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Do firms manage their share prices to mitigate investor short-termism?

Journal of Corporate Finance 2024 84, 102505
Recent work documents a behavioral tendency of investors to expect excessively high upside potential for low-priced stocks. These expectations expose low-priced firms to greater pressure for short-term performance because their poor earnings news leads to greater investor disappointment and larger stock price declines. Therefore, we hypothesize that firms with a long-term focus, such as those that invest heavily in research and development (R&D), avoid low share prices. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that firms with higher R&D capital decide on a higher filing price in their initial public offering, are less likely to undergo a stock split once listed, and upon a stock split, choose a higher post-split price. We establish a causal link between firms' R&D and share price management by exploiting the exogenous increases in R&D expenditures induced by the staggered introduction of state-level R&D tax credits in the US. Our study suggests that firms with large R&D capital target high share prices to shield their long-term investments from investor short-termism.

What are the benefits of attracting gambling investors? Evidence from stock splits in China

Journal of Corporate Finance 2022 74, 102199
By analyzing a sample of Chinese firms that split their stocks via stock dividends and using proprietary trading data to measure investors' gambling preferences, we find that stock splits raise the stocks' lottery characteristics, making them attractive to gambling investors, who willingly pay higher prices for skewed securities and share firm risk with existing shareholders. Split firms take more risk. Our findings suggest that by attracting gambling investors, stock splits facilitate (large) shareholders to reduce wealth exposures to firm risk and increase the firms' risk-taking capacity. Furthermore, due to the influx of gambling investors and more risk-taking, split firms' return comovement with lottery-like stocks increases, while their market risk decreases, suggesting that stock splits induce fundamental changes to the firms' investor base and risk profile.

The Relation between Aggregate Insider Transactions and Stock Market Returns

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1993 28(3), 431
A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to examine the relation between aggregate insider transactions and stock market returns. Consistent with the extant literature, there is some predictive content associated with aggregate insider transactions, but its magnitude is slight. In contrast, market returns have substantial influence on the aggregate purchases and sales of corporate insiders. The findings suggest that: 1) the degree of mispricing observed by insiders is small; 2) very little of the mispricing is associated with unanticipated macroeconomic factors; and 3) investors cannot use aggregate insider transactions to profitably predict future market returns over the following eight weeks.

The R&D Premium and Takeover Risk

The Accounting Review 2016 91(3), 955-971
ABSTRACT To explain why firms with high research and development (R&D) intensity offer their investors higher stock returns, we argue that (1) high R&D capacity relative to firm valuation makes R&D-intensive firms attractive takeover targets, and that (2) the higher takeover probability leads their investors to face higher takeover risk, as proposed by Cremers, Nair, and John (2009), and require higher returns. We find evidence consistent with our hypothesis. Furthermore, we find that takeover probability also relates to large R&D increases, but not to innovation efficiency. Accordingly, we expect and find that takeover risk helps to explain the premium associated with large R&D increases, but not the innovation efficiency premium previously documented. JEL Classifications: G12; O31.

Insider Trading in the OTC Market

Journal of Finance 1990 45(4), 1273
In this paper, we examine the profitability of insider trading in firms whose securities trade in the OTC/NASDAQ market. Although the evidence suggests timing and forecasting ability on the part of insiders, high transaction costs (especially bid-ask spreads) appear to eliminate the potential for positive abnormal returns from active trading. By implication, outside investors who mimic the trading of insiders are also precluded from earning abnormal profits. In addition, we provide evidence on the determinants of insiders' profits. The data suggest that insiders closer to the firm trade on more valuable information than insiders removed from the firm.

Insider Trading in the OTC Market

Journal of Finance 1990 45(4), 1273-1284
ABSTRACT In this paper, we examine the profitability of insider trading in firms whose securities trade in the OTC/NASDAQ market. Although the evidence suggests timing and forecasting ability on the part of insiders, high transaction costs (especially bid‐ask spreads) appear to eliminate the potential for positive abnormal returns from active trading. By implication, outside investors who mimic the trading of insiders are also precluded from earning abnormal profits. In addition, we provide evidence on the determinants of insiders' profits. The data suggest that insiders closer to the firm trade on more valuable information than insiders removed from the firm.

Dividend policy, signaling, and discounts on closed-end funds

Journal of Financial Economics 2006 81(3), 539-562
We test the predictions of dividend signaling models using closed-end equity funds that adopt explicit policies committing them to pay minimum dividend yields. These policies represent deliberate attempts to reduce share price undervaluation relative to NAV. Funds that adopt minimum dividend policies experience reductions in their share price discounts, trade at smaller discounts than other funds, earn greater excess returns following policy adoption, and their managers survive longer than other managers do. The results are broadly consistent with the predictions of dividend signaling models, and suggest that high quality closed-end funds can reduce undervaluation via dividend policy.

Does air quality affect inventor productivity? Evidence from the NOx budget program

Journal of Corporate Finance 2022 73, 102170
Using the NOx budget program (NBP) as a quasi-natural experiment, we study how air quality affects the productivity of patent inventors. Motivated by previous studies linking air quality to people's risk-taking tendencies and cognitive abilities, we find that after the implementation of the NBP, inventors located in NBP participating states produce more patents and the quality of their patents increases. These inventors engage more in exploratory innovation and less in exploitative innovation, and they shift their strategies toward risky, high-value innovation. Our findings suggest that risk-taking and cognitive ability are the channels through which improved air quality enhances inventor productivity.

IPO auctions and private information

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(5), 1483-1500
IPO auctions, which provide an impartial way of determining IPO pricing and share allocations, offer a natural setting for examining whether institutional investors possess private information, and for measuring how valuable their information is. Analyzing detailed bidding data from Taiwan’s discriminatory (pay-as-bid) auctions, we find that, relative to retail investors, institutional investors tend to bid higher in auctions when IPO shares are more valuable, and that underpricing is larger in auctions with relatively higher institutional bids. These results imply that institutional investors are better informed about IPO value, and that they obtain higher information rents when they bid higher relative to retail investors. We estimate the value of institutional investors’ private information to be worth about 8.68% of return, which is the extra rate of return they command on their informational advantages over retail investors.

Trading and Pricing in Upstairs and Downstairs Stock Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(4), 1111-1135
We provide empirical evidence on the economic benefits of negotiating trades in the upstairs trading room of brokerage firms relative to the downstairs market. Using Helsinki Stock Exchange data, we find that upstairs trades tend to have lower information content and lower price impacts than downstairs trades. This is consistent with the hypotheses that the upstairs market is better at pricing uninformed liquidity trades and that upstairs brokers can give better prices to their customers if they know the unexpressed demands of other customers. We find that these economic benefits depend on price discovery occurring in the downstairs market.