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Optimum Product Diversity and the Incentives for Entry in Natural Oligopolies

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1987 102(3), 595
This paper concerns the classification of biases in the set of produced varieties in a monopolistically competitive equilibrium in the natural oligopoly setting. That is, we analyze the relationship between the set of produced goods in equilibrium when fixed costs are small and the set of produced goods by a social planner when fixed costs equal zero. It is shown that if all of the goods are substitutes, there are never too few varieties, and there may be too many. Conversely, if the goods are all complementary, there are never too many, and there may be too few.

The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk

Econometrica 1987 55(1), 95
This paper investigates the consequences of the following modification of Expected Utility theory: instead of requiring independence with respect to probability mixtures of risky prospects, require independence with respect to direct mixing of payments o f risky prospects. A new theory of choice under risk- a so-called Dual theory-is obtained. Within this new theory, the following questions are considered: (1) numerical representation of preferences; (2) properties of the utility function; ( 3) the possibility for resolving the "paradoxes" of Expected Utilit y theory; ( 4) the characterization of risk aversion; and (5) comparative statics. The paper ends with a discussion of other non-Expected Utility theories proposed recently. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

Testing for market timing ability

Journal of Financial Economics 1987 19(1), 169-189
In this paper we examine the Henriksson-Merton test of market timing and its potential usefulness in evaluating investment advice. The paper proposes a natural extension of the test that is valid under more general assumptions about the distribution of asset returns. We show that the Henriksson-Merton test and its more general counterpart are special cases of standard tests of market rationality and efficiency. Both tests are applied to a group of foreign exchange advisory services.

Voluntary corporate liquidations

Journal of Financial Economics 1987 19(2), 311-328 open access
This paper examines possible motives for and consequences of voluntary corporate liquidations. Specifically, the procedural and tax differences between voluntary liquidations and other control-changing transaction devices are analyzed. An empirical investigation of successful liquidations shows that the announcement of liquidation reduces the risk of liquidating shares, that the shareholders receive substantial gains from successful liquidations, and that the average gains to the acquiring shareholders are not significantly different from zero. These findings suggest that the liquidating firms' assets have been underutilized before liquidation and that voluntary liquidations lead to higher-valued reallocations of corporate resources.

Transfer Sensitive Inequality Measures

Review of Economic Studies 1987 54(3), 485
Transfer sensitivity has been seen as a means of strengthening the Pigou-Dalton “principle of transfers”, by ensuring that more weight in the inequality assessment is attached to transfers taking place lower down in the distribution. This paper examines the concept of transfer sensitivity in detail and proposes a new definition that can be usefully applied in general contexts. The definition is based on the notion of “favourable composite transfers” which involve a regressive transfer combined with a simultaneous progressive transfer at a lower income level. The paper proceeds to identify when one distribution can be obtained from another using a sequence of progressive transfers and favourable composite transfers, and hence when all transfer sensitive Pigou-Dalton indices agree on their pairwise inequality ranking. Since agreement occurs in some situations when Pigou-Dalton indices are not unanimous, transfer sensitivity adds power to the “unambiguous” inequality judgements based on the Pigou-Dalton condition and, in particular, enables distributions whose Lorenz curves intersect to be conclusively ranked.

Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1987 9(1), 61-87
This paper provides evidence of security analyst (SA) superiority relative to univariate time-series (TS) models in predicting firms' quarterly earnings numbers and shows that SA forecast superiority in our sample is attributable to: (1) better utilization of information existing on the date that TS model forecasts can be initiated, a contemporaneous advantage; and (2) use of information acquired between the date of initiation of TS model forecasts and the date when SA forecasts are published, a timing advantage.