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Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(3), 925-957 open access
Do bond investors demand credit quality or liquidity? The answer is both, but at different<br/>times and for different reasons. Using data on the Euro-area government bond market,<br/>which features a unique negative correlation between credit quality and liquidity across<br/>countries, we show that the bulk of sovereign yield spreads is explained by differences<br/>in credit quality, though liquidity plays a nontrivial role, especially for low credit risk<br/>countries and during times of heightened market uncertainty. In contrast, the destination of<br/>large flows into the bond market is determined almost exclusively by liquidity.We conclude<br/>that credit quality matters for bond valuation but that, in times of market stress, investors<br/>chase liquidity, not credit quality.

Technical Analysis and Liquidity Provision

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(4), 1043-1071
The apparent conflict between the level of resources dedicated to technical analysis by practitioners and academic theories of market efficiency is a long-standing puzzle. We explore a previously unexamined feature of technical analysis — namely its relation to liquidity provision. We demonstrate that support and resistance levels coincide with peaks in depth on the limit order book and moving average forecasts reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. Furthermore, we show that these relationships stem from technical rules locating depth already in place on the limit order book.

An Examination of Changes in Specialists’ Posted Price Schedules

Review of Financial Studies 2001 14(3), 681-704
New York Stock Exchange specialists disseminate information to market participants by displaying price schedules consisting of bid prices, ask prices, bid depths, and ask depths. We examine how specialists update these price schedules in a simultaneous equations model. We find that changes in the best prices and depths on the limit order book have a significant impact on the posted price schedule, while the effects of transactions and order activity are secondary. Furthermore, we show that specialists revise prices and depths differently, but find no evidence that they revise the price schedule in response to changes in inventory.