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Utilisation par les prêteurs commerciaux de l'information comptable en interaction avec la crédibilité de la source*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1994 10(2), 587-623
Résumé. La crédibilité des différents emprunteurs commerciaux, que les prêteurs assimilent à la notion de ≪ conduite ≫, influe sur l'utilisation que font ces derniers de l'information comptable. L'incidence de la crédibilité de la source est subtile par rapport à celle de l'opinion des vérificateurs externes sur l'utilisation des états financiers dans d'autres contextes. L'auteur pose l'hypothèse selon laquelle les faits comptables doivent être positifs (c'est‐à‐dire avaliser le prêt) pour que les faits relatifs à la conduite des emprunteurs influent sur les jugements des prêteurs et sur leurs décisions de prêt. Les faits liés à la conduite des emprunteurs n'auront pas d'incidence appréciable sur les jugements ou les décisions de prêt si les faits comptables sont négatifs (c'est‐à‐dire qu'ils incitent le prêteur à refuser le prêt). Cette interaction entre les faits comptables et la conduite des emprunteurs devrait s'accentuer à mesure que les prêteurs acquièrent de l'expérience et élaborent des critères qui leur permettent d'évaluer cette conduite. L'auteur s'est livré à une expérience dans le cadre de laquelle des prêteurs ont lu une demande de crédit qui contenait certains faits d'ordre comptable, des faits relatifs à la conduite de l'emprunteur et divers autres renseignements; les faits comptables et les faits portant sur la conduite ont été manipulés de façon qu'ils soient tantôt positifs, tantôt négatifs, ce qui a donné lieu à quatre versions de la demande de crédit. Les prêteurs recommandaient ensuite l'autorisation ou le refus du prêt et estimaient la probabilité que ce dernier soit intégralement remboursé (estimation du risque). L'expérience a permis d'établir les conséquences interactives des faits comptables et des faits liés à la conduite des emprunteurs sur les décisions de prêt et les estimations du risque formulées par les prêteurs, mais les interactions entre les faits comptables et la conduite ne variaient pas, de façon générale, avec le niveau d'expérience. Une différence est cependant digne de mention: les prêteurs expérimentés n'ont jamais autorisé de prêts lorsque les faits comptables étaient négatifs, ce qui n'est pas toujours le cas des prêteurs inexpérimentés.

The magnitudes of financial statement effects and accounting choice

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1994 18(1), 89-114
We examine the accounting choice decision in the context of the timing of adoption of SFAS 87. Unlike most prior studies, we consider interactions between firm characteristics and the magnitudes of the financial statement effects of an accounting decision. We expect that including interactions will both enhance the ability to explain accounting choice, and facilitate distinction between omitted variables (Ball and Foster, 1982) and hypothesized relations. Results are consistent with these expectations.

Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(3), 659-684
We present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the standard growth model modified to include precautionary saving motives and liquidity constraints. We address the impact on the aggregate saving rate, the importance of asset trading to individuals, and the relative inequality of wealth and income distributions.

Testing the Theory of Tournaments: An Empirical Analysis of Broiler Production

Journal of Labor Economics 1994 12(2), 155-179
Broiler chickens are raised by contract growers whose rewards depend explicitly upon relative performance. The authors use data on the performance of broiler producers facing both tournament and linear performance evaluation compensation structures to test three predictions from the theory of tournaments: that changes in the level of prizes that leave prize differentials unchanged will not affect performance; that, in mixed tournaments, more able players will choose less risky strategies; and that tournament organizers will attempt to handicap players of unequal ability or reduce mixing to avoid the disincentive effects of mixed tournaments. Their evidence is consistent with each prediction.

Mentoring in public accounting firms: An analysis of mentor-protégé relationships, mentorship functions, and protégé turnover intentions

Accounting, Organizations and Society 1994 19(8), 717-734 open access
From in-depth interviews with public accounting personnel, Dirsmith & Covaleski [Accounting, Organizations and Society (1985) pp. 149–169] concluded that mentoring exists in large public accounting firms and benefits the mentor, protégé and the firm. Based on a national survey of public accounting employees, the current study uses quantitative data analysis to identify public accounting mentoring functions, their effect on employee turnover intentions, and their association with specific organizational variables (protégé organizational level, protégé gender, mentor's position, and audit firm structure). The study found that public accounting mentoring consists of three separate functions: social support, career development, and role modeling. Path analysis indicated that employees with lower turnover intentions received more career development support from their mentor and had a partner as a mentor. The level of social support provided by partner mentors tended to be less than that provided by manager mentors. Female protégés, who tended to have managers as mentors, received more social support when their mentor was also female. The role modeling function did not differ across organizational variables. The results of the study indicate that while social support is a key factor in defining the mentoring process for public accounting employees, the career development function is associated with lower protégé turnover intentions.

Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions

Review of Financial Studies 1994 7(1), 179-213
To what extent are the empirical regularities implied by market microstructure theories useful in predicting the short-run behavior of stock returns? A two-equation econometric model of quote revisions and transaction returns is developed and used to identify the relative importance of different microstructure theories and to make predictions. Microstructure variables and lagged stock index futures returns have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power based on data observed at five-minute intervals. The most striking microstructure implication of the model, confirmed by the empirical results, specifies that the expected quote return is positively related to the deviation between the transaction price and the quote midpoint while the expected transaction return is negatively related to the same variable.

Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions

Review of Financial Studies 1994 7(1), 179-213
[To what extent are the empirical regularities implied by market microstructure theories useful in predicting the short-run behavior of stock returns? A two-equation econometric model of quote revisions and transaction returns is developed and used to identify the relative importance of different microstructure theories and to make predictions. Microstructure variables and lagged stock index futures returns have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power based on data observed at five-minute intervals. The most striking microstructure implication of the model, confirmed by the empirical results, specifies that the expected quote return is positively related to the deviation between the transaction price and the quote midpoint while the expected transaction return is negatively related to the same variable.]

Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(3), 735-754
Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker and the role of tough policies in signaling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also reflect the state of the economy. We present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemplo3nnent rate gets too high. Our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemplo3n3ient, observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods. We test this implication on EMS interest rates and find support for our hypothesis.