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Time Variation in the News–Returns Relationship

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(1), 258-294 open access
The speed of stock price reaction to news exhibits substantial time variation. Higher risk-bearing capacity of financial intermediaries, lower passive ownership of stocks, and more informative news increase price responses to contemporaneous news; surprisingly, these interaction variables also increase price responses to lagged news (underreaction). A simple model with limited attention and three investor types (institutional, noninstitutional, and passive) predicts the observed variation in news responses. A long–short trading strategy based on news sentiment earns high returns, which increase when conditioning on the interaction variables. The interactions we document are robust to the choice of news source.

Contingent Capital, Tail Risk, and Debt-Induced Collapse

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(11), 3921-3969
We study the design and incentive effects of contingent convertible debt. With contingent convertibles, the endogenous bankruptcy boundary can be at either of two levels: one with lower default risk or one at which default precedes conversion. An increase in debt moves the firm from the first regime to the second, a phenomenon we call debt-induced collapse. Setting the conversion trigger sufficiently high avoids this hazard. Given this condition, we investigate the effect of contingent capital and debt maturity on optimal capital structure, debt overhang, and asset substitution. We calibrate the model to large banks during the financial crisis. Received April 10, 2015; editorial decision March 20, 2017 by Editor Leonid Kogan.