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Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch

American Economic Review 2011 101(5), 2003-2041 open access
This paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential Malthusian theory, according to which improvements in the technological environment during the pre-industrial era had generated only temporary gains in income per capita, eventually leading to a larger, but not significantly richer, population. Exploiting exogenous sources of cross-country variations in land productivity and the level of technological advancement the analysis demonstrates that, in accordance with the theory, technological superiority and higher land productivity had significant positive effects on population density but insignificant effects on the standard of living, during the time period 1-1500 CE.

Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence

Review of Economic Studies 2008 75(4), 1143-1179 open access
This research argues that the differential effect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment in education and growth in income per capita, whereas a significant portion of these gains in less developed economies have been channeled towards population growth. Cross-country regressions establish that indeed trade has positive effects on fertility and negative effects on education in non-OECD economies, while inducing fertility decline and human capital formation in OECD economies.

Income Distribution and Macroeconomics

Review of Economic Studies 1993 60(1), 35
This paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital. It is shown that in the presence of credit markets' imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital, the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run, as there are multiple steady states. This paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per-capita output across countries. Furthermore, the paper shows that cross-country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed, among other factors, to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries.

The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference

American Economic Review 2016 106(10), 3064-3103 open access
This research explores the origins of observed differences in time preference across countries and regions. Exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that pre-industrial agro-climatic characteristics that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, triggered selection, adaptation and learning processes that generated a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era. Furthermore, the research establishes that these agro-climatic characteristics have had a culturally embodied impact on economic behavior such as technological adoption, education, saving, and smoking.

Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection

American Economic Review 2006 96(2), 299-303
The last two centuries have been characterized by dramatic changes in the distribution of income and population across the globe. While Western European economies have tripled their domination in terms of income per capita over Asian economies, significant resources in Asian countries have been channeled into to doubling their lead over Western Europe in the population dimension. This research argues that the rapid expansion of international trade in the second phase of the industrial revolution has played a major role in the timing of demographic transitions across countries and has thereby been a significant determinant of the distribution of world population and a prime cause of the ‘Great Divergence ’ in income levels across countries in the last two centuries. The analysis suggests that international trade had an asymmetrical effect on the evolution of industrial and non-industrial economies. While in the industrial nations the gains from trade were directed primarily towards investment in education and growth in output per capita, a significant portion of the gains from trade in non-industrial nations was channeled towards population growth. In the second phase of the Industrial Revolution, international trade enhanced the spe-cialization of industrial economies in the production of industrial, skilled intensive, goods. The associated rise in the demand for skilled labor induced an investment in the quality of the population, expediting a demographic transition, stimulating technological progress and fur-ther enhancing the comparative advantage of these industrial economies in the production of skilled intensive goods. In non-industrial economies, in contrast, international trade generated an incentive to specialize in the production of unskilled intensive, non-industrial, goods. The

A Theory of Career Mobility

Journal of Political Economy 1990 98(1), 169-192
This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the role and significance of occupational mobility in the labor market, focusing on individuals' careers. It provides additional dimensions to the analysis of investment in human capital; wage differences across individuals; and the relationships among promotions, quits, and interfirm occupational mobility. It is shown that part of the returns to education is in the form of higher probabilities of occupational upgrading, within or across firms. Given an origin occupation, schooling increases the likelihood of occupational upgrading. Furthermore, workers who are not promoted, despite a high probability of promotion, are more likely to quit.

Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond

American Economic Review 2000 90(4), 806-828
This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained income growth.

From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth

American Economic Review 1999 89(2), 150-154 open access
This paper examines the historical evolution of the relationship between population growth, technological change, and the standard of living.It considers several unified models that encompass the transition between three distinct regimes that have characterized the process of economic development: ``The Malthusian Regime," ``The Post-Malthusian Regime," and the ``Modern Growth Regime".We view the unified modeling of this long transition process -from thousand of years of Malthusian stagnation through the demographic transition to modern growth -as one of the most significant research challenges facing economists interested in growth and development.

Diversity and Conflict

Econometrica 2020 88(2), 727-797 open access
This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity, rather than fractionalization or polarization across ethnic groups, has been pivotal to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, the study demonstrates that population diversity, and its impact on the degree of diversity within ethnic groups, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary civil conflicts. The findings arguably reflect the contribution of population diversity to the non-cohesivnesss of society, as reflected partly in the prevalence of mistrust, the divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.