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Inflation and the Holding Period Returns on Bonds

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1979 14(5), 959
The relationship between the rate of inflation and the interest rate has been a topic of research for quite some time. A breakthrough in the analysis occurred years ago with Irving Fisher's hypothesis that the nominal interest rate fully reflects the available information concerning the possible future values of the rate of inflation. Others have extended Fisher's original insight to explain further the interaction between the rate of interest and inflation. For example, Mundell [26] uses the Pigou real-balance effect to hypothesize that the real rate of interest is inversely related to the rate of inflation.

The Week‐End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence

Journal of Finance 1985 40(2), 433-454
ABSTRACT This paper examines the daily stock market returns for four foreign countries. We find a so‐called “week‐end effect” in each country. In addition, the lowest mean returns for the Japanese and Australian stock markets occur on Tuesday. The remainder of the paper answers four questions. Are seasonal patterns in foreign stock markets independent of those previously reported in the U.S.? Do Japan and Australia exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase due to different time zones? Do settlement procedures across countries bias week‐end effects? Does the seasonal pattern in foreign exchange offset the week‐end effect in stocks for Americans investing overseas?

The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence

Journal of Finance 1985 40(2), 433
This paper examines the daily stock market returns for four foreign countries. We find a so-called “week-end effect” in each country. In addition, the lowest mean returns for the Japanese and Australian stock markets occur on Tuesday. The remainder of the paper answers four questions. Are seasonal patterns in foreign stock markets independent of those previously reported in the U.S.? Do Japan and Australia exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase due to different time zones? Do settlement procedures across countries bias week-end effects? Does the seasonal pattern in foreign exchange offset the week-end effect in stocks for Americans investing overseas?

The Value of Risk-Reducing Information

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1974 9(5), 697
It has been suggested that information has the three following uses:1. Information can be employed to earn trading profits.2. Information can improve the operating decisions of a firm or group of firms and thereby increase the stock price.3. Information can reduce the risk of a firm or group of firms and thereby increase the stock price.

The performance of investment newsletters

Journal of Financial Economics 1999 53(2), 289-307 open access
This paper analyzes the recommendations of common stocks made by the investment newsletters followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest. We conclude that, taken as a whole, the securities that newsletters recommend do not outperform appropriate benchmarks. Our data provide modest evidence that the future performance of a newsletter is related to its past performance, when performance is measure by raw returns. Evidence of persistence vanishes, however, when performance is measured by abnormal returns. We find little, if any, evidence of herding, i.e., cross-sectional dependence of recommendations, across newsletters. Newsletters tend to recommend securities that have performed well in the recent past. Finally, newsletters with poor past performance are more likely to go out of business.

THE VALUE OF THE FIRM UNDER REGULATION

Journal of Finance 1976 31(2), 701-713
The basic theoretical relationships between the value of the firm and leverage were set forth by Modigliani and Miller (MM). Much work has tested the MM relationships empirically, including studies which used data from regulated industries. Gordon has stated that, because earnings before interest and taxes are not held constant in regulated industries, the MM formula used in empirical work is invalid. However, Elton-Gruber (EG) challenge Gordon’s statement. The present paper shows that both the Gordon and the EG formulae hold only under special conditions. Under "normal" conditions of demand, both formulae underestimate the value of the levered firm. We show that there is no a priori method of estimating the effect of leverage on the value of a regulated firm without knowledge of specific supply and demand conditions. As researchers do not usually know these conditions, the results of papers testing the MM propositions with data on regulated industries are ambiguous. General formulae for the discount rate and the valuation of a levered firm in a regulated industry are presented.