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Price Formation and Market Quality When the Number and Presence of Insiders Is Unknown

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(4), 1077-1109
In most models of market microstructure tractability requires that all market participants know the number (and presence) of competing insiders. I drop this assumption in experimental asset markets. Outcomes are qualitatively consistent with theoretical models when the number of insiders is disclosed prior to trade. When it is not, insiders use the timing and size of trades interactively to hide from the dealers and each other, dealers have difficulty identifying insider trades, and liquidity patterns do not differ as a function of the number of insiders. In general, insider behavior has strategic dimensions not admitted in Kyle (1985) and extensions.

Price Formation and Market Quality When the Number and Presence of Insiders Is Unknown

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(4), 1077-1109
In most models of market microstructure tractability requires that all market participants know the number (and presence) of competing insiders. I drop this assumption in experimental asset markets. Outcomes are qualitatively consistent with theoretical models when the number of insiders is disclosed prior to trade. When it is not, insiders use the timing and size of trades interactively to hide from the dealers and each other, dealers have difficulty identifying insider trades, and liquidity patterns do not differ as a function of the number of insiders. In general, insider behavior has strategic dimensions not admitted in Kyle (1985) and extensions.

Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(3), 691-721
Under the standard real options approach to investment under uncertainty, agents formulate optimal exercise strategies in isolation and ignore competitive interactions. However, in many real-world asset markets, exercise strategies cannot be determined separately, but must be formed as part of a strategic equilibrium. This article provides a tractable approach for deriving equilibrium investment strategies in a continuous-time Cournot-Nash framework. The impact of competition on exercise strategies is dramatic. For example, while standard real options models emphasize that a valuable "option to wait" leads firms to invest only at large positive net present values, the impact of competition drastically erodes the value of the option to wait and leads to investment at very near the zero net present value threshold.

Contractors as stakeholders: Reconciling stakeholder theory with the nexus-of-contracts firm

Journal of Banking & Finance 2002 26(9), 1837-1852
The contractual or nexus-of-contracts theory serves as a normative foundation for both the stockholder and stakeholder conceptions of the firm. In this theory, each constituency or stakeholder group bargains with the firm over a set of rights that will protect the firm-specific assets that it makes available for production. This paper argues that the main difference between the stockholder and stakeholder conceptions lies in different assumptions about the choice of protections that each constituency would make. The value of this thesis is that it identifies the points at issue between these two conceptions in ways that facilitate a reconciliation.

Trends in relationship lending and factors affecting relationship lending efficiency

Journal of Banking & Finance 2002 26(1), 127-152
This paper investigates the efficiency of relationship managers at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) one of Canada's largest banks. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency scores are analyzed using regression. The results demonstrate that managers are less efficient when facing larger numbers of loans or smaller loans. M. Berlin and L.J. Mester (On the profitability and cost of relationship lending, Working paper no. 97-43, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 1997) show that credit smoothing is generally suboptimal. A more complete explanation is obtained by taking a micro-level focus. Other results indicate that banks may improve profitability by reserving relationship lending for loans of larger size. Tests of relationships between efficiency and nonperforming loans and of the skimping hypothesis are conducted.

Why Don't Issuers Get Upset about Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(2), 413-443
One of the puzzles regarding initial public offerings (IPOs) is that issuers rarely get upset about leaving substantial amounts of money on the table, defined as the number of shares sold times the difference between the first-day closing market price and the offer price. The average IPO leaves $9.1 million on the table. This number is approximately twice as large as the fees paid to investment bankers and represents a substantial indirect cost to the issuing firm. We present a prospect theory model that focuses on the covariance of the money left on the table and wealth changes. Our reasoning also provides an explanation for a second puzzling pattern: much more money is left on the table following recent market rises than after market falls. This results in an explanation of hot issue markets. We also offer a new explanation for why IPOs are underpriced.

Self-Confidence and Personal Motivation

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002 117(3), 871-915
We analyze the value placed by rational agents on self-confidence, and the strategies employed in its pursuit. Confidence in one's abilities generally enhances motivation, making it a valuable asset for individuals with imperfect willpower. This demand for self-serving beliefs (which can also arise from hedonic or signaling motives) must be weighed against the risks of overconfidence. On the supply side, we develop a model of self-deception through endogenous memory that reconciles the motivated and rational features of human cognition. The resulting intrapersonal game of strategic communication typically leads to multiple equilibria. While “positive thinking” can improve welfare, it can also be self-defeating (and nonetheless pursued).