This thesis explores the role of inflationary expectations in the dynamics of a general equilibrium, macroeconomic system.The analysis attempts to synthesize and extend the monetary models of Philip Cagan, Lloyd Metzler, and Don Patinkin, and dermine the stability properties of such extended models.Chapter 1 traces the history of the importance of inflationary expectations in the works of macro-economists.Although long recognized as important by the "monetarists," especially Irving Fisher, the importance of price expectations is now readily acknowledged by the "Keynesian" School of macro-economists.Chapter 2 examines the dynamics and properties of the Cagan model in detail, carefully indicating the assumptions which will later be relaxed in order to treat more general models.A critical examination of the role of adaptive expectations of the price level is presented in this chapter.Chapter 3 rigorously details the comparative statics of a Keynesian model by analyzing equilibrium in both the "asset" and "commodity"market as a "stock" and "flow" equilibrium.The following chapter discusses the dynamic adjustment of such a Keynesian model and the role of inflationary expectations is determined to be a key aspect of the determination of price behavior in the commodity market.Chapter 5 synthesizes the dynamic adjustment mechanism developed earlier into a full Keynesian model with both fixed and endogenous real income and a Fisherian, classical model of economic adjustment.The stability conditions of these general models are compared to those of the simple Cagan model discussed in Chapter 2.Chapter 6 examines the properties of proportional monetary policy in the context of the models developed in the previous chapter.Computer simulations of these policies are provided.In particular, it is shown that counter-cyclical monetary policy on the money rate of interest is the most effective proportional policy for damping the economy to equilibrium.The final, seventh chapter explains why the above policy is tantamount to the stabilization of a broader monetary aggregate in an economy consisting of a competitive, unregulated banking industry.The last chapter also extend the Keynesian system to allow for both a "long" and "short" interest rate and hence allows for a "lag" in the effect of monetary policy on the real economy.

A simple stochastic model is developed which demonstrates that information on the nominal value of money conveys sufficient information about the disturbance to currency and deposit demand so that monetary prices, such as adjusting the level of bank reserves, have no impact on the dispersion of price level forecast errors. However, if information on monetary aggregates is obtained only with a lag, then reserve requirements can reduce the disturbances to the demand for high-powered money and hence prices. Such a reserve ratio depends critically on the variance-covariance matrix of shocks to the monetary demands.

A simple stochastic model is developed which demonstrates that information on the nominal value of money conveys sufficient information about the disturbance to currency and deposit demand so that monetary prices, such as adjusting the level of bank reserves, have no impact on the dispersion of price level forecast errors. However, if information on monetary aggregates is obtained only with a lag, then reserve requirements can reduce the disturbances to the demand for high-powered money and hence prices. Such a reserve ratio depends critically on the variance-covariance matrix of shocks to the monetary demands.

Foreword. Introduction. Chapter 1: Banking and Interest Rates in a World Without Money: The Effects of Uncontrolled Banking. Chapter 2: Active and Passive Monetary Policy in a Neoclassical Model. Chapter 3: Rational Economic Behavior and the Balance of Payments. Chapter 4: Uniqueness of the Price Level in Monetary Growth Models with Rational Expectations. Chapter 5: Purchasing Power Parity in an Equilibrium Model. Chapter 6: Ups and Downs in Human Capital and Business. Chapter 7: How Passive Monetary Policy Might Work. Chapter 8: What a Non-Monetarist Thinks. Chapter 9: Global Monetarism in a World of National Currencies. Chapter 10: The ABCs of Business Cycles. Chapter 11: A Gold Standard with Double Feedback and Near Zero Reserves. Chapter 12: The Trouble with Econometric Models. Chapter 13: General Equilibrium and Business Cycles. Chapter 14: Noise. Index.

Anthony M. Santomero, Jeremy J. Siegel, A General Equilibrium Money and Banking Paradigm, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 37, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Fortieth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, Washington, D.C., December 28-30, 1981 (May, 1982), pp. 357-369

This paper analyzes the correlation between interest rates and prices which as persisted for the past quarter of a millennium and has been termed the Gibson Paradox. Spectral techniques confirm the correlation between long-term interest rates and prices for very long-term swings (the Gibson Paradox), but indicate a significant short cycle correlation only for short-term interest rates, which we term the Kitchin Phenomenon. Past explanations of these correlations have often failed to distinguish cycle lengths and term of interest rates involved. Our analysis rejects Irving Fisher's "price expectation" explanation and the Sargent-Wicksell velocity of money explanations. We propose alternative explanations which in part relate to the characteristic behavior of governments during wartime and in part to distributional effects of unanticipated inflation. Our analysis strongly suggests that prior to World War I nominal long and short rates of interest can be regarded as real rates.