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Accounting method choice

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1990 12(1-3), 207-218
Three alternative, but not mutually exclusive, perspectives on accounting method choice are contrasted: the opportunistic behavior, efficient contracting, and information perspectives. Much of the empirical work on accounting method choice is based on the opportunistic behavior perspective. The Malmquist and Main and Smith papers are attempts to view accounting method choice as a means of improving the monitoring capabilities of contracts which rely on accounting numbers. The papers serve as useful vehicles for illustrating the difficulties of delineating a set of maintained assumptions that result in hypotheses about how accounting method choice affects the monitoring characteristics of contracts, and distinguishing between hypotheses based on the three perspectives on accounting method choice.

Market accessibility, bond ETFs, and liquidity

Review of Finance 2024 28(5), 1725-1758
Abstract We develop a stylized model that generates the following empirical predictions: the less (more) accessible the underlying market is ex ante, the more its liquidity improves (deteriorates) when basket trading becomes available. We empirically test these predictions using corporate bonds before and after the introduction of exchange-traded funds. Consistent with the model’s prediction, liquidity improvement is larger for highly arbitraged, low-volume, and high-yield bonds, and for 144A bonds to which retail investor access is prohibited by law. Our article leads to a more nuanced understanding of the impact of basket security introduction than previous research suggested.

Do Investors Suffer from Money Illusion? A Direct Test of the Modigliani–Cohn Hypothesis

Review of Finance 2013 17(2), 565-596
Abstract We propose a direct test of the explanation by Modigliani and Cohn (MC) for the positive correlation between inflation and equity values—that it results from investors’ money illusion. This explanation, unlike its main rivals, suggests that because in inflationary periods dividends will, on average, be higher than expected, dividend announcements will trigger positive abnormal returns. These will be higher the higher the inflation, and the more levered the firm. The behavior of abnormal returns of US stocks on dividend-announcement days from 1955 to 2007 supports these predictions. We investigate alternative explanations of our results. None dominates MC’s.

When It Cannot Get Better or Worse: The Asymmetric Impact of Good and Bad News on Bond Returns in Expansions and Recessions

Review of Finance 2010 14(1), 119-155 open access
Abstract We examine empirically the response of bond returns and their volatility to good and bad macroeconomic news during expansions and recessions. We find that macroeconomic announcements are most important when they contain bad news for bond returns in expansions and, to a lesser extent, good news in contractions. In expansions, the bond market responds most strongly to bad news in non-farm payrolls, while in recessions good news about inflation is relatively more important. We also document that macroeconomic news impacts the volatility of bond returns at all maturities by increasing jump intensities and altering the jump size distribution.

Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets

Review of Finance 2009 13(1), 1-45 open access
Abstract We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied volatilities of stock and bond options when the economic data is released. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater reduction in implied volatilities following the news release. It is also associated with increased volume and decreased open interest in option markets after the release, consistent with market participants using financial options to hedge or speculate on macroeconomic news.

Risk and Return Trade-Offs in Lifetime Earnings

Journal of Labor Economics 2018 36(4), 981-1021
This paper documents differences in lifetime earnings risk across occupations due to wage risk, employment risk, and midcareer occupation changes, which can mitigate other shocks. Total lifetime earnings risk varies considerably across starting occupation, and riskier occupations pay more in expectation. The average worker would give up at least 9% of total lifetime earnings in the least certain occupation to reduce the riskiness of that occupation to the level of the safest starting occupation. The insurance value of occupational mobility is quantitatively important. With mobility, workers absorb only 60%, on average, of negative occupation-specific wage shocks.

Testing for Educational Credit Constraints Using Heterogeneity in Individual Time Preferences

Journal of Labor Economics 2016 34(2), 363-402
I develop a model in which individual time discount rates have a larger effect on human capital accumulation when credit constraints are binding. Impatient individuals obtain less schooling when borrowing constraints limit the ability to finance consumption during school. Using data from the NLSY79, I show that self-reported measures of time preferences have a significantly higher effect on the college attendance decisions of blacks than those of whites and the decisions of low-income youths than those of high-income youths. These results provide new evidence that members of disadvantaged groups obtain lower levels of schooling because they are credit constrained.

The Impact of Human Capital Investments on Pension Benefits

Journal of Labor Economics 1996 14(3), 520-554
This article develops a model, with deferred compensation and severance pay, that predicts that workers bear all the costs and receive all the returns of human capital investments and that specific investments yield higher returns than general investments. This model also predicts that pensions, which efficiently defer compensation, will be positively related to specific investments. Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men confirms these predictions; participation in company-sponsored training programs, proxying for specific investments, increases the probability of pension receipt and the level of benefits. More general training outside the firm has much smaller effects on pensions.

The Measurement of Labor Force Dynamics with Longitudinal Data: The Labour Market Activity Survey Filter

Journal of Labor Economics 1995 13(2), 351-385
This article explores the measurement of labor force dynamics using longitudinal data, focusing in particular on the Canadian Labour Market Activity Survey (LMAS), which represents a potential advance in longitudinal data collection because it measures aspects of dynamics not available in existing panel data such as the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Longitudinal Survey. We examine the implications of the LMAS questionnaire structure-the LMAS filter-for the study of labor market dynamics and undertake simulations to provide a quantitative assessment of the importance of this filter for labor force spells and transitions between labor force states.