It is generally believed that the increased incidence of homelessness in the United States has arisen from broad societal factors, such as changes in the institutionalization of the mentally ill, increases in drug addiction and alcohol usage, and so forth. This paper presents a comprehensive test of the alternate hypothesis that variations in homelessness arise from changed circumstances in the housing market and in the income distribution. We assemble essentially all the systematic information available on homelessness in U.S. urban areas: census counts, shelter bed counts, records of transfer payments, and administrative agency estimates. We estimate similar statistical models using four different samples of data on the incidence of homelessness, defined according to very different criteria. Our results suggest that simple economic principles governing the availability and pricing of housing and the growth in demand for the lowest-quality housing explain a large portion of the variation in homelessness among U.S. metropolitan housing markets. Furthermore, rather modest improvements in the affordability of rental housing or its availability can substantially reduce the incidence of homelessness in the United States. 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

As applied to the behavior of homeowners with mortgages, option theory predicts that mortgage prepayment or default will be exercised if the call or put option is ‘in the money’ by some specific amount. Our analysis: tests the extent to which the option approach can explain default and prepayment behavior; evaluates the practical importance of modeling both options simultaneously; and models the unobserved heterogeneity of borrowers in the home mortgage market. The paper presents a unified model of the competing risks of mortgage termination by prepayment and default, considering the two hazards as dependent competing risks that are estimated jointly. It also accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity among borrowers, and estimates the unobserved heterogeneity simultaneously with the parameters and baseline hazards associated with prepayment and default functions. Our results show that the option model, in its most straightforward version, does a good job of explaining default and prepayment, but it is not enough by itself. The simultaneity of the options is very important empirically in explaining behavior. The results also show that there exists significant heterogeneity among mortgage borrowers. Ignoring this heterogeneity results in serious errors in estimating the prepayment behavior of homeowners.

We analyze the economics of green building, finding that recent increases in the supply of green buildings and the volatility in property markets have not affected the returns to green buildings. We then analyze a large cross-section of office buildings, demonstrating that economic returns to energy-efficient buildings are substantial. Finally, we relate the economic premiums for green buildings to their relative efficiency in energy use—the attributes rated for thermal efficiency, as well as sustainability, contribute to premiums in rents and asset values. Among green buildings, increased energy efficiency is fully capitalized into rents and asset values.

We analyze the diffusion of buildings certified for energy efficiency across US property markets. Using a panel of 48 metropolitan areas (MSAs) observed over the last 15 years, we model the geographic patterns and dynamics of building certification, relating industry composition, changes in economic conditions, characteristics of the local commercial property market, and the presence of human capital, to the cross-sectional variation in energy-efficient building technologies and the diffusion of those technologies over time. Understanding the determinants and the rate at which energy-efficient building practices diffuse is important for designing policies to affect resource consumption in the built environment.

This paper provides the first credible evidence on the economic value of “green buildings” derived from impersonal market transactions rather than engineering estimates. We analyze clusters of certified green and nearby buildings, establishing that “rated” buildings command substantially higher rents and selling prices than otherwise identical buildings. Variations in premiums are systematically related to energy-saving characteristics. Increased energy efficiency is associated with increased selling prices -- beyond the premiums paid for a labeled building. Evidence suggests that the intangible effects of the label itself may also play a role in determining the values of green buildings in the marketplace.