Knowledge that Transforms

This paper argues that welfare economics should be restored to a prominent place on the agenda of economists, and should occupy a central role in the teaching of economics. Economists should provide justification for the ethical criteria underlying welfare statements, and these criteria require constant re-evaluation in the light of developments in economic analysis and in moral philosophy. Economists need to be more explicit about the relation between welfare criteria and the objectives of governments, policy-makers and individual citizens. Moreover, such a restoration of welfare economics should be accompanied by consideration of the adoption of an ethical code for the economics profession.

Racial restrictive covenants are private agreements prohibiting sale, rental, use or occupancy of properties by persons of designated races, ethnicities, nationalities and religions. Widely acknowledged for facilitating residential segregation, the Supreme Court ruled covenants unenforceable in 1948. Yet they remained legal to write and reference, allowing realtors, banks, insurers, title companies and government agencies to continue to rely on unenforceable covenants in their decisions and policies. Beyond legal enforceability, covenants were essentially signals that coordinated the behavior of a variety of private individual and institutional actors—signals that remained effective without the courts. Evidence is presented to support this claim.

Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distribution. Our results suggest that, especially for lower ability students, ex ante returns may differ substantially from typical estimates of the returns to a college degree, and typical estimates of the selectivity premium may be underestimated.

In tracking the later-generation descendants of immigrants, measurement biases can arise from “ethnic attrition” (e.g., US-born individuals who do not self-identify as Mexican despite having ancestors who immigrated from Mexico). We present evidence that such ethnic attrition is sizeable and selective for the third-generation populations of key Hispanic and Asian immigrant groups. In addition, our results suggest that ethnic attrition generates biases that vary across national origin groups in direction as well as magnitude, and that correcting for these biases will raise the socioeconomic standing of the US-born descendants of most Hispanic immigrants relative to their Asian counterparts.

Borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners was responsible for a significant fraction of the rise in US household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and the increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008. Instrumental variables estimation shows that homeowners extracted 25 cents for every dollar increase in home equity. Home equity–based borrowing was stronger for younger households and households with low credit scores. The evidence suggests that borrowed funds were used for real outlays. Home equity–based borrowing added $1.25 trillion in household debt from 2002 to 2008, and accounts for at least 39 percent of new defaults from 2006 to 2008. JEL: D14, R31

In 2005–2008, over a dozen put warrants traded in China went so deep out of the money that they were almost certain to expire worthless. Nonetheless, each warrant was traded more than three times each day at substantially inflated prices. This bubble is unique in that the underlying stock prices make warrant fundamentals publicly observable and that warrants have predetermined finite maturities. This sample allows us to examine a set of bubble theories. In particular, our analysis highlights the joint effects of short-sales constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in driving bubbles and confirms several key findings of the experimental bubble literature. (JEL G12, G13, O16, P34)

We use data from highway procurement auctions subject to California's Small Business Preference program to study the effect of bid preferences on auction outcomes. Our analysis is based on an estimated model of firms' bidding and participation decisions, which allows us to evaluate the effects of current and alternative policy designs. We show that incorporating participation responses significantly alters the assessment of preferential treatment policies. (JEL D44, H76, R42)

Relative cross-border retail prices, in a common currency, comove closely with the nominal exchange rate. Using product-level prices and wholesale costs from a grocery chain operating in the United States and Canada, we decompose this variation into relative costs and markup components. The high correlation of nominal and real exchange rates is driven mainly by changes in relative costs. National borders segment markets. Retail prices respond to changes in costs in neighboring stores within the same country but not across the border. Prices have a median discontinuous change of 24 percent at the border and 0 percent at state boundaries. (JEL F31, L11, L81)

By extending his data, we document the instability of low-frequency regression coefficients that Lucas (1980) used to express the quantity theory of money. We impute the differences in these regression coefficients to differences in monetary policies across periods. A DSGE model estimated over a subsample like Lucas's implies values of the regression coefficients that confirm Lucas's results for his sample period. But perturbing monetary policy rule parameters away from the values estimated over Lucas's subsample alters the regression coefficients in ways that reproduce their instability over our longer sample. (JEL C51, E23, E31, E43, E51, E52)

Using a unique dataset, we test whether households' deductible choices in auto and home insurance reflect stable risk preferences. Our test relies on a structural model that assumes households are objective expected utility maximizers and claims are generated by household-coverage specific Poisson processes. We find that the hypothesis of stable risk preferences is rejected by the data. Our analysis suggests that many households exhibit greater risk aversion in their home deductible choices than their auto deductible choices. Our results are robust to several alternative modeling assumptions. (JEL D11, D83)