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Timeliness of financial reporting, the firm size effect, and stock price reactions to annual earnings announcements*
Abstract. Disclosure timeliness is of concern because a report's usefulness may be inversely related to the reporting delay. Although longer delays increase the likelihood that some of the information contained in annual earnings disclosures will be preempted by information from more timely sources, previous research investigating the relation between earnings‐disclosure timeliness and the intensity of the associated market reaction has reported mixed results. These inconclusive findings may be at least partially due to the effects of a potentially confounding variable — firm size — which may have offset the reporting delay effect. Large firms usually disclose earnings relatively early, but the associated market reaction tends to be small due to the size effect. Small firms disclose later, but their associated market reaction tends to be high due to the size effect. Consequently, this study employs a multivariate approach, which controls for firm size, in investigating the relationship between the timeliness of annual earnings disclosure and the associated security price reaction. The study's results support the hypothesis that after controlling for firm size, the length of the reporting delay is inversely related to the magnitude of report period price revaluations. That is, longer delays are associated with smaller market reactions, when firm size is held constant. There is some evidence that this relation may be stronger for earnings announcements which convey “bad news.” Résumé. La publication rapide de l'information est un sujet de préoccupation, puisque l'utilité d'un rapport risque d'être inversement proportionnelle au délai de publication. Bien que des délais plus longs augmentent la probabilité que certaines des informations contenues dans la publication annuelle des bénéfices aient déjà été obtenues de sources plus rapides, de précédents travaux de recherche analysant la relation entre la rapidité de la publication des bénéfices et l'intensité de la réaction du marché à l'information publiée ont abouti à des résultats mixtes. Ces résultats non concluants peuvent être au moins en partie attribuables à l'incidence d'une variable pouvant porter à confusion — celle de la taille de l'entreprise — susceptible d'avoir compensé l'incidence du délai de publication. Les entreprises de taille importante publient habituellement leurs bénéfices assez tôt, mais la réaction du marché à cette information tend à être mitigée, à cause de l'incidence de la taille. Les petites entreprises publient plus tard l'infonnation relative aux bénéfices, mais la réaction du marché à cette information a tendance à être marquée, à cause de l'incidence de la taille. En conséquence, les auteurs ont opté dans la présente étude pour une méthode à plusieurs variables permettant de contrôler la taille de l'entreprise dans l'analyse de la relation entre la rapidité de la publication des bénéfices annuels et la réaction du prix de Taction à cette information. Les résultats de l'étude viennent confirmer l'hypothèse selon laquelle, lorsque la taille de l'entreprise n'influe pas, la longueur du délai de publication est en relation inverse avec l'ampleur des réévaluations de prix correspondant à la période de publication. En d'autres termes, des délais plus longs sont associés aux réactions plus mitigées du marché, la taille de l'entreprise étant constante. Certaines informations démontrent que cette relation peut être plus marquée pour la publication de bénéfices qui véhiculent de « mauvaises nouvelles ».
Do Investors Respond to Analysts' Forecast Revisions as if Forecast Accuracy Is All That Matters?
Prior research suggests that investors' response to analyst forecast revisions increases with the analyst's forecast accuracy. We extend this research by examining whether investors appear to extract all of the information that analyst characteristics provide about forecast accuracy. We find that only some of the analyst characteristics that are associated with future forecast accuracy are also associated with return responses to forecast revisions. This suggests that investors fail to extract some of the information that analyst characteristics can provide about future forecast accuracy. In addition, forecast properties other than expected accuracy appear to be value-relevant. For example, investors respond more strongly to forecasts released earlier in the year and to forecasts by analysts employed by large brokerages than appears warranted by the ability of forecast timeliness and broker size to predict forecast accuracy. We conclude that investors respond to analysts' forecast revisions as if forecast accuracy is not all that matters.
Operational Restructuring Charges and Post‐Restructuring Performance*
Abstract Firms incur restructuring charges as a result of actions intended to improve their operating performance. However, there is little evidence on whether restructuring charges are associated with improved performance. We examine a sample of firms reporting restructuring in 1991‐93 and find that the restructuring firms' earnings increase over the levels immediately before restructuring. Compared with a control sample of firms that report no restructuring, the restructuring firms improve their earnings and operating income, but evidence for improvements in cash flow from operations is mixed. In regression analysis, we find that restructuring charges are significantly positively associated with post‐restructuring changes in earnings relative to the restructuring year, but this association is largely driven by firms with multiple restructurings and firms reporting losses in the restructuring year. We find no association between restructuring charges and post‐restructuring changes in earnings relative to the year before restructuring. Restructuring charges are significantly positively associated with post‐restructuring changes in operating income and cash flow from operations for firms with multiple restructurings. In summary, restructuring charges are associated with improved earnings, but our results suggest that restructuring in the early 1990s did not necessarily guarantee improved operating performance.
Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting
ABSTRACT This study classifies analysts' earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that (1) boldness likelihood increases with the analyst's prior accuracy, brokerage size, and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows, consistent with theory linking boldness with career concerns and ability; (2) bold forecasts are more accurate than herding forecasts; and (3) herding forecast revisions are more strongly associated with analysts' earnings forecast errors (actual earnings—forecast) than are bold forecast revisions. Thus, bold forecasts incorporate analysts' private information more completely and provide more relevant information to investors than herding forecasts.
Analyst information production and the timing of annual earnings forecasts
Stealth Disclosure of Accounting Restatements
ABSTRACT: Managers exercise considerable discretion over how they announce an accounting restatement in a press release. Some firms issue a press release that discloses the restatement in the headline (high prominence). Others provide a press release with a headline on a different subject (for example, earnings news) but describe the restatement in the body of the release (medium prominence). The remaining firms discuss the restatement at the end of the press release in a footnote to operating results (low prominence). Mean three-day returns differ considerably across these three categories of prominence (−8.3, −4.0, and −1.5 percent, respectively). We find that disclosure prominence is significantly negatively associated with returns in a model that controls for the seriousness of the GAAP violation, restatement magnitude, other restatement characteristics, and potential endogeneity. Similarly, we find the likelihood of class action lawsuits is significantly reduced with less prominent disclosure.