Knowledge that Transforms

Using novel firm-level microdata and leveraging a natural experiment, this paper provides causal evidence for the role of trade and multinational firms in the cross-country transmission of shocks. The scope for trade linkages to generate cross-country spillovers depends on the elasticity of substitution with respect to domestic inputs. Using the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake as an exogenous shock, we structurally estimate production elasticities at the firm level and find greater complementarities in input usage than previously thought. For Japanese affiliates in the United States, output falls roughly one-for-one with declines in imports, consistent with a relationship between imported and domestic inputs that is close to Leontief.

We study regression discontinuity designs when covariates are included in the estimation. We examine local polynomial estimators that include discrete or continuous covariates in an additive separable way, but without imposing any parametric restrictions on the underlying population regression functions. We recommend a covariate-adjustment approach that retains consistency under intuitive conditions and characterize the potential for estimation and inference improvements. We also present new covariate-adjusted mean-squared error expansions and robust bias-corrected inference procedures, with heteroskedasticity-consistent and cluster-robust standard errors. We provide an empirical illustration and an extensive simulation study. All methods are implemented in R and Stata software packages.

We study how individuals repay their debt using linked data on multiple credit cards. Repayments are not allocated to the higher interest rate card, which would minimize the cost of borrowing. Moreover, the degree of misallocation is invariant to the economic stakes, which is inconsistent with optimization frictions. Instead, we show that repayments are consistent with a balance-matching heuristic under which the share of repayments on each card is matched to the share of balances on each card. Balance matching captures more than half of the predictable variation in repayments and is highly persistent within individuals over time.

Media censorship is a hallmark of authoritarian regimes. We conduct a field experiment in China to measure the effects of providing citizens with access to an uncensored internet. We track subjects’ media consumption, beliefs regarding the media, economic beliefs, political attitudes, and behaviors over 18 months. We find four main results: (i) free access alone does not induce subjects to acquire politically sensitive information; (ii) temporary encouragement leads to a persistent increase in acquisition, indicating that demand is not permanently low; (iii) acquisition brings broad, substantial, and persistent changes to knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, and intended behaviors; and (iv) social transmission of information is statistically significant but small in magnitude. We calibrate a simple model to show that the combination of low demand for uncensored information and the moderate social transmission means China’s censorship apparatus may remain robust to a large number of citizens receiving access to an uncensored internet.

Previous article FreeJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two YearsPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two Years Outcome of 1st Round DecisionsMean Days to DecisionMedian Days to DecisionDecision Later than Six Months after Submission (as percentage of decisions within decision type)Desk Rejection50%970%Reject with Reviews42%1239416%Revise9%18415138%Average time from original submission to acceptance (omitting time with author in revision) = 457 daysView Table Image Previous article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 127, Number 5October 2019 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/705908 © 2019 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous article FreeJPE Turnaround TimesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two Years Outcome of 1st Round DecisionsMean Days to DecisionMedian Days to DecisionDecision Later than Six Months after Submission (as percentage of decisions within decision type)Desk Rejection55%1070%Reject with Reviews36%13610122%Revise9%21418149% Previous article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 127, Number 1February 2019 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/702725 © 2019 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Eliot AbramsDaron AcemogluDavid AlbouyS. Nageeb AliTreb AllenRicardo AlonsoMichael AndersonSiwan AndersonPeter ArcidiaconoBrian AsquithEduardo AzevedoMiguel BallesterMichael BarnettDaniel BarronMarco BattagliniChristian BayerSamuel BazziMartin BerajaDan BernhardtDebopam BhattacharyaManudeep BhullerJavier BianchiAlexander BickLuigi BocolaPietro BonaldiYann BramoulleGiulia BrancaccioAriel BursteinLeonardo BursztynSteven CallanderClément CarbonnierMariana CarreraGabriel CarrollJohn CawleyThomas ChaneyGary CharnessGabe Chodorow-ReichGregory ClarkKaren ClayGiovanni CompianiChris ConlonAnna CostelloJose CuestaWei CuiBrendan DaleyEduardo DavilaAluma DemboMichael DinersteinJonathan DingelWill DobbieDavid DornOrla DoyleAllan DrazenGilles DurantonPiotr DworczakJonathan EatonTore EllingsenBenjamin EnkeHuberto EnnisSeda ErtacPablo FajgelbaumEugene FamaHanming FangRobert FeenstraDavid FiglioMarc FleurbaeyChao FuWilliam FuchsIngvil GaarderJorge GarciaJonah GelbachGeorge GeorgiadisUri GneezyLawrence GoulderBen GreinerJonathan GruberRaymond GuiterasYingni GuoMarina HalacYoram HalevyRobert HallMariaflavia HarariTorfinn HardingZhiguo HeMagnus HennlockMoshe HoffmanRichard HornbeckJoel HorowitzMartin HuberJohn Eric HumphriesReshmaan HussamShota IchihashiKoichiro ItoGregor JaroschOlof Johansson-StenmanCharles JonesBoyan JovanovicJoseph KaboskiVishal KamatLouis KaplowDean KarlanTodd KeisterJun Hyung KimAndras KissTobias KleinNarayana KocherlakotaRalph KoijenYunmi KongKlaus KulttiPablo KurlatGuy LaroqueEdwin LeuvenSteven LevittEthan LieberMikael LindahlIlse LindenlaubElliot LipnowskiJeremy LiseGeorge LoewensteinKatrine LokenJay LuJingfeng LuMichael LucaJens LudwigXiang MaLorenzo MagnolfiAnup MalaniKalina ManovaIourii ManovskiiPaola ManziniGuillermo MarshallGiovanni MastrobuoniArnaud MaurelBhashkar MazumderMoritz Meyer-ter-VehnJianjun MiaoAlejandro MolnarDilip MookherjeeAbhishek NagarajDavid NeumarkBenjamin OlkenGerard Padro i MiquelKrishna PendakurJesse PerlaMichael PetersMichael PowellEugenio ProtoDavid RahmanUday RajanStanley ReynoldsJames RobertsArthur RobsonGuillaume RocheteauDavid RodinaEsteban Rossi-HansbergAldo RustichiniEmmanuel SaezBernard SalaniePhilipp Schmidt-DenglerErik SchokkaertJoshua SchwartzsteinDavid SeimMaya SenAli ShouridehHolger SiegRon SiegelAlp SimsekHenry SiuVasiliki SkretaAlex SolisPeter SorensenJohannes SpinnewijnCharles SprengerTodd StinebricknerAdam StoreygardDavid StrombergBalazs SzentesIna TanevaTymon TaturDmitry TaubinskyJeff ThurkKatrin TinnPetra ToddNick TsivanidisViktor TsyrennikovMaxim UlrichGabriel UlysseaMiguel UrquiolaJohn Van ReenenRichard van WeeldenDimitri VayanosFrederic VermeulenHans VothChristopher WaltersMike WaughLucy WhiteAlexander WolitzkyMaisy WongWenhao WuHuseyin YildirimKiho YoonSevgi YukselAndy ZapechelnyukJin Zhou Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 127, Number 3June 2019 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/704688 © 2019 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Richard AkreshS. Nageeb AliFranklin AllenSiwan AndersonIsaiah AndrewsJose ApesteguiaAndrew AtkesonHeski Bar-IsaacPhilip BarrettBrian BeachJonathan BeauchampDaniel BenjaminRaquel BernalDan BernhardtV BhaskarAnna BindlerAndreas BlumeAlessandro BonattiOzan CandoganTimothy CasonDavid CesariniChristopher ChambersDamon ClarkAlain CohnJanet CurrieXianchi DaiErnesto Dal BoRafael Di TellaWill DobbieUlrich DoraszelskiMartin DufwenbergKeith EricsonSelman ErolJason FabermanJames FearonRaymond FismanChristopher FlinnAnthony FowlerXavier GabaixSebastian GalianiYana GallenPeter GanongRonald GoettlerRussell GolmanBenjamin GolubGautam GowrisankaranJeff GroggerGene GrossmanLars HansenTerrence HendershottHolger HerzRandi HjalmarssonMitchell HoffmanRichard HoldenRichard HornbeckPatrick HummelMitsuru IgamiLakshmi IyerPamela JakielaSeema JayachandranRobert JensenIan JewittLouis KaplowMichael KatzRalph KoijenFuhito KojimaAnton KolotilinSerhiy KozakAlbert KyleJoanna LaheyRasmus LandersoeFabian LangeAudrey LaporteBrad LarsenJohn LeahySangMok LeeLars LefgrenArik LevinsonShengwu LiAnnie LiangIlse LindenlaubMatthew LindquistBenjamin LockwoodLee LockwoodAlexander MackayJames MalcomsonMarco MariottiPaco MartorellGiovanni MastrobuoniR. McAfeeRyan McDevittXin MengRobert MoffittBenny MoldovanuFrancesca MolinariJack MountjoySharun MukandRichard MurphyDavid NeumarkPaul NiehausSam NorrisEmily OsterMichaela PagelAmanda PallaisLubos PastorAlessandro PavanJacopo PeregoRicardo Perez-TrugliaPetra PerssonRobert PollakJoseph PriceNancy QianNatalia RamondoChris RobinsonJames RobinsonGuillaume RocheteauAnne-Katrin RoeslerWilliam RogersonAdam RosenNilanjan RoyAldo RustichiniMartin SaavedraJohn SabelhausBernard SalanieTobias SalzAndres SantosAndrew SchotterEmanuela SciubbaEdson SeverniniDaniel SilvermanOskar SkansIsaac SorkinCharles SprengerYves SprumontBruno StruloviciMatthias SutterAlexander TabarrokMathieu Taschereau-DumouchelAlan TaylorMelissa ThomassonChristopher TimminsMirco ToninEric Van WincoopJoseph VavraEmanuel VespaSofia Villas-BoasReed WalkerTodd WalkerChristopher WallaceEbonya WashingtonDavid WettsteinDavid WheelockHeidi WilliamsEdward WolffThomas WollmannLeeat YarivNoam YuchtmanJohn Yiran ZhuOwen ZidarJames Ziliak Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 127, Number 4August 2019 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/705558 © 2019 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two YearsPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two Years Outcome of 1st Round DecisionsMean Days to DecisionMedian Days to DecisionDecision Later than Six Months after Submission (as percentage of decisions within decision type)Desk Rejection48%970%Reject with Reviews43%1199514%Revise9%18215639%Average time from original submission to acceptance (omitting time with author in revision) = 449 daysView Table Image Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 127, Number 6December 2019 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/707240 © 2019 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.