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Structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets: Contagion or mere interdependence?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 47, 331-342
This paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the United States covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011. Using intra-daily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a Heterogeneous Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model as our baseline econometric specification. Motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample, we detect time-variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers. Particularly during the financial crisis of 2007, we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion, suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross-market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities. Investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities, however, we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers. Taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account, we find no evidence of contagion anymore.

Government asset sales, economic nationalism, and acquirer wealth effects

Journal of Corporate Finance 2014 29, 351-368
We analyze acquirer wealth effects using a comprehensive sample of government asset sale announcements in 123 countries around the world in 1984–2009. Overall, we find positive abnormal returns to acquirers of state-owned assets. Returns are greater when the acquirer is domestic, when the sale occurs in a developing nation, and when the acquirer itself is not a former state-owned enterprise. Buyers of bailed-out firms experience average abnormal returns of 3.16%, compared to 0.70% for all other government sales. Our results suggest that the market favors acquirers that benefit from divesting governments driven by economic nationalism rather than sale revenue maximization.

The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: Evidence from Angel Financings

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(1), 20-55
This article documents the fact that ventures funded by two successful angel groups experience superior outcomes to rejected ventures: They have improved survival, exits, employment, patenting, Web traffic, and financing. We use strong discontinuities in angel-funding behavior over small changes in their collective interest levels to implement a regression discontinuity approach. We confirm the positive effects for venture operations, with qualitative support for a higher likelihood of successful exits. On the other hand, there is no difference in access to additional financing around the discontinuity. This might suggest that financing is not a central input of angel groups.

Index Option Returns: Still Puzzling

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(6), 1915-1928
Previous research indicates mixed conclusions on the potential mispricing of equity index put options. We examine the returns of put writing and other option strategies by comparing historical option returns with returns generated using option pricing models. We find it is generally possible to reject the hypothesis that put returns are consistent with option pricing models. An implication is that the average cost of buying out-of-the-money put options to provide tail-risk protection to a portfolio may include a significant premium. Our results are based on a sample period of 1987–2012 that includes periods of high volatility in equity returns.

The Year-End Trading Activities of Institutional Investors: Evidence from Daily Trades

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(5), 1593-1614
At year-end, some allege that institutional investors try to mislead investors by placing trades that inflate performance (portfolio pumping) or distort reported holdings (window dressing). We contribute direct tests using daily institutional trades and find that year-end price inflation derives from a lack of institutional selling rather than institutional buying. In fact, institutional buying declines at year-end. Consistent with pumping, institutions tend to buy stocks in which they already have large positions. We find no evidence of window dressing, as institutions are not more likely to buy high-past return stocks or sell low-past return stocks at year- or quarter-end.

Ambiguity Aversion and Asset Prices in Production Economies

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(10), 3060-3097 open access
We examine a production-based asset-pricing model with an unobservable mean growth rate following a two-state Markov chain and with an ambiguity-averse representative agent. Our model requires a low coefficient of relative risk aversion to produce: (i) a high equity premium and volatile equity returns, (ii) a low and smooth risk-free rate, (iii) smooth consumption growth and volatile investment growth, (iv) countercyclical equity premium and market price of risk, (v) conditional heteroscedasticity in returns, and (vi) long-horizon predictability of excess returns.

Corporate financial structure, misallocation and total factor productivity

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 39, 177-191 open access
This paper studies the quantitative relevance of the cross-sectional dispersion of corporate financial structure in explaining the intra-industry allocation efficiency of productive factors. I solve a heterogeneous firms model with financial constraints and distortions to the marginal rental-rate of capital, and develop a measure for the intra-industry misallocation of factors of production. The distribution of capital rental rate and two types of firm-level balance sheet characteristics (pledgeability and liquid asset positions) determine the extent of misallocation and industry level total factor productivity (TFP). I calibrate the model using firm-level balance sheet data from seven major industry clusters of the US economy. The counterfactual policy experiments show that weakening the observed balance sheet positions for financially constrained firms leads to a reallocation of production factors from firms with high cost distortions to firms with low cost distortions and cause quantitatively important industry level TFP losses.