps. These results translate into a simple algebra for characterizing the risk of arbitrage and investment portfolios. A continuous-time formulation of the infinite variance hypothesis leads to isomorphic pricing expressions.