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An Interactive Market-Planning Procedure

Econometrica 1976 44(6), 1141
[A process which combines a planning procedure for the allocation of final products and a multilateral nonrecontracting trading process for allocating primary and intermediate goods is defined and shown to satisfy Malinvaud's criteria for evaluating planning procedures. Central processing costs are lower than in the Malinvaud procedure since the central planner only collects information on final products.]

Tax Allocation and Security Prices: A Comment.

The Accounting Review 1976 51(2), 391-395
Abstract In two recent articles in the periodical "The Accounting Review," Beaver and Dukes (B⁄D), have used market association tests to assess the relative information content of accounting earnings numbers under various tax allocation principles. This article is a brief comment on two of their measures of association, "Percent Correct" and "Composite Average Price Index (API)." Correct interpretation of these measures is important for policy makers who might rely on their results and for researchers who may want to use their research method. The reinterpretation of the ⁄D data does not change the conclusions they draw regarding the consistency of different earnings numbers with the set of information used in setting security prices. Rather, its significance lies in the added confidence a policy maker can put in these results. There seems to be no ex ante reason to expect negative composite APl's or especially that the proportion of times that positive forecast errors are associated with negative unexpected price changes should be statistically significant.

Capital Asset Pricing with Price Level Changes

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1976 11(3), 381
A capital asset-pricing model which relates risk and return under conditions of changing price levels has been developed in this paper. The resulting model implies that price-level changes do not affect the expected real returns on individual assets except through their impact on the return of the market portfolio. If real market returns are independent of price-level movements, the model is very much like the standard capital asset-pricing model expressed in real returns. This version of the capital asset-pricing model does not, however, resolve all the difficulties associated with changing price levels, since we have assumed that the nominal default-free rate is determined outside the model and that relative prices do not change. These limitations, however, also apply to all other single-period capital asset-pricing models.In addition, the model was converted into nominal returns by assuming that price-level changes and the real market returns are uncorrelated. The resulting equation illustrates the difficulty involved in using nominal returns to test a model expressed in real returns. The same equation also provides a possible explanation for the noted discrepancies between the empirical' evidence found by Black, Jensen, and Scholes [3] and the prediction of the traditional capital asset-pricing model.

Stock Price Movement Associated with Temporary Trading Suspensions: Bear Market Versus Bull Market

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1976 11(4), 577
A temporary trading suspension in a listed security represents a temporal discontinuity in a continuous auction market. Although the SEC occasionally suspends trading in specific securities, the NYSE itself administratively halts trading in individual NYSE issues. The latter occur quite frequently (almost three per day on average), and typically last about two hours. NYSE-initiated suspensions are the focus of the present paper.

An Algorithm for Determining the Distribution Function of the Durbin-Watson Test Statistic

Econometrica 1976 44(6), 1325
IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS most empirical economists use the well-known Durbin-Watson (DW) procedure [1] to test the hypothesis of no autocorrelation among the disturbances of a linear regression model against the hypothesis of a first-order autocorrelation. The use of this procedure is compromised by the fact that it is a bounds text and, hence, cannot discriminate between the two competing hypotheses for a range of intermediate values of the test statistic. This shortcoming can be eliminated by determining the distribution function [5] for the Durbin-Watson test statistic and enumerating it for a given level of significance and a particular regression matrix. The authors have written a FORTRAN IV program for finding the probability that the DW test statistic is less than the observed value if the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation were true. The program enables the investigator to perform the DW test for either positive or negative correlation by comparing the above probability to a specified level of significance. This procedure provides a conclusive test for first-order autocorrelation. The procedure begins with a transformation of the Durbin-Watson test statistic stated as