This paper examines portfolio allocation across equity portfolios formed on the basis of characteristics like size and book-to-market. In particular, the paper assesses the impact of return predictability on portfolio choice for a multi-period investor with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 4. Compared to the investor's allocation in her last period, return predictability with dividend yield causes the investor early in life to tilt her risky-asset portfolio away from high book-to-market stocks and away from small stocks. These results are explained using Merton's (Econometrica 41 (1973) 867) characterization of portfolio allocation by a multi-period investor in a continuous time setting. Abnormal returns relative to the investor's optimal early life portfolio are also calculated. These abnormal returns are found to exhibit the same cross-sectional patterns as abnormal returns calculated relative to the market portfolio: higher for small rather than large firms, and higher for high rather than low book-to-market firms. Thus, hedging demand may be a partial explanation for the high expected returns documented for small firms and high book-to-market firms. However, even with this hedging demand, the investor wants to sell short the low book-to market portfolio to hold the high book-to-market portfolio. The utility costs of using a value-weighted equity index or of ignoring predictability are also calculated. An investor using a value-weighted equity index would give up a much larger fraction of her wealth to have access to book-to-market portfolio than size portfolios. Finally, an investor would give up a much larger fraction of her wealth to have access to dividend yield information than term spread information.

In this article we ask: what kind of information and how much of it should firms voluntarily disclose? Three types of disclosures are considered. One is information that complements the information available only to informed investors (to-be-processed complementary information). The second is information that is orthogonal to that which any investor can acquire and thus complements the information available to all investors (preprocessed complementary information). And the third is information that substitutes for the information of the informed investors in that it reveals to all what was previously known only by the informed (substitute information). Our main results are as follows. First, in equilibrium, all types of firms voluntarily disclose all three types of information. Second, in contrast to the existing literature, complementary information disclosure by firms strengthens investors' private incentives to acquire information. Substitute information disclosure weakens private information acquisition incentives. Third, while complementary information disclosure has an ambiguous effect on financial innovation incentives, substitute information disclosure weakens those incentives.

Abstract This paper reports the results of an experiment that investigates how external audit planning is affected when internal auditors have incentives and the opportunity to bias their evaluations. Specifically, we draw on attribution theory to examine how internal auditor eligibility for incentive compensation and participation in consulting (i.e., two factors that provide incentives to bias audit evaluations) affect external audit planning. In addition, we examine the effects of incentive compensation and a consulting role across two routine internal audit tasks — an objective tests of controls task and a subjective inventory valuation task — to evaluate whether their effects are contingent upon task subjectivity (i.e., opportunity to bias audit evaluations). Seventy‐six external auditors from four Big 5 public accounting firms participated in an experiment that manipulated internal auditor compensation (fixed salary versus incentive compensation), the type of work that the internal auditors routinely perform (primarily auditing versus primarily consulting), and audit task subjectivity (objective tests of controls versus subjective inventory valuation). Our results suggest that the nature of internal auditors' compensation and work affect audit planning recommendations differently. The opportunity to receive incentive compensation results in less reliance on internal auditors' work and greater budgeted audit hours, but only for the subjective task. Although a consulting role decreases perceived internal auditor objectivity, it has a limited effect on planning recommendations. Specifically, consulting has no effect on reliance, and leads to greater budgeted audit hours only when incentive compensation is available. We discuss potential explanations for the results as well as implications for audit research, practice, and regulation.

This paper reports the results of an experiment that investigates how external audit planning is affected when internal auditors have incentives and the opportunity to bias their evaluations. Specifically, we draw on attribution theory to examine how internal auditor eligibility for incentive compensation and participation in consulting (i.e., two factors that provide incentives to bias audit evaluations) affect external audit planning. In addition, we examine the effects of incentive compensation and a consulting role across two routine internal audit tasks — an objective tests of controls task and a subjective inventory valuation task — to evaluate whether their effects are contingent upon task subjectivity (i.e., opportunity to bias audit evaluations). Seventy-six external auditors from four Big 5 public accounting firms participated in an experiment that manipulated internal auditor compensation (fixed salary versus incentive compensation), the type of work that the internal auditors routinely perform (primarily auditing versus primarily consulting), and audit task subjectivity (objective tests of controls versus subjective inventory valuation). Our results suggest that the nature of internal auditors' compensation and work affect audit planning recommendations differently. The opportunity to receive incentive compensation results in less reliance on internal auditors' work and greater budgeted audit hours, but only for the subjective task. Although a consulting role decreases perceived internal auditor objectivity, it has a limited effect on planning recommendations. Specifically, consulting has no effect on reliance, and leads to greater budgeted audit hours only when incentive compensation is available. We discuss potential explanations for the results as well as implications for audit research, practice, and regulation.

This paper provides an analysis of aggregate behavioural outcomes when individual utility exhibits social interaction effects. We study generalized logistic models of individual choice which incorporate terms reflecting the desire of individuals to conform to the behaviour of others in an environment of noncooperative decisionmaking. Laws of large numbers are generated in such environments. Multiplicity of equilibria in these models, which are equivalent to the existence of multiple self-consistent means for average choice behaviour, will exist when the social interactions exceed a particular threshold. Local stability of these multiple equilibria is also studied. The properties of the noncooperative economy are contrasted with the properties of an economy in which a social planner determines the set of individual choices. Finally, a likelihood function based on the theoretical model is given and conditions for the econometric identifiability of the model are established.

This paper revisits the uncovered interest parity relation. It supplements existing work in two ways: It focuses on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, employs exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead of actual outcomes. Among the major floating currencies over the period 1975–1997, the paper cannot support the notion of further increases in UIP-validation beyond that associated with the wave of financial market liberalization and deregulation in the early 1980s.

The publicly traded Boston Celtics Limited Partnership shares provide a unique means of studying the impact of information on equity prices. The results of the Celtics’ basketball games significantly affect partnership share returns, trading volume, and volatility. Controlling for the expectedvalue of the signal using betting-market point spreads has little effect on these relations. Investors respond asymmetrically to wins and losses, and playoff games have a larger impact on returns than regular-season games. Opening prices do not fully reflect game results, consistent with previous findings that significant volatility is caused by traders acting on private information.

Abstract In this paper we seek to document errors that could affect studies of earnings management. The book income adjustment (BIA) of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) created apparently strong incentives to manage book income downward in 1987. Five earlier papers using different methodologies and samples all conclude that earnings were reduced in response to the BIA. This consensus of findings offers an opportunity to investigate our speculation that methodological biases are more likely when there appear to be clear incentives for earnings management. A reexamination of these studies uncovers potential biases related to a variety of factors, including choices of scaling variables, selection of affected and control samples, and measurement error in estimated discretionary accruals. A reexamination of the argument underlying these studies also suggests that the incentives to manage earnings are less powerful than initially predicted, and are partially mitigated by tax and non‐tax factors. As a result, we believe that the extent of earnings management that occurred in 1987 in response to the BIA remains an unresolved issue.

We show analytically that mean analyst forecasts inefficiently aggregate information by assigning too much weight to analysts’ common information relative to their private information when used as a summary forecast measure of forthcoming earnings. A more precise summary forecast of earnings than the current mean forecast is the current mean forecast plus a positive multiple of the change in the mean forecast.