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Sustainable Plans

Journal of Political Economy 1990 98(4), 783-802
The authors propose a definition of time-consistent policy for infinite-horizon economies with competitive private agents. Allocations and policies are defined as functions of the history of past policies. A sustainable equilibrium is a sequence of history-contingent policies and allocations that satisfy certain sequential optimality conditions for the government and for private agents. The authors provide a complete characterization of the sustainable equilibrium outcomes for a variant of Stanley Fischer's model of capital taxation. They also relate their work to recent developments in the theory of repeated games.

Default Risk in Futures Markets: The Customer‐Broker Relationship

Journal of Finance 1990 45(3), 909-933
The traditional view of the futures clearinghouse as an insurer that eliminates the need for customers to evaluate default risk is inaccurate. A clearinghouse member default in 1985 confirms that the clearinghouse only guarantees payment from member to member, not from customer to customer or member to customer. Thus, non‐defaulting customers are subject to losses as a result of the action of individuals with whom thay have no contractual obligations. This study models the behavior of customers choosing a futures commission merchant (FCM) given the current legal position of the clearinghouse. In a single‐period model with symmetric information, customers can eliminate their exposure to defaults of other customers or of their FCM only by choosing to trade through “boutique” (undiversified) FCMs. In practice, monitoring and rebalancing costs may impede the attainment of zero default risk. However, FCM diversification remains an important factor in customer choice of an FCM. When setting capital requirements, clearinghouses and government regulators need to consider the implications of diversification for both customer and market protection.

Shareholder Preferences and Dividend Policy.

Journal of Finance 1990 45(4), 993-1018
This paper develops a theory of choice among alternative procedures for distributing cash from corporations to shareholders. Despite the preferential tax treatment of capital gains for individual investors, it is shown that a majority of a firm's shareholders may support a dividend payment for small distributions. For larger distributions, an open-market stock repurchase is likely to be preferred by a majority of shareholders and, for the largest distributions, tender offer repurchases dominate.

The Rational Nonpurchase of Long-Term-Care Insurance

Journal of Political Economy 1990 98(1), 153-168
Only a tiny fraction of the nonpoor population currently purchases private insurance coverage against long-term-care (LTC) costs. Studies generally attribute the failure to purchase private coverage to "unawareness" by potential purchasers of the benefits of coverage and a misperception that Medicare currently covers long-term care. I explore alternative reasons for failure to purchase coverage by well-informed, expected utility-maximizing risk-averse individuals for whom LTC is associated with a large increase in mortality and for whom family members represent an alternative source of care. There may be no demand for LTC insurance even if it is made available at actuarially fair premiums because the main consequence of coverage is to enhance the expected value of one's estate.

Ex Post Liability for Harm vs. Ex Ante Safety Regulation: Substitutes or Complements?

American Economic Review 1990 80(4), 888-901
This paper concerns the regulation of hazardous economic activities. Economists have generally viewed ex ante regulations (safety standards, Pigouvian fees) that regulate an activity before an accident occurs as substitutes for ex post policies (exposure to tort liability) for correcting externalities. This paper shows that where there is uncertainty, there are inefficiencies associated with the exclusive use of negligence liability and that ex ante regulation can correct the inefficiencies. In such a case it is efficient to set the safety standard below the level of precaution that would be called for if the standard were used alone.