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Tax-loss harvesting under uncertainty

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 140, 106528
We provide market-based evidence that a capital loss that is realized in the beginning of the year is less valuable than a loss that is taken at the end of the year. A simple binomial tree model that captures the resolution of tax rate uncertainty closely mimics observed market prices. Tax rate uncertainty arises from not knowing until the end of the calendar year whether the investor will have realized sufficient capital gains to fully benefit from losses harvested early in the year. We conclude that tax rate uncertainty influences investor behavior.

Government policy and ownership of equity securities

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 111(1), 70-85
Since World War II, direct stock ownership by households across the globe has largely been replaced by indirect stock ownership by financial institutions. We argue that tax and retirement policies are among the factors behind these changes. We develop empirical measures of two tax incentives of holding stocks inside tax-deferred plans, tax-free investment income and the smoothing benefit. Using long time-series from eight countries, we show that the fraction of household ownership decreases with these measures of the tax benefits. This finding contributes to policy debates on effective taxation and to financial economics research on the long-term effects of taxation on corporate finance and asset prices.

The tax benefit of income smoothing

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 38, 78-88
A worker can reduce tax liability by contributing to a private pension plan when marginal tax rates are high and withdraw pension benefits when marginal tax rates are low. We quantify the tax benefit of income smoothing through the private retirement system and find that it is negligible. This conclusion is important to households, investment advisers, tax policymakers, and scholars engaged in financial retirement planning.

Strategic Behavior and Underpricing in Uniform Price Auctions: Evidence from Finnish Treasury Auctions

Journal of Finance 2005 60(4), 1865-1902 open access
We contribute to the debate on the optimal design of multiunit auctions by developing and testing robust implications of the leading theory of uniform price auctions on the bid distributions submitted by individual bidders. The theory, which emphasizes market power, has little support in a data set of Finnish Treasury auctions. A reason may be that the Treasury acts strategically by determining supply after observing bids, apparently treating the auctions as a repeated game between itself and primary dealers. Bidder behavior and underpricing react to the volatility of bond returns in a way that suggests bidders adjust for the winner's curse.

Bidder Behavior in Multiunit Auctions: Evidence from Swedish Treasury Auctions

Journal of Political Economy 2002 110(2), 394-424 open access
We analyze a unique data set on multiunit auctions, which contains the actual demand schedules of the bidders as well as the auction awards in over 400 Swedish Treasury auctions. First, we document that bidders vary their prices, bid dispersion, and the quantity demanded in response to increased uncertainty at the time of bidding. Second, we find that bid shading can be explained by a winner’s curse–driven model in which each bidder submits only one bid, despite the fact that the bidders in our data set use much richer bidding strategies. Third, we explore the extent to which the received theories of multiunit auctions are able to offer insights into the bidder behavior we observe. Our empirical evidence is consistent with some of the predictions of the models of auctions that emphasize private information, the winner’s curse and the champion’s plague. While the models of multiunit auctions serve as useful guideposts, our empirical findings also point to several new areas of research in multiunit auctions that are of policy and theoretical interest.