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The Translog Production Function and Variable Returns to Scale

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1992 74(3), 546
This paper examines existing methods of estimating the translog production function and provides a general framework that allows for variable returns to scale. The model is based on the inverse input demand function and embeds a nonhomothetic production technology. Previous estimation methods are valid only for homogeneous technologies with fixed scale effects. Estimation results for U.S. manufacturing show that neither homotheticity and homogeneity nor constant returns to scale is a proper characterization of the underlying structure of production, thereby vindicating the empirical relevance of the inverse demand framework that entails a nonhomothetic technology. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.

Evidence of Risk Premiums in Foreign Currency Futures Markets

Review of Financial Studies 1992 5(1), 65-83
[Weekly data for foreign currency futures prices are examined for evidence of risk premiums. Covariance risks are measured with respect to the excess returns from benchmark portfolios for consumption and wealth. When the parameters representing the prices of the covariance risks are held constant, no risk premiums are detected. However, when these prices are allowed to vary with the conditional expected returns and variances of the benchmark portfolios, possibly reflecting changing investment opportunities, strong evidence of risk premiums is obtained.]

Information and Diversity of Analyst Opinion

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1992 27(2), 169
This paper examines problems in the use of divergence of analyst opinion as a proxy for estimation risk in empirical studies of security returns and asset pricing models. We demonstrate that diversity of opinion can increase even though the amount of private information increases, and we show that diversity of opinion may overstate estimation risk if the capital market aggregates the information held by investors. We produce empirical results consistent with our conclusions. Specifically, we find that divergence of opinion can produce measures of estimation risk that are inconsistent with a received proxy for estimation risk and with observed common stock returns.

Judging Factor Abundance

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1992 107(2), 599-620
Recent theory casts doubt on the frequently used interindustry regression method of inferring a country's abundant factors. This paper examines the empirical importance of these theoretical qualifications by comparing regression-derived estimates of factor abundance with both revealed and actual factor abundances for 35 countries and 12 resources. We demonstrate the theoretical importance of trade imbalances for the reliability of the regression estimates and therefore propose and implement a theoretically consistent trade imbalance correction. The results indicate that, despite valid theoretical concerns, the regression estimates are generally reliable indicators of revealed factor abundance. Therefore, the innumerable regression studies conducted over the past 30 years can be considered to provide reliable evidence concerning the validity of the factor abundance theory.

Empirical Tests of a Principal-Agent Model of the Investor-Investment Advisor Relationship

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1992 27(1), 81
This paper develops a specialized principal-agent model of the investor-investment advisor relationship and embeds the standard advisory compensation schedule in the model. Advisors are endowed with information-gathering abilities and investors are endowed with funds. Information-gathering services are traded indirectly through the investor's receipt of portfolio returns net of advisory fees. Model results show that the parameters of the compensation schedule are both a function of the idiosyncracies of an advisor's information services and the degree of risk sharing between the advisor and investor. Several predictions of the model are supported using data on mutual fund advisors. Unsupported predictions may be due to self-selection of advisors by risk tolerance.

Explaining the Variance of Price–Dividend Ratios

Review of Financial Studies 1992 5(2), 243-280
The author reports a bound on the variance of price-dividend ratios and a decomposition of their variance into terms that reflect changes in dividend growth and discount rates. The specification is not restrictive. The test statistics do not require construction of ex post present values; instead, they are restrictions on means, variances, and covariances of price-dividend ratios, dividend growth, and discount rates. He considers implications for the mean price-dividend ratio, and he evaluates whether a low mean discount rate can rationalize the mean and variance of price-dividend ratios. The results do not indicate any striking rejections of present-value models. However, the bulk of the variance of price-dividend ratios must be accounted for by changing forecasts of discount rates, and discount rates must possess some unusual characteristics. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand

American Economic Review 1992 82(1), 15-33
This paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income. Time-series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks. The relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income.