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Bargaining With Asymmetric Information: An Empirical Study of Plea Negotiations

Econometrica 2017 85(2), 419-452 open access
This paper empirically investigates how sentences to be assigned at trial impact plea bargaining. The analysis is based on the model of bargaining with asymmetric information by Bebchuk, 1984. I provide conditions for the nonparametric identification of the model, propose a consistent nonparametric estimator, and implement it using data on criminal cases from North Carolina. Employing the estimated model, I evaluate how different sentencing reforms affect the outcome of criminal cases. My results indicate that lower mandatory minimum sentences could greatly reduce the total amount of incarceration time assigned by the courts, but may increase conviction rates. In contrast, the broader use of non‐incarceration sentences for less serious crimes reduces the number of incarceration convictions, but has a very small effect over the total assigned incarceration time. I also consider the effects of a ban on plea bargains. Depending on the case characteristics, over 20 percent of the defendants who currently receive incarceration sentences would be acquitted if plea bargains were forbidden.

Is there a gender effect on the cost of bank financing?

Journal of Financial Stability 2017 31, 136-153 open access
In this paper, we address the question of whether the gender of a firm’s leader affects the cost of bank funding faced by small and medium enterprises in Europe. Using a large sample of observations of non-financial firms, during the years 2009–2013, we empirically test for the presence of discrimination, comparing female-led and male-led firms. After controlling for a rich set of variables and addressing potential endogeneity, our results show that i) female-led enterprises are more likely to face worse price conditions for bank financing compared to their male-led counterparts and, ii) firms whose leadership changes from female to male are more likely to benefit from an improvement in interest rate levels. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and various methodological approaches. The existence of such bias in the credit markets highlights the need of policy measures addressing female-led businesses, thus reducing their bank financing burdens and enhancing their entrepreneurial opportunities.

When does the peer information environment matter?

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2017 64(2-3), 183-214 open access
This paper examines whether and when the information environment of peer firms in an industry affects the cost of capital for other firms in the industry. We predict and find that the peer information environment is negatively associated with a firm's cost of capital when there is less publicly available firm-specific information and this negative association shrinks as the amount of firm-specific information increases. This paper provides evidence that information about peer-firms has externalities on the cost of capital for related firms and that these externalities are time-varying.

Intellectual property rights and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 45, 360-377
We investigate the role of intellectual property rights protection in cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. We document a significant increase in inbound cross-border M&As after a country implements reforms that strengthen local intellectual property rights. Importantly, we find that intellectual property rights have an impact on merger activity only in industries that are more intellectual capital-intensive, and when the target country has weaker intellectual property rights protection than the acquirer country. We also find that synergy gains in cross-border M&As are positively related to reforms of intellectual property rights. These results are consistent with the notion that acquirers are concerned about the local protection of intellectual capital when considering foreign acquisitions, and care the most when the target firm is in an industry that uses intellectual property intensely and in a country that has lesser-developed protections that their own country does.

The Information Value of Stock Lending Fees: Are Lenders Price Takers?

Review of Finance 2017 21(6), 2353-2377
We find that higher stock lending fees predict significantly lower future returns after controlling for shorting demand for US stocks during the period 2007–10. These results suggest that active institutional investors on the supply side play an important role in the return predictability of fees and they not only respond to demand but also price in additional information around earnings news announcements. Overall, we find evidence that stock lenders are informed and, together with short sellers, contribute to the price discovery process.

Performance share plans: Valuation and empirical tests

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 44, 99-125
Performance share plans are an increasingly important component of executive compensation. They are equity-based, long-term incentive plans where the number of shares to be awarded is a quasi-linear function of a performance result over a fixed time period. We derive closed-form formulas for the value of a performance share plan when the performance measure is: (1) a non-traded measure following an Arithmetic Brownian Motion (e.g., earnings per share), (2) a non-traded measure following a Geometric Brownian Motion (e.g., revenue), or (3) a rank-order tournament of traded asset returns that are following Arithmetic Brownian Motions (e.g., percentile of ranked stock returns). Then we empirically test our valuation formulas. We find that our valuation formulas are more accurate for performance share plans based on earnings per share when forecasting using analyst consensus prior to the grant date. We also find that the efficiency of our valuation model greatly depends on the method used to forecast future firm performance. The policy implication is that FASB should consider requiring that grant date fair value be estimated using valuation formulas such as ours.

Insurer Competition in Health Care Markets

Econometrica 2017 85(2), 379-417
The impact of insurer competition on welfare, negotiated provider prices, and premiums in the U.S. private health care industry is theoretically ambiguous. Reduced competition may increase the premiums charged by insurers and their payments made to hospitals. However, it may also strengthen insurers' bargaining leverage when negotiating with hospitals, thereby generating offsetting cost decreases. To understand and measure this trade-off, we estimate a model of employer-insurer and hospital-insurer bargaining over premiums and reimbursements, household demand for insurance, and individual demand for hospitals using detailed California admissions, claims, and enrollment data. We simulate the removal of both large and small insurers from consumers' choice sets. Although consumer welfare decreases and premiums typically increase, we find that premiums can fall upon the removal of a small insurer if an employer imposes effective premium constraints through negotiations with the remaining insurers. We also document substantial heterogeneity in hospital price adjustments upon the removal of an insurer, with renegotiated price increases and decreases of as much as 10% across markets.