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The Effects of General Price Controls in the United States during World War II

Journal of Political Economy 1982 90(5), 944-966
This paper estimates a general equilibrium model of suppressed inflation using quarterly U.S. data for the sample period 1942:IV-48:II. It finds that the pricelevel was reduced by at least 30.4 percent and that this suppression of inflation reduced employment by at least 11.7 percent and output by at least 7.1 percent. It also finds that monetary policy could have been equally successful in combating inflation but would not have had the side effect of reducing employment and output.

The Effects of General Price Controls in the United States during World War II

Journal of Political Economy 1982 90(5), 944-966
This paper estimates a general equilibrium model of suppressed inflation using quarterly U.S. data for the sample period 1942:IV-48:II. It finds that the pricelevel was reduced by at least 30.4 percent and that this suppression of inflation reduced employment by at least 11.7 percent and output by at least 7.1 percent. It also finds that monetary policy could have been equally successful in combating inflation but would not have had the side effect of reducing employment and output.

A Tale of Two Effects

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2008 90(1), 147-157
This paper investigates the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices using nearly two centuries of data from ten industrial countries. Both a positive relationship between interest rates and price levels (that is, a positive Gibson effect) and a negative relationship between interest rates and subsequent price changes (that is, a negative Fama-Fisher effect) prevailed until World War I. We propose a simple explanation wherein this doubly paradoxical juxtaposition of effects arises when money is supplied inelastically and prices are flexible. This double paradox disappeared after World War II when economies became mostly characterized by elastic money and sticky prices. During that period, a positive Fama-Fisher effect emerged while the Gibson effect largely dissipated.

Do Economies Converge? Evidence From a Panel of U.S. States

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 78(3), 384
This paper investigates whether the forty-eight contiguous U.S. states converge and, if so, whether convergence is absolute. Economies are shown to converge if, and only if, technology is stationary around a common trend. If convergence does occur, it is unlikely to be absolute unless the economy fixed effects in technology, capital's share, and the rental rate vanish. Examining data on the level of technology, capital's share, and the rental rate provides strong evidence that the continuous U.S. states converge rapidly to levels that are far apart. The rapidity of convergence suggests that factors and technology are highly mobile across the contiguous U.S. states.

Are Government Activities Productive? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1994 76(1), 1
Using panel data for the forty-eight contiguous U.S. states in each year between 1970 and 1986, this paper investigates the extent to which government capital and current government services contribute to private production. The paper finds fairly strong evidence that current government educational services are productive but no evidence that the other government activities considered are productive. Indeed, government capital often has statistically significant negative productivity. The results are robust across the many specifications considered.