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Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 40, 346-363
We explore whether there are common factors in the cross-section of individual commodity futures returns. We test various asset pricing models which have been employed for the equities market as well as models motivated by commodity pricing theories. The use of these families of models allows us also to test whether the commodities and equities market are integrated. In addition, we employ principal components factor models which do not require à priori specification of factors. We find that none of the models is successful. Our results imply that commodity markets are segmented from the equities market and they are considerably heterogeneous per se.

Volatility spillovers and the effect of news announcements

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(8), 2260-2273
We examine the effect of US and European news announcements on the spillover of volatility across US and European stock markets. Using synchronously observed international implied volatility indices at a daily frequency, we find significant spillovers of implied volatility between US and European markets as well as within European markets. We observe a stark contrast in the effect of scheduled versus unscheduled news releases. Scheduled (unscheduled) news releases resolve (create) information uncertainty, leading to a decrease (increase) in implied volatility. Nevertheless, news announcements do not fully explain the volatility spillovers, although they do affect the magnitude of volatility spillovers. Our results are robust to extreme market events such as the recent financial crisis and provide evidence of volatility contagion across markets.

Positive stock information in out-of-the-money option prices

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 128, 106112 open access
We examine whether the option market leads the stock market with respect to positive in addition to negative price discovery. We document that out-of-the-money (OTM) option prices, which determine the Risk-Neutral Skewness (RNS) of the underlying stock return’s distribution, can embed positive information regarding the underlying stock. A long-only portfolio of stocks with the highest RNS values yields a significant positive alpha in the post-ranking week during the period 1996–2014. This outperformance is mainly driven by stocks that are relatively underpriced but are also exposed to greater downside risk. These findings are consistent with a trading mechanism where investors choose to exploit perceived stock underpricing via OTM options due to their embedded leverage, rather than directly buying the underlying stock to avoid exposure to its potential downside. Due to the absence of severe limits-to-arbitrage for the long-side, the price correction signalled by RNS is very quick, typically overnight.

Material ESG Alpha: A Fundamentals-Based Perspective

The Accounting Review 2024 99(4), 1-27 open access
Using SASB’s materiality framework, prior research finds alpha for the portfolio of firms with improving ratings on material ESG issues. We replicate this finding and provide a fundamentals-based perspective on why the materiality portfolio outperforms. Our basic premise is that changes in material ESG issues reflect fundamental firm characteristics. More financially established firms—firms with larger size, lower growth, and higher profitability relative to their sector—are more likely to not only create material strengths but also resolve material weaknesses in their ESG scoring. This fundamental link dictates that one should comprehensively control for fundamental determinants of stock returns before attributing portfolio outperformance to improving material ESG scores. Indeed, we find that the materiality portfolio does not generate alpha after we account for its exposure to profitability and growth factors. Our evidence underscores the issue of correlated omitted fundamental factors in the debate of ESG alpha. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources cited in the text.