Recent work in game theory has shown that, in principle, it may be possible for firms in an industry to form a self-policing cartel to maximize their joint profits. This paper examines the nature of cartel self-enforcement in the presence of demand uncertainty. A model of a noncooperatively supported cartel is presented, and the aspects of industry structure which would make such a cartel viable are discussed.

This paper documents exploratory drilling activity on offshore wildcat oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico sold between 1954 and 1980. The authors calculate the empirical drilling hazard function for cohorts in specific areas. For each year of the lease, they study the determinants of the decision whether to begin exploratory drilling and their relationship to the outcome of any drilling activity. Their results indicate that equilibrium predictions of plausible noncooperative models are reasonably accurate and more descriptive than those of cooperative models of drilling timing. The authors discuss why noncooperative behavior may occur and the potential gains from coordination. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.

This paper examines federal auctions for drain age leases on the Outer Continental Shelf from 1959 to 1969. These are leases that are adjacent to tracts on which a deposit has been discovered. The authors find that the data strongly support the hypotheses that neighbor firms are better informed about the value of a lease than nonneighbor firms; that neighbor firms coordinate their bidding decisions; and that both types of firms bid strategically in accordance with the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium model for first-price, sealed-bid auctions with asymmetric information.

The paper analyzes a first price, sealed bid auction with a random reservation price where the object has an unknown common value, but one buyer has better information than the others. We permit the reservation price to be correlated with the information of the informed buyer, which reflects both his assessment of the value of the object and probability of rejection at any bid. Assuming all random variables are affiliated, we establish the following results. (1) The rate of increase in the distribution of the uninformed bidder is never greater than the rate of increase in the distribution of the informed bid. (2) The distributions are identical at bids above the support of the reservation price. (3) The informed buyer is more likely to submit low bids. We demonstrate that these restrictions are satisfied by bid data from the federal sales of offshore drainage leases.

This paper examines bidding in auctions for state highway construction contracts, in order to determine whether bid rigging occurred. Detection of collusion is possible because of limited participation in the collusive scheme. Collusion did not take the form of a bid rotation scheme. Instead, several ring members bid on most jobs. One was a serious bidder, and the other submitted phony higher bids. The bids of noncartel firms, as well as their rank distribution, were related to cost measures. In contrast, the rank distribution of higher cartel bids was unrelated to similar cost measures and differed from that of the low cartel bid. Copyright 1993 by University of Chicago Press.

A study is presented on whether the US Government can increase its revenues from the sale of drainage leases by using a different allocation mechanism. The optimal mechanism is characterized for selling a lease when there is a single informed buyer and a fixed number of uniformed buyers. Implementation and the magnitude of potential revenue gains, if any, are discussed.

This paper studies federal auctions for wildcat leases on the Outer Continental Shelf from 1954 to 1970. These are leases where bidders privately acquire (at some cost) noisy, but equally informative, signals about the amount of oil and gas that may be present. We develop tests of rational and equilibrium bidding in a common values model that are implemented using data on bids and ex post values. We also use data on tract location and ex post values to test the comparative static prediction that bidders may bid less aggressively in common value auctions when they expect more competition. We find that bidders are aware of the “winner's curse” and their bidding is largely consistent with equilibrium.

Using a panel data set for the forty-eight contiguous states from 1970 to 1983, several estimates are provided of a Cobb-Douglas production function with three types of public capital as inputs. Various specification tests are systematically applied to test for both random and fixed state effects, nonstationarity, endogeneity of the private inputs, and measurement error. In the preferred specification, which is first differences with fixed state effects, the public capital variables are not significant, while the fixed state effects and private input variables are significant. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.