This study examines the stock market forecasts and portfolio allocation decisions of small individual investors, based on survey data for 1987-1994. When investors are bullish, they increase their equity holdings; when investors are bearish, they decrease equity holdings. The surveyed investors are unable to time the stock market successfully. However, the shifts in their portfolios reflect past market movements and are consistent with positive feedback trading. I. Introduction There can be no doubt that, over short horizons, stock price changes are highly unpredictable. Nevertheless, many individuals discover seeming in past prices and trade based on the expectation that the trends will persist. De Long, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann (1990) call these investors positive feedback traders.

In this study, we appeal to insights and results from Davidson and Neu 1993 and McConomy 1998 to motivate empirical analyses designed to gain a better understanding of the relationship between auditor quality and forecast accuracy. We extend and refine Davidson and Neu's analysis of this relationship by introducing additional controls for business risk and by considering data from two distinct time periods: one in which the audit firm's responsibility respecting the earnings forecast was to provide review-level assurance, and one in which its responsibility was to provide audit-level assurance. Our sample data consist of Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) initial public offerings (IPOs). The earnings forecast we consider is the one-year-ahead management earnings forecast included in the IPO offering prospectus. The results suggest that after the additional controls for business risk are introduced, the relationship between forecast accuracy and auditor quality for the review-level assurance period is no longer significant. The results also indicate that the shift in regimes alters the fundamental nature of the relationship. Using data from the audit-level assurance regime, we find a negative and significant relationship between forecast accuracy and auditor quality (i.e., we find Big 6 auditors to be associated with smaller absolute forecast errors than non-Big 6 auditors), and further, that the difference in the relationship between the two regimes is statistically significant.

This study investigates the joint effects of accountability and time budgets on auditors' testing strategies. The task studied, substantive analytical procedures, requires auditors to identify and test hypotheses when investigating the cause of unexpected fluctuations. Thus, auditors must determine the number of tests to conduct (i.e., extent), the number of potential hypotheses to directly test (i.e., breadth), the number of tests for each hypothesis (i.e., depth) and the number of potential error or non‐error hypotheses to test (i.e., focus). Testing strategies, which we define as choices made with respect to extent, focus, depth, and breadth of testing, have significant practical and theoretical implications. For example, reducing the breadth of testing may result in failure to test the correct hypothesis, potentially impairing audit effectiveness. In this study, auditors inherited five potential causes of an unexpected increase in the gross margin of a client. As in practice, their task was to conduct tests to investigate and identify the actual cause of the fluctuation. Auditors were randomly assigned to one of four conditions created by fully crossing accountability and time budgets. The results indicate that accountability leads to an increase in the extent and breadth of testing but does not affect the depth of testing. Further, accountability leads to an increase in the testing of errors but results in a decrease in the testing of non‐errors. The focus on breadth and error testing is consistent with the notion that accountability, to a superior with unspecified preferences, promotes more cautious behavior. The results also show that a time budget decreases the extent and depth of testing but does not affect the breadth of testing. There was no evidence that the two factors interactively affected testing strategies or performance. Finally, increased breadth of testing was the mechanism that led to better performance as measured by the identification of the actual cause of the unexpected fluctuation.

We examine valuation effects of announcements of seasoned equity issuance and assess the impact of the choice of flotation method in the U.K. Rights offerings are predominant, but in 1986, British firms gained the flexibility to conduct placings, which are comparable to U.S. firm commitment offerings. A placing is a fixed-price bought deal that increases ownership dispersion. Placings generate significantly positive share price effects, whereas rights offerings have large negative valuation effects that become more adverse after 1985. We conclude that the option to conduct placings enhances the ability of firms to signal their quality and to use a seasoned equity offering to reduce ownership concentration.

This paper uses insider trading around new security issues to provide evidence of managerial timing ability. I show that insider sales increase and purchases decrease prior to issues of information-sensitive securities (convertible debt and equity) by industrial firms. I then examine the relation between insider trading and subsequent stock returns. Although not all equity issues are motivated by overvaluation, those where managers sell prior to the issue are more likely to be. I find that industrial firms with abnormal insider selling underperform in the long run, whereas those with abnormal buying do not. There is no evidence of a relation between abnormal selling and future performance for utility offerings, however. Overall, the evidence is consistent with poor long-term performance being due to overvaluation.

An important group of traders in the foreign exchange market is governments who often adhere to a foreign exchange rate policy of occasional interventions with otherwise floating rates. In this article we provide a theoretical model and empirical evidence that government foreign exchange interventions create significant adverse selection problems for dealers. In particular, our model shows that the adverse selection component of the foreign exchange spread is positively related to the variance of unexpected intervention and that expected intervention has no impact on the spread. After controlling for inventory and order processing costs, we find that bid-ask spreads increase with U.S. dollar and German deutsche mark foreign exchange rate intervention during the period 1976-1994. Furthermore, when the intervention is decomposed into expected and unexpected components, we find a statistically and economically significant increase in spreads with the variance of unexpected intervention, while expected intervention has no significant impact on spreads.

We consider the dynamic private provision of funds to projects that generate public benefits. Participants have complete information about the environment, but imperfect information about individual actions: each period they observe only the aggregate contribution. Each player may contribute any amount in any period before the contributing horizon is reached. All Nash equilibrium outcomes are characterized. In many cases they are all also perfect Bayesian equilibrium outcomes. If the horizon is long, if the players' preferences are similar, and if they are patient or the period length is short, perfect Bayesian equilibria exist that essentially complete the project. In some of them the completion time shrinks to zero with the period length—efficiency is achieved in the limit.