To make high-quality research more accessible and easier to explore.

Fields:

Perks and the informativeness of stock prices in the Chinese market

Journal of Corporate Finance 2011 17(5), 1410-1429 open access
While the literature shows that perks can affect firm values positively or negatively, we argue that firms with higher perks are more likely to be associated with a lower quality of financial reporting, which, in turn, can affect the informativeness of stock prices. Based on hand-collected data on perks from Chinese listed firms, we find that firms with lower perks are associated with higher informativeness of stock prices (or lower R-square). Moreover, the positive association between perks and R-square is shown to be weaker for firms with higher financial reporting quality through audit and earnings quality measures.

Using Loopholes to Reveal the Marginal Cost of Regulation: The Case of Fuel-Economy Standards

American Economic Review 2011 101(4), 1375-1409
Estimating the cost of regulation is difficult. Firms sometimes reveal costs indirectly, however, when they exploit loopholes to avoid regulation. We apply this insight to fuel economy standards for automobiles. These standards feature a loophole that gives automakers a bonus when they equip a vehicle with flexible-fuel capacity. Profit-maximizing automakers will equate the marginal cost of compliance using the loophole, which is observable, with the unobservable costs of strategies that genuinely improve fuel economy. Based on this insight, we estimate that tightening standards by one mile per gallon would have cost automakers just 9–27 per vehicle in recent years.

Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys

American Economic Review 2011 101(3), 110-114
This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

Consistency in meeting or beating earnings expectations and management earnings forecasts

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2011 51(1-2), 37-57
This paper provides evidence that firms that have consistently met or beaten analysts’ earnings expectations (MBE) provide more frequent “bad news” management forecasts than firms with no established string of MBE, particularly when existing analyst forecasts are optimistic. This suggests that firms with a consistent MBE record are more likely to guide analysts’ expectations downward to avoid breaking the consistency. Subsequent analyst forecast revisions following bad news management forecasts issued by these firms are dampened, implying that analysts suspect that these forecasts may be opportunistic. The relation between management forecasts and MBE consistency is stronger after Regulation FD.

Lending Relationships and Loan Contract Terms

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(4), 1141-1203
[We find that repeated borrowing from the same lender translates into a 10—17 bps lowering of loan spreads and that relationships are especially valuable when borrower transparency is low. These results hold using multiple approaches (propensity score matching, instrumental variables, and treatment effects model) that control for the endogeneity of relationships. We also provide a demarcation line between relationship and transactional lending. Spreads charged for relationship loans and nonrelationship loans are statistically identical if the borrower is in the largest 30% by asset size; has public rated debt; or is part of the S&P 500 index. Past relationships reduce collateral requirements and are also associated with obtaining larger loans. Our results imply that, even for firms that have multiple sources of outside financing, borrowing from a prior lender obtains better loan terms.]

What Segments Equity Markets?

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(12), 3841-3890
[We propose a new, valuation-based measure of world equity market segmentation. While we observe decreased levels of segmentation in many countries, the level of segmentation remains significant in emerging markets. We characterize the factors that account for variation in market segmentation both through time as well as across countries. Both a country's regulation with respect to foreign capital flows and certain nonregulatory factors are important. In particular, we identify a country's political risk profile and its stock market development as two additional local segmentation factors as well as the U.S. corporate credit spread as a global segmentation factor.]

Does Mestizaje Matter in the US? Economic Stratification of Mexican Immigrants

American Economic Review 2011 101(3), 593-597
Using data from the 2003 New Immigrant Survey, this paper examines whether stratification as reflected by skin shade exists among newly legalized Mexican immigrants in the US. While we do not find evidence that skin color directly related to employment probabilities, complexion appeared to play a role in the likelihood of owning a home, having a bank account, and occupational status. As these outcomes partly reflect immigrants' pre-migration experiences, our findings suggest that the social stratification structure in Mexico might be sustained in the US among Mexican-origin populations.

Do Consumer Price Subsidies Really Improve Nutrition?

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2011 93(4), 1205-1223
Many developing countries use food-price subsidies or controls to improve nutrition. However, subsidizing goods on which households spend a high proportion of their budget can create large wealth effects. Consumers may then substitute towards foods with higher non-nutritional attributes (e.g., taste), but lower nutritional content per unit of currency, weakening or perhaps even reversing the subsidy's intended impact. We analyze data from a randomized program of large price subsidies for poor households in two provinces of China and find no evidence that the subsidies improved nutrition. In fact, it may have had a negative impact for some households.