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Flight-to-quality and correlation between currency and stock returns

Journal of Banking & Finance 2016 62, 191-212
We document that capital flows in and out of emerging or developed markets are sensitive to global equity market conditions. Capital tends to move out of emerging into developed countries in global down markets, leading to depreciation (appreciation) of emerging (developed) currencies. This generates a positive (negative) correlation between currency and equity in emerging (developed) markets which is amplified by the magnitude of the capital movement. We also verify that hedging currency risks may undo the natural hedge and increase the total return volatility under negative correlation.

Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(2), 341-376
Do macroeconomic conditions affect firms' abilities to raise capital? If so, how do they affect the manner in which the capital is raised? Using a large sample of publicly traded debt issues, seasoned equity offers, bank loans, and private placements of equity and debt, we find that a borrower's credit quality significantly affects its ability to raise capital during macroeconomic downturns. For noninvestment-grade borrowers, capital raising tends to be procyclical, while for investment-grade borrowers, it is countercyclical. Poor market conditions also affect the structure of securities offered, shifting them toward shorter maturities and more security. Overall, our results suggest that macroeconomic conditions influence the securities that firms issue to raise capital, the way in which these securities are structured, and indeed firms' ability to raise capital at all.

De-SPAC performance under better aligned sponsor contracts

Journal of Banking & Finance 2025 176, 107440
We examine the implications of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) in South Korea, where sponsor contracts are better aligned than in the U.S. Unlike in U.S. where SPAC targets (de-SPACs)' post-merger prices generally fall below the SPAC IPO offer price due to distorted incentives of the SPAC sponsors, Korean de-SPACs' prices tend to remain above the initial SPAC price. The better alignment of incentives results in positive or at least non-negative average buy-and-hold returns and excess portfolio returns in Korean de-SPACs, which contrast with the negative long-run performance observed in the U.S. Korean de-SPACs also increase investment more than matched private firms following the listing. Overall, our results suggest that better aligned sponsor contracts may incentivize sponsors to target high-quality firms, enhancing post-merger performance.