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Competition for Andersen's Clients*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2008 25(4), 1099-1136
We examine competition for Andersen’s public clients during and after its failure in 2002. This setting provides a natural experiment to examine audit market dynamics at the local level. We construct a database documenting Big4 purchases of local Andersen offices. After exploring the factors associated with office purchases, we examine the impact of office purchases on public client market share gains and changes in audit fees. We find that three Big4 firms – Deloitte, Ernst & Young, and KPMG – purchased approximately 60% of Andersen’s offices while PricewaterhouseCoopers did not purchase any. The probability that a firm purchased a specific office is greater in markets where the acquiring firm: 1) already had a presence, 2) had a lower ratio of local Andersen clients to the purchaser’s clients, and 3) had already acquired relatively more local former Andersen public clients than other firms prior to the purchase. Our fee analysis expands the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) post-Andersen audit market study by documenting that the former Andersen clients’ change in audit fees is associated with the differences in client acquisition method.

Determinants and Consequences of Firm Information Technology Budgets

The Accounting Review 2008 83(4), 957-995
ABSTRACT: For most firms, the information technology (IT) budget represents a major element in the overall firm budget, and IT budget decisions often have significant operational and strategic impacts on the business processes in the firm’s value chain. In this paper we use a large unique data set to examine the extent to which IT budgets are affected by environmental, organizational, and technological circumstances. We find that our cross-sectional model explains substantial variance in IT budgets, which indicates that contingent environmental, organizational, and technological factors affect managers’ budget decisions. We then examine the extent to which these IT budget levels are related to future firm performance, measured using both broad financial accounting measures, such as operating profit margins and return on assets, and market returns. We find that IT budget levels are positively associated with subsequent firm performance and shareholder returns. We further suggest that IT’s aggregate effect on performance is a weighted average of two very different components: (1) context-driven IT budget levels, which reflect the effects of environmental, organization, and technological factors and the IT budgets resulting from them, and (2) idiosyncratic IT budget levels, which reflect the effect of any marginal firm-specific IT budget expenditures after controlling for these contextual factors. Both components are positively associated with performance, indicating that the specified contextual factors provide an incomplete explanation of firms’ value-relevant IT expenditures. The current study contributes to the accounting information systems and management accounting literatures by assessing the causes and consequences of IT budgets.

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

Econometrica 2008 76(1), 155-174 open access
The conventional heteroskedasticity-robust (HR) variance matrix estimator for cross-sectional regression (with or without a degrees-of-freedom adjustment), applied to the fixed-effects estimator for panel data with serially uncorrelated errors, is inconsistent if the number of time periods T is fixed (and greater than 2) as the number of entities n increases. We provide a bias-adjusted HR estimator that is √nT-consistent under any sequences (n T ) in which n and/or T increase to ∞. This estimator can be extended to handle serial correlation of fixed order.

Are fairness opinions fair? The case of mergers and acquisitions☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 91(2), 179-207
Over the period 1994–2003, 80% of targets and 37% of acquirers obtain a third-party assessment of the fairness of a merger or acquisition. These fairness opinions do not affect deal outcomes when used by targets, but they affect deal outcomes when used by acquirers. The deal premium is lower in transactions if the acquirer obtains a fairness opinion, and is further reduced if multiple advisors provide an opinion. However, the acquirer's announcement-period return is 2.3% lower if the acquirer has a fairness opinion, especially if the acquirer pays a high premium, indicating that investors are skeptical of these transactions.

Adjusting the Value of a Statistical Life for Age and Cohort Effects

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2008 90(3), 573-581
To resolve the theoretical ambiguity in the effect of age on the value of statistical life (VSL), this article uses a novel, age-dependent fatal risk measure to estimate age-specific hedonic wage regressions. VSL exhibits an inverted-U-shaped relationship with age. In the year 2000 cross section, workers' VSL rises from $3.7 million (ages 18–24) to $9.7 million (35–44), and declines to $3.4 million (55–62). Controlling for birth-year cohort effects in a minimum distance estimator yields a peak VSL of $7.8 million at age 46, and flattens the age-VSL relationship. The value of statistical life-year also follows an inverted-U shape with age.

First Do No Harm? Tort Reform and Birth Outcomes*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2008 123(2), 795-830
In the 1980s and 1990s many states adopted tort reforms. It has been argued that these reforms have reduced the practice of defensive medicine arising from excess tort liability. We find that this does not appear to be true for a large and important class of cases—childbirth in the United States. Using data from national vital statistics natality files on millions of individual births from 1989 to 2001, we ask whether specific tort reforms affect the types of procedures that are performed, and the health outcomes of mothers and their infants. We find that reform of the Joint and Several Liability rule (or the “deep pockets rule”) reduces complications of labor and procedure use, whereas caps on noneconomic damages increase them. We show that these results are consistent with a model of tort reform that explicitly allows for variations in patient condition.

Board classification and managerial entrenchment: Evidence from the market for corporate control

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(3), 656-677
This paper considers the relation between board classification, takeover activity, and transaction outcomes for a panel of firms between 1990 and 2002. Target board classification does not change the likelihood that a firm, once targeted, is ultimately acquired. Moreover, shareholders of targets with a classified board realize bid returns that are equivalent to those of targets with a single class of directors, but receive a higher proportion of total bid surplus. Board classification does reduce the likelihood of receiving a takeover bid, however, the economic effect of bid deterrence on the value of the firm is quite small. Overall, the evidence is inconsistent with the conventional wisdom that board classification is an anti-takeover device that facilitates managerial entrenchment.

Disasters and the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty

American Economic Review 2008 98(2), 74-78
The combination of power utility and i.i.d. lognormal consumption growth makes for a benchmark model in which asset prices and expected returns can be found in closed form. Introducing the consumption-based model, John H. Cochrane (2005, 12) writes, “The combination of lognormal distributions and power utility is one of the basic tricks to getting analytical solutions in this kind of model.” A message of this paper is that the lognormality assumption can be relaxed without sacrificing tractability. Working under two assumptions—that there is a representative agent with power utility and that consumption growth is i.i.d.—I introduce, in Section I, a mathematical object (the cumulantgenerating function, or CGF) in terms of which four fundamental quantities that are at the heart of consumption-based asset pricing can be simply expressed. Those quantities are the equity premium, riskless rate, consumption-wealth ratio, and mean consumption growth. The expressions derived relate the fundamentals directly to the cumulants (equivalently, moments) of consumption growth. The lognormal assumption is equivalent to the assumption that all cumulants above the second are zero. If one is in the business of making up stochastic processes, many suggest themselves most naturally in continuous time. Although there is an obvious discrete-time analogue of Brownian motion—a random walk with Normally distributed increments—it is less natural to map Poisson processes, say, into discrete time, and therefore harder to deal with the possibility of jumps in consumption. In Section II, I show that these results carry over to the continuous-time setting. The i.i.d. growth assumption is replaced by its continuous-time analogue: log consumption is a Levy process. Disasters and the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty

The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City

Journal of Political Economy 2008 116(1), 38-81
In 1989, the government of Mexico City introduced a program, Hoy No Circula, that bans most drivers from using their vehicles one weekday per week on the basis of the last digit of the vehicle's license plate. This article measures the effect of the driving restrictions on air quality using high-frequency measures from monitoring stations. Across pollutants and specifications there is no evidence that the restrictions have improved air quality. Evidence from additional sources indicates that the restrictions led to an increase in the total number of vehicles in circulation as well as a change in composition toward high-emissions vehicles. (c) 2008 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Common Learning

Econometrica 2008 76(4), 909-933
Consider two agents who learn the value of an unknown parameter by observing a sequence of private signals. The signals are independent and identically distributed across time but not necessarily across agents. We show that when each agent's signal space is finite, the agents will commonly learn the value of the parameter, that is, that the true value of the parameter will become approximate common knowledge. The essential step in this argument is to express the expectation of one agent's signals, conditional on those of the other agent, in terms of a Markov chain. This allows us to invoke a contraction mapping principle ensuring that if one agent's signals are close to those expected under a particular value of the parameter, then that agent expects the other agent's signals to be even closer to those expected under the parameter value. In contrast, if the agents' observations come from a countably infinite signal space, then this contraction mapping property fails. We show by example that common learning can fail in this case.