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Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Censored and Truncated Regressions via a Smoothed Self-Consistency Equation

Econometrica 2004 72(4), 1277-1293
An asymptotically efficient likelihood-based semiparametric estimator is derived for the censored regression (tobit) model, based on a new approach for estimating the density function of the residuals in a partially observed regression. Smoothing the self-consistency equation for the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the distribution of the residuals yields an integral equation, which in some cases can be solved explicitly. The resulting estimated density is smooth enough to be used in a practical implementation of the profile likelihood estimator, but is sufficiently close to the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator to allow estimation of the semiparametric efficient score. The parameter estimates obtained by solving the estimated score equations are then asymptotically efficient. A summary of analogous results for truncated regression is also given. Copyright The Econometric Society 2004.

Simple Finite Horizon Bubbles Robust to Higher Order Knowledge

Econometrica 2004 72(3), 927-936
An asymmetric information model of a finite horizon “nth order” rational asset price bubble is presented, where (all agents know that)n the asset is worthless. Also, the model has only two agents, so the first order version of the bubble is simpler than other first order bubbles in the literature.

Can Labor Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2004 119(1), 91-134
This paper investigates whether the industrial relations climate in Indian states has affected the pattern of manufacturing growth in the period 1958–1992. We show that states which amended the Industrial Disputes Act in a pro-worker direction experienced lowered output, employment, investment, and productivity in registered or formal manufacturing. In contrast, output in unregistered or informal manufacturing increased. Regulating in a pro-worker direction was also associated with increases in urban poverty. This suggests that attempts to redress the balance of power between capital and labor can end up hurting the poor.

JIT Adoption: The Effects of LIFO Reserves and Financial Reporting and Tax Incentives*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2004 21(3), 603-638 open access
Using matched samples of JIT adopters and nonadopters, we examine the association of JIT adoption with firms' financial reporting and tax incentives, earnings‐management histories, and LIFO reserve levels. We find evidence that adoption decisions are influenced by the interaction of firms' LIFO reserves with their income smoothing, debt covenant, and tax incentives. We also find that adoption is less likely for firms historically engaging in high degrees of earnings management, particularly when such firms have no substantial LIFO reserves. Our study extends earlier research demonstrating a relation between inventory valuation method and year‐end inventory transactions, and documents a relation between earnings‐management incentives and a fundamental supply‐chain design choice.

The Impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure: Trading Costs and Information Asymmetry

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2004 39(2), 209-225
In October 2000, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) passed Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) in an effort to reduce selective disclosure of material information by firms to analysts and other investment professionals. We find that the information asymmetry reflected in trading costs at earnings announcements has declined after Regulation FD, with the decrease more pronounced for smaller and less liquid stocks. Return volatility around mandatory announcements is also lower but overall information flow is unchanged when mandatory and voluntary announcements are combined. Thus, the SEC appears to have diminished the advantage of informed investors, without increasing volatility.

Trade, Growth, and the Environment

Journal of Economic Literature 2004
This essay reviews what we currently know about the environmental consequences of economic growth and international trade. Using a unified framework, we critically review both theory and empirical evidence on issues such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve, the pollution haven hypothesis, and the effects of environmental policy differences on trade and investment flows. We consider how this evidence can help us evaluate ongoing policy debates, and we discuss directions for further research.

Trade, Growth, and the Environment

Journal of Economic Literature 2004 42(1), 7-71 open access
For the last ten years environmentalists and the trade policy community have engaged in a heated debate over the environmental consequences of liberalized trade. The debate was originally fueled by negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Uruguay round of GATT negotiations, both of which occurred at a time when concerns over global warming, species extinction and industrial pollution were rising. Recently it has been intensified by the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and proposals for future rounds of trade negotiations. The debate has often been unproductive. It has been hampered by the lack of a common language and also suffered from little recourse to economic theory and empirical evidence. The purpose of this essay is set out what we currently know about the environmental consequences of economic growth and international trade. We critically review both theory and empirical work to answer three basic questions. What do we know about the relationship between international trade, economic growth and the environment? How can this evidence help us evaluate ongoing policy debates? Where do we go from here?

New lists: Fundamentals and survival rates

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 73(2), 229-269
The class of firms that obtain public equity financing expands dramatically in the 1980s and 1990s. The number of new firms listed on major U.S. stock markets jumps from 156 per year for 1973–1979 to 549 per year for 1980–2001. The characteristics of new lists also change. The cross section of profitability becomes progressively more left skewed, and growth becomes more right skewed. The result is a sharp decline in survival rates. We suggest that the changes in the characteristics of new lists are due to a decline in the cost of equity that allows weaker firms and firms with more distant expected payoffs to issue public equity.

Third Market Reforms: The Overlooked Goal of the SEC's Order Handling Rules

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2004 39(2), 277-304
In 1997, the Securities and Exchange Commission enacted significant reforms in U.S. markets. Several studies document that the new order handling rules increased competition for Nasdaq stocks, but the reforms were designed with an additional goal in mind—to increase quote competition for the trading of NYSE-listed securities on Nasdaq (i.e., third market trading). An evaluation of the reforms in the third market indicates that they did not achieve this objective. Instead, both quote quality and quoting frequency were diminished, due primarily to elimination of the excess spread rule. This suggests that more significant changes are needed to increase inter-exchange competition.