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Why Do Dealers Buy High and Sell Low? An Analysis of Persistent Crossing in Extremely Segmented Markets

Review of Finance 2017 21(2), 719-760
We find that small buy trades of US agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are priced 3–8% lower than large sell trades. No such “crossing” exists in corporate bonds and agency debentures. We attribute the MBS price patterns to impediments to position aggregation in combination with investor suitability rules that disproportionately affect retail-sized trading and show in a model that classic market frictions cannot produce crossing. Our findings imply that valuations placed on securities affected by aggregation and suitability frictions should adjust for position size. Such securities include not only agency MBS, but also asset-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations, collateralized loan obligations, and private-label residential mortgage-backed securities.

Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(8), 2555-2595
The unique regulation of U.S. public pension funds links their liability discount rate to the expected return on assets, which gives them incentives to invest more in risky assets in order to report a better funding status. Comparing public and private pension funds in the United States, Canada, and Europe, we find that U.S. public pension funds act on their regulatory incentives. U.S. public pension funds with a higher level of underfunding per participant, as well as funds with more politicians and elected plan participants serving on the board, take more risk and use higher discount rates. The increased risk-taking by U.S. public funds is negatively related to their performance.

The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2017 132(4), 1593-1640 open access
The labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2012, jobs requiring high levels of social interaction grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the U.S. labor force. Math-intensive but less social jobs—including many STEM occupations—shrank by 3.3 percentage points over the same period. Employment and wage growth were particularly strong for jobs requiring high levels of both math skill and social skills. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team production where workers “trade tasks” to exploit their comparative advantage. In the model, social skills reduce coordination costs, allowing workers to specialize and work together more efficiently. The model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations, which I investigate using data from the NLSY79 and the NLSY97. Using a comparable set of skill measures and covariates across survey waves, I find that the labor market return to social skills was much greater in the 2000s than in the mid-1980s and 1990s.

Credit Ratings Across Asset Classes: A Long-Term Perspective

Review of Finance 2017 21(2), 465-509 open access
We test whether ratings are comparable across asset classes. We examine default rates by initial rating, accuracy ratios, migration metrics, instantaneous upgrade and downgrade intensities, and rating changes over bonds’ lives in multivariate regressions. These approaches reveal substantial and persistent differences across broad asset classes, as well as across subcategories of structured finance products. Our results are best explained by variation in rating agency incentives and variation in underlying risk profiles. We conclude that regulations requiring ratings to perform comparably across asset classes will prove difficult to enforce. We advocate instead a regulatory framework that better distinguishes risks and incentives across asset classes.

Capital and resolution policies: The US interbank market

Journal of Financial Stability 2017 30, 229-239 open access
We develop an empirically based simulation study to test two types of policies designed to control systemic risk: preventive policies targeting capital requirements and mitigation policies targeting default resolution. We find that capital buffers reduce both the number of defaults and the resulting losses. The loss reduction benefit increases as the magnitude of adverse shocks becomes higher. We find that a simple branch-breakup resolution strategy reduces the loss borne by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The mitigation effect becomes higher as the fraction of assets resolved through auctions and auction competitiveness increase.

Do banks and industrial companies have equal access to reputable underwriters in debt markets?

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 45, 176-202 open access
We analyze whether banks and industrial companies have equal access to debt markets through reputable underwriters and explore the determinants of that matching for both types of firms. Using a sample of European corporate bonds during the years 2003–2013, we find that the odds of matching with a reputable underwriter were about 1.5 times greater for non-financial companies than for banks. The odds of matching with a reputable underwriter were 10.92 times lower for a bank during the crisis. As for the determinants of the matching probability, the marginal effect of the bond size on the matching probability is 1.70 larger for non-financial firms than for banks. Furthermore, the effect of bond size is greater for large non-financial companies than for large banks while the effect of maturity is larger for banks than for non-financial companies.