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Asset Prices, Commodity Prices, and Money: A General Equilibrium, Rational Expectations Model

American Economic Review 1988
An expected-utility-maximizing investor spends his portfolio income on commodities and real balances. Commodity prices and asset payoffs are determined endogenously in general equilibrium. The impact of commodity prices on investor welfare yields surprising relationships among the expected returns required on financial assets. Real (monetary) disturbances can generate a neg ative (positive) correlation between inflation and equity payoffs, but the expected nominal return on the equity can still be less (greater) than the nominal interest rate. The expected nominal return on an indexed bond can be greater than on a nominal bond. The expected real return on an equity can be lower than on an indexed bond.

Investment, Uncertainty, and Liquidity

Journal of Finance 2003 58(5), 2143-2166
We analyze the dynamic investment decision of a firm subject to an endogenous financing constraint. The threat of future funding shortfalls lowers the value of the firm's timing options and encourages acceleration of investment beyond the first‐best optimal level. As well as highlighting another way by which capital market frictions can distort investment behavior, this result implies that (1) the sensitivity of investment to cash flow can be greatest for high‐liquidity firms and (2) greater uncertainty has an ambiguous effect on investment.

The impact of deposit insurance on depositor behavior during a crisis: A conjoint analysis approach

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2015 24(4), 590-601
We investigate the effectiveness of initiating deposit insurance at the outset of a banking crisis. Using a conjoint analysis approach that allows us to consider the simultaneous impact of multiple deposit insurance attributes and various counterfactuals, we ask a multinational sample of respondents how they would view hypothetical account profiles following the failure of a large competing bank. Previous experience matters: respondents from countries without explicit deposit insurance exhibit greater withdrawal risk, suggesting that the introduction of deposit insurance during a crisis may be only partially successful in preventing bank runs. They also impose a higher deposit interest rate premium. Having a long-term bank relationship reduces withdrawal risk, as does the absence of co-insurance.

Deposit insurance and the risk premium in bank deposit rates

Journal of Banking & Finance 2003 27(4), 699-717
By placing a ceiling on the amount of possible depositor loss, deposit insurance should result in a lower deposit risk premium. However, this effect may be modified if either the insurance promise has low credibility or the moral hazard incentives generated by deposit insurance result in a greater probability of bank default. Using financial and institutional panel data from thirteen countries, we find that the risk premium is over 40 basis points higher on average in uninsured countries than in countries that offer insurance up to some pre-specified maximum. However, the risk premium has a non-linear relationship with the level of maximum insurance coverage, suggesting that the market recognizes the moral hazard potential. Moreover, the effect of deposit insurance on the risk premium is weaker in countries with strong creditor rights, consistent with the view that investors view the latter as a substitute for explicit deposit insurance.