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Not all clawbacks are the same: Consequences of strong versus weak clawback provisions

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2018 66(1), 291-317 open access
We develop a Clawback Strength Index and show that while some firms adopt unambiguous and strong clawback provisions, others adopt weak ones. We find that strong clawback adopters experience improvements in financial reporting quality, fewer CEO turnovers, and lower CEO pay. We advance two possible explanations: First, clawback strength may be primarily responsible for the improvements in reporting quality. Second, strong clawbacks may yield benefits because they are part of a broader reform package. While our findings on reporting quality and CEO turnover are consistent with both explanations, our results on CEO pay support only the broader reform explanation.

Estimating and Testing Dynamic Corporate Finance Models

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(1), 322-361
We assess the finite sample performance of simulation estimators that are used to estimate the parameters of dynamic corporate finance models. We formulate an external validity specification test and propose a new set of statistical benchmarks that can be used to estimate and evaluate these models. These benchmarks are based on model policy functions. Our Monte Carlo simulations show that the estimators are largely unbiased with low root mean squared errors. When computed with an optimal weight matrix, the specification tests associated with the estimators are close to correctly sized. These tests have excellent power to detect misspecification.

Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(3), 1132-1183
We develop a three-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross-section of market prices. This model closely fits the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model. We find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic-driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage-backed security prices. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs.

New evidence on managerial labor markets: An analysis of CEO retreads

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 48, 428-441
We examine career outcomes of CEOs subsequent to turnover. CEOs often resurface after turnover, but they secure positions that are inferior to their prior posts. Success in the retread market is unrelated to prior employer performance and board composition. CEOs who were particularly attached to their prior employer tend to have the poorest subsequent job prospects. These results suggest a generally efficient CEO turnover process in which firms dismiss CEOs of low ability. As CEOs acquire specific human capital over time, their outside options and bargaining power appear to diminish, offering a potential explanation for the specialist CEO compensation discount.

Offshoring and Labor Markets

Journal of Economic Literature 2018 56(3), 981-1028 open access
In this paper, we survey the recent empirical literature on the effects of offshoring on wage, employment, and displacement. We start with an overview of the measurement of offshoring, organizing our discussion around the three key elements of offshoring: that it involves intermediate inputs for production (versus final goods for consumption); that it involves imported inputs (versus domestically produced ones); and that the inputs involved could have been produced internally within the same firm. We then briefly discuss the theories of offshoring and survey the literature that examines the wage effects of offshoring: the wave of studies using industry-level data; the wave using firm-level data; the wave using worker-level data; and the wave using matched worker-firm data. For each wave, we highlight the identification strategies used, critically assess its strengths and weaknesses, discuss its connections with theory, and draw out potential policy implications of its findings. Finally, we survey the literature that examines how offshoring affects employment and displacement. We highlight the recent development of a novel cohort-based approach that is specifically designed to address selection with displacement, and capable of identifying the overall effects of offshoring, including wage, displacement, and all other types of transitions.

CFO social capital and private debt

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 52, 28-52
The cost and terms of private debt are affected by the social capital of the borrowing firm's chief financial officer (CFO), proxied by measures of social network centrality that identify the relative position of CFO in the hierarchy of executives. Firms with CFOs possessing higher social capital issue new loans with lower spreads and fewer covenant restrictions, controlling for all direct connections between borrowers and lenders. Spread reductions are stronger for opaque firms and when CFOs lack objective reputation verification. The results hold when controlling for CFO personal characteristics and firm attributes related to network centrality.

Expected Inflation and Other Determinants of Treasury Yields

Journal of Finance 2018 73(5), 2139-2180
Shocks to nominal bond yields consist of news about expected future inflation, expected future real short rates, and expected excess returns—all over the bond's life. I estimate the magnitude of the first component for short‐ and long‐maturity Treasury bonds. At a quarterly frequency, variances of news about expected inflation account for between 10% to 20% of variances of yield shocks. Standard dynamic models with long‐run risk imply variance ratios close to 1. Habit formation models fare somewhat better. The magnitudes of shocks to real rates and expected excess returns cannot be determined reliably.

The Demand for Effective Charter Schools

Journal of Political Economy 2018 126(6), 2179-2223 open access
This paper models decisions to apply to and attend charter schools in Boston using a generalized Roy selection framework linking preferences to the achievement gains generated by charter attendance. The model is estimated with instruments based on randomized admission lotteries and distance to charter schools. Charter schools generate larger gains for disadvantaged students, but demand for charters is stronger among more advantaged students. Similarly, gains are inversely related to unobserved preferences for charters. As a result, counterfactual simulations indicate that charter expansion is likely to be most effective when accompanied by efforts to target students who are unlikely to apply.