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A Market-Based Funding Liquidity Measure

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2019 9(2), 356-393
Abstract We construct a traded funding liquidity measure from stock returns. Guided by a model, we extract the measure as the return spread between two beta-neutral portfolios constructed using stocks with high and low margins, to control for their sensitivity to the aggregate funding shocks. Our measure of funding liquidity is correlated with other funding liquidity proxies. It delivers a positive risk premium that cannot be explained by existing risk factors. A model augmented by our funding liquidity measure has superior pricing performance for various portfolios. Despite evident comovement, this measure contains additional information that is not subsumed by market liquidity. Received March 29, 2017; accepted August 8, 2018 by Editor Wayne Ferson.

Seeing the Unobservable from the Invisible: The Role of CO2 in Measuring Consumption Risk

Review of Finance 2018 22(3), 977-1009
Abstract In contrast to past studies that assume service flow of durable goods consumption to be a constant fraction of the stock, we study a consumption-based asset pricing model featuring time-varying utilization of durable goods. We propose an innovative measure of the unobserved usage of durable goods from carbon dioxide emissions. We find that the time-varying utilization of durable goods is a valid pricing factor. Our model exhibits a stronger cross-sectional pricing power than several consumption-based capital asset pricing models, including Yogo’s (2006) durable goods model. Finally, our model mitigates the joint risk premium and implied risk-free rate puzzle.

A Performance Comparison of Large-n Factor Estimators

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2018 8(1), 153-182
We evaluate the performance of various methods for estimating factor returns in an approximate factor model. Differences across estimators are most pronounced when there is cross-sectional heteroscedasticity or when cross-sectional sample sizes, n, have fewer than 4,000 assets. Estimators incorporating either cross-sectional or time-series heteroscedasticity outperform the other estimators when those types of heteroscedasticity are present. The differences are most pronounced when the cross-sectional sample is small. Received December 2, 2015; editorial decision May 16, 2017 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.

Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 75, 98-108 open access
This paper investigates the source of price momentum in the stock market using information from options markets. We provide direct evidence of the gradual information diffusion model in Hong and Stein (1999): momentum profits are larger for stocks whose information diffuses slowly into the stock market. We exploit the options markets to identify stocks with slow information diffusion speed. As informed traders trade options to realize the information that has not been fully incorporated in the stock price, we are able to enhance the momentum strategy by selecting winner/loser stocks with high growth/large drop in call option implied volatility. Our empirical strategy generates a risk-adjusted alpha of 1.8% per month over the 1996–2011 period, during which the simple momentum strategy fails to perform. The results are robust to the impact of earnings announcement, transaction costs, industry concentration, and choice of options’ moneyness and time-to-maturity. Finally, our finding is not driven by existing stock- or option-related characteristics that are known to improve momentum.

The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(1), 42-71
The upsurge of shadow banking is typically driven by rising financing demand from certain real sectors. In China, the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2009 was behind the rapid growth of shadow banking after 2012, expediting the development of Chinese corporate bond markets in the poststimulus period. Chinese local governments financed the stimulus through bank loans in 2009 and then resorted to nonbank debt financing after 2012 when faced with rollover pressure from bank debt coming due. Cross-sectionally, using a political-economy-based instrument, we show that provinces with greater bank loan growth in 2009 experienced more municipal corporate bond issuance during 2012–2015, together with more shadow banking activities including trustloans and wealth management products. China’s poststimulus experience exhibits similarities to financial market development during the US National Banking Era.

Investor Sentiment and the Pricing of Characteristics-Based Factors

Review of Financial Studies 2025 38(12), 3580-3625
Abstract Previous research has revealed that return spreads between stocks with high and low characteristics-based factor beta remain insignificant. This study investigates the time variation in the pricing of various characteristics-based factors, uncovering a notable two-regime pattern: high-beta portfolios yield higher returns than low-beta portfolios after high-sentiment periods, while the opposite occurs after low-sentiment periods. Remarkably, this two-regime pattern is completely reversed for macro factors. Mutual fund and hedge fund returns corroborate these findings. Our results suggest that exposure to characteristics-based factors likely represents mispricing levels, particularly during high-sentiment periods, whereas exposure to macro factors likely represents risk, particularly during low-sentiment periods.

Pledgeability and Asset Prices: Evidence from the Chinese Corporate Bond Markets

Journal of Finance 2023 78(5), 2563-2620 open access
ABSTRACT We provide causal evidence on the value of asset pledgeability by exploiting a unique feature of Chinese corporate bond markets: bonds with identical fundamentals are traded on two segmented markets with different rules for repo transactions. Using a policy shock that rendered AA+ and AA bonds ineligible for repo on one market only, we compare how bond prices changed across markets and rating classes around this event. When the haircut increases from 0% to 100%, bond yields increase by 39 bps to 85 bps. These estimates help us infer the magnitude of the shadow cost of capital in China.